No shortage of games on a big 14-game slate this Wednesday for MLB DFS. We usually end up with more of a split slate on Wednesdays with 7-9 games on the main slate, so this is nice to see from a GPP perspective as it will help keep some ownership spread out and keep chalky plays a tad less chalky.
We do have a Coors game and with the current trend being that we’re seeing fewer projected runs everywhere else in the majors late in the year, the totals in this game tower over the rest of the field today. We have a handful of teams at 5.5 expected runs, but both teams in that game are projected for more.
The Rockies are the underdog and project just shy of 6 runs today and the favorite Cardinals have a total nearly two runs higher than everyone but the Rockies at near 7.5 runs. I hate to say it, but it’s tough not to want to have exposure here tonight. The slate does have 14 games on it, so we may not see chalk get as highly owned as usual with more options to spread out that ownership. This only makes the Coors teams more interesting to me.
If you wanted to fade Coors, we do have a few spots that interest me. The Yankees, Nationals, White Sox, and Dodgers project for about 5.5 runs today, but be careful as all four of those games have some rain expected. It’s too early in the day to get too worried about it, but definitely keep an eye on it. All of those teams project for near 5.5 runs and would be places to look for offensive production. Even the Braves are at 5+ runs today and also have some weather concerns.
The one team with a high projected total and no rain concerns outside of Coors field is the Red Sox facing Trent Thorton up in the Rogers Centre. That’s a spot we should definitely be looking at as a top swerve off of the chalky Coors game.
Top Stacks: Cardinals, Rockies (This should be the chalk as both team totals are higher than any other game on this slate)
Secondary Stacks: Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees
Top HR Call: George Springer/Justin Turner
10% HR Call: Shohei Ohtani
5% HR Call: Aristedes Aquino
- Gary Sanchez – I don’t love paying up for Sanchez today, and that game does have rain, but he is the highest projected catcher in my rankings. Sanchez doesn’t have a soft matchup against Matt Boyd, but he crushes lefties and Boyd has been known to give up some homers. That makes Sanchez the highest upside guy on a team with a solidly high projected total. He also has good lineup real estate.
- Yasmani Grandal – No Yelich has repercussions throughout the lineup, but Grandal is still projected highly today. Like Sanchez, he isn’t cheap. Also, like Sanchez, he has good lineup real estate and upside because of his power.
- Tony Wolters – His price is pretty cheap, at least relative to other guys in this amazingly high total game. Wolters is not elite by any stretch, but he has a very cheap price that gets you a little exposure to this game. It’s more a price play than me loving him today, but it’s not a bad idea if you need to save salary.
- Freddie Freeman – Freeman is my #1 projected first base option today. I’m not going to argue with anyone who uses either of the Coors first baseman, but I think Freeman has a better chance to be low owned in a GPP and just as good a chance to be the top scoring first base option on the day. Eflin has been solid, but I like the Braves park shift to Philly and the lefty does project best here.
- Daniel Murphy – It is hard to get away from that $3400 FD price point today in the highest total game. Murphy hits in the middle of the order and has the right splits as a lefty facing Dakota Hudson. He is not the biggest HR threat, but he can certainly rack up hits and RBIs with his placement in that lineup. He lost his 2B eligibility on DK, so you are forced to play him at first base, but even there the $4400 price tag is a discount to a lot of the higher end options and he projects for just as many points. Like him more in cash than GPPs, but he’s viable in all formats.
- David Freese – Freese has always hit lefties well and he tends to see himself higher up in the order against them, too. His price point on a projected high total team is a little too cheap. He’s $2700 on FD, but a very expensive $5300 on DK. On DK you can swerve off of him to a guy like Ji-Man Choi who also hits up in the order and has the a good matchup today in hot Texas weather against Ariel Jurado.
- Jose Altuve – Altuve vs. a lefty. I can stop there and you should understand why he’s a good play. Altuve has been well above league average, even elite against lefties since he came into the league. We have other options at different price points I am interested in, but Altuve has the highest ceiling at the position today and most days.
- Nick Solak – Don’t blame you if you said you didn’t, but you should know this guy’s name by now. Solak has been hitting clean up lately for the Rangers and putting up some big games. The Rays are likely to throw a bunch of pitchers today, so talking about his matchups is tough to do, but the hitting weather in Texas is ideal and the ball flies out of that park. Solak has prime lineup real estate, a decent price, and not a tough matchup on paper, so he is definitely in play.
- Kolten Wong – So many good options didn’t make my list here. Guys like Ozzie Albies and Eric Sogard also project well. Wong just projects better in terms of both raw points and points per dollar in the same price range. He has been hitting near the top of the Cardinals order and producing lately. Not only that, but he is on the road team in Coors, which guarantees him close to max at-bats. They do have the monster team total today, so he’s literally in the best spot.
- Rafael Devers – The Red Sox are flying a bit under the radar and do have a big team total. They draw a weak pitcher in Trent Thorton and get a park boost as Toronto is a hitter’s paradise. Devers crushes right-handed pitching too, so he checks off a lot of boxes.
- Justin Turner – Turner draws a good matchup too against a lefty today. He projects slightly lower than Devers, but it is very close. This is more of a 1 and 1A situation in all game types for me tonight. Not only does he project well against Means, but they get a big park boost and one of the weakest bullpens in baseball to feast on in the late innings. Depending on how GPP rosters shape up, I’ll likely have exposure to both of these guys both on stacks and as one offs where I need a 3B option.
- Jeimer Candelario – If you need to save, the guy