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Stacks, predictions, and a position-by-position breakdown of the hitters you’ll need in your DFS lineups today!
Today’s main slate has an early 1 PM start time on Labor Day. I will be on the livestream with DC at 11:00am EST. I’ll also be doing the morning line with Corey first thing in the morning, so I’m trying to get this article out early, which unfortunately means without the benefit of the lineups being released. With that in mind, make sure you tune in to the livestream and/or check the lineups as they get issued to make sure all of these guys are actually playing. With that said, it is a fun little 8 game slate.
Six of the pitchers on this slate are guys whose numbers pop up on my sheet as great ones to target bats against. In no particular order, they are Drew Smyly @ Cincinnati, Justus Sheffield @ Cubs, Asher Wojciechowski @ Tampa Bay, Jordan Zimmerman against Minnesota, Joe Ross against the Mets, and Tyler Beede @ St. Louis. On any given slate, those six guys would be likely candidates to stack against and we got all of them on the same slate today.
Other teams have some superb individual matchups to attack as well, but each of these pitchers has something about them that makes them stackable against. Much of it is a combination of not having good splits to either handedness of batter, giving up too many homers, or just not being able to throw enough strikes to get deep into games. Some right-handed bats against Waguespack, and some lefties against Wainwright and DeSclafani are also likely to make the list here, but with so many good options to stack against, I will probably be avoiding stacks against some of those guys who have good splits to one side of the plate or the other. I’d rather pick out a few bats against those types of pitchers and blend them in with my stacks against the total dumpster fires on the mound littering this slate.
ATL, MIN, TB
CIN, NYM, STL
Chalk Home Run
10% Home Run
1% Home Run
Gary Sanchez – Mike Minor is solid, but he is giving up more hard contact than usual and his ERA is a more than a run below his xFIP. I’m not saying he sucks, but he really is not as good as some of the numbers say. The Yanks are elite against lefties and Sanchez is one of the best with a 122 wRC+ since 2016 and a near .300 ISO score.
Travis D’Arnaud – I don’t really like D’Arnaud as a one off, but I like the Rays as a team and he’s still hitting in the middle of that order. He was on fire for about a month and has cooled off severely since then. Still Asher Wojciechowski is a gas can, which means anyone against him is viable.
Tucker Barnhart – I was hoping this would be Curt Casali, but he caught the late game against the Cards yesterday. Either way anyone swinging a stick from the right side against Drew Smyly is worth a look, especially when the game is in a bandbox like The Great American Ballpark.
Paul Goldschmidt – IT really is not the best day for first baseman. I debated Freddie Freeman vs. Goldschmidt but ultimately, I was a little concerned with lefties against Waguespack, so I choose Goldy as my #1 today. Tyler Beede sucks and has sucked to both sides of the plate. Furthermore he has allowed almost 2 HR/9 this year. Goldy is better against lefties, but his numbers against righties are still above league average with a 126 wRC+, a .368 wOBA, and a .215 ISO score against RHP.
Ji-Man Choi – Tampa is one of the best teams to stack up today and one of the better values is Ji Man Choi. None of the Tampa Bats are elite, but they have a lot of guys that are above average against righties and Choi is one of those with around a 120 wRC+. Really this play is more about how bad Asher Wojciechowski and the Orioles bullpen are. The Rays should put up some runs and Choi’s price points are friendly.
Brandon Belt – Adam Wainwright is still tough on righties, but he’s been dreadful to left-handed bats. Brandon Belt has put up a couple of big games lately and does still profile well against righties. Over the last three years he owns a 123 wRC+ with a .350+ wOBA and an ISO score over .200. Plus he’s discounted from other options at the position if you need to save a little bit today.
Eric Sogard – Almost by default Sogard ends up in the #1 spot here today. Again, picking on Wojciechowski is always a smart thing to do and Sogard is a guy who has hit righties well throughout his career. He’s not cheap, but he should be leading off for an offense that looks good top to bottom here today.
Luis Arraez – I love Arraez today. First off, the Twins have one of the highest team totals on the slate with over 6 runs projected. Arraez actually has the top numbers on the team for a lefty to attack Zimmerman with. His 132 wRC+ and .373 wOBA are elite, although he does lack power with a low ISO score. HE tends to hit in the middle of that order and is facing a guy that lefties have demolished in 2019.
Brad Miller – Low owned cheap GPP HR upside guy today. Anthony DeSclafani sucks against Lefties who own a .378 wOBA against him with 16 homers in 62 innings of work in 2019. His career #s are about the same. Miller is a late addition to the Phillies order, and he has some pop with over a .200 ISO. Miller is a guy who could give you a cheap HR today at low ownership in a very good matchup in a HR friendly ballpark.
Kris Bryant – Honestly one of my favorite plays on the day. Bryant has been terrorizing lefties with a 174 wRC+, a .438 wOBA, and a .310 ISO score since 2016. He also hits well in same handed spots, so even after the rookie Sheffield is chased from the game, the matchups are not going to be bad for Bryant. Third base is stacked here today, but Bryant stands head and shoulders over everyone else for me.
Eugenio Suarez – Suarez is also an elite bat against LHP and he draws a weak one in Drew Smyly here today. In 5 August starts, Smyly pitched 25 innings, gave up 22 runs, and did so while allowing 9 homers. Those numbers are dreadfully bad. Suarez has a 149 wRC+ score since 2016 with a .402 wOBA and a .269 ISO score against lefties and this game is in his home bandbox ballpark too.
Josh Donaldson – A very nice GPP play that should come in lowish owned. Jacob Waguespack is not good, but his numbers have been surprisingly worse to same handed hitters. Donaldson even in same handed matchups still owns a 142 wRC+ with a .386 wOBA and a .261 ISO score. The Braves project for a big number today and Donaldson has a lot of upside at what should be decent to low ownership given the depth of talent at 3rd base.
Javier Baez – Another Cub with elite numbers against LHP. Baez owns a 135 wRC+ score with a .377 wOBA and a .252 ISO score. Those are elite level numbers at any position, but especially good when it comes to Shortstop eligible players. Young Justus Sheffield does have some K upside, but he’s also been shelled in his first few attempts against legit major league hitters.
Jorge Polanco – Any exposure to the Twins and that high total today is warranted and Polanco does profile well. Zimmerman has sucked against lefties and Polanco does own a solid 118 wRC+ against southpaws since 2016.
Willy Adames – Another Tampa bay here, so we don’t have to get into the horrible Orioles pitching stats. Adames is very interesting. Shortstop is not an elite position, and this is a guy who has really good numbers with near a 120 wRC+. I don’t love that he likely hits 6-9 in the order today, but he’s a slight discount to other options and does have the numbers that profile well.
Nick Castellanos – The third of the elite Cubs bats against LHP. Castellanos has always hit lefties well and now he is in an order where he actually has some protection while doing so. His 144 wRC+ is elite since 2016 and the matchup with the struggling rookie Sheffield should be an easy one for him. .386 wOBA and .252 ISO score are both elite.
Ronald Acuna – We mentioned Waguespack has struggled getting out the righties and Acuna is nearly as elite as Josh Donaldson in those same handed spots. HE owns a .370 wOBA, .230 ISO score and a 128 wRC+. The Braves project for a big number at home against the Jays and if they get there Acuna is likely to have done some of the damage.
Marcell Ozuna – Tyler Beede is giving up nearly 2 HR/9 this year and sucks against righties and lefties. Ozuna has power and although his numbers are not elite, the soft matchup still makes him a guy to fear.
Aristides Aquino – I know the sample size is small, but in 23 at-bats since being called up, he has over a .500 wOBA and ISO score against lefties. That’s 261 wRC+. Now we all know it won’t be able to stay that high forever, but it does show the kid can mash, especially against southpaws.
Bryce Harper – Anthony DeSclafani has two major weaknesses. One is left-handed bats who own a .378 wOBA against him this year. The other is power hitters as he has served up a ton of homers. The Phillies get a park bump moving to an even better HR park than the one they currently call home. Balls tend to fly out of Cincy. Harper has elite power and an elite matchup in an elite HR hitting park. He’s struck out a ton this year, but when he does make contact, it’s game over.
Michael Conforto – Joe Ross has severe splits. He always has and this year is no exception. In fact if anything he’s been worse to both sides of the plate this year. Ross is lights out to righties, so this is not the best day to jump on Pete Alonso. He’s dreadful thought to lefties and the Mets now have a bunch of left-handed outfielders that all profile well here. Conforto has the most upside of the lefties, but he’s also expensive. Still I have a lot of faith in them against a guy who has not been able to figure out how to get lefties out his entire career. Don’t Forget about Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo. Both are back from injury and also project and profile well against a weak righty.
Nick Senzel – Aquino is the elite power bat, but Senzel is solid too. He might lack the power upside, but he’s another righty facing Smyly who has not been able to get righties out. The ballpark is tiny, so HR upside is in play and his price is a tad cheaper than Aquino, so he is easier to fit in.
Mike Yastrzemski – Adam Wainwright has sucked against lefties and Mikey Yaz is a legit MLB bat. The Grandson of Carl Yastrzemski has looked good and flashed decent power since his call up. He has a solid 111 wRC+, but a real big .282 ISO score and the way to get to Wainwright is with lefties. Do I love him? No, but he’s worth including on a list of GPP options.
Austin Meadows – Austin Meadows is the best pure hitter on the Rays, who have one of the best possible matchups today against the weak Orioles pitching. HE is another of that group of bats that own around a 120 wRC+ for the Rays. The Rays entire lineup is in play and many of them are slightly in that range. Kevin Kiermaier is another good option to look at here for a price savings as a lefty facing Wojciechowski.
Eddie Rosario – The Twins are in an elite spot here today. Rosario has a lot of upside himself. Zimmerman has sucked against those left-handed hitters and Rosario is one of the better ones the Twins have. He’ll likely be hitting cleanup for the team with one of the highest totals on the board here today and most guys doing that are priced up more than he is.
Phillip Ervin – One of the cheaper options on DK today that makes a whole lot of sense. I was shocked by his price was so low. Drew Smyly pretty much has been a pitching machine last month and Ervin’s numbers in a small sample size are only slightly behind the elite Eugenio Suarez. Ervin has a 144 wRC+, .395 wOBA, and a .233 ISO score against lefties. The ballpark is favorable, the matchup is favorable, and his price point is very easy to swallow. All of those things combined make him a great option here today.
Cash Game Breakdown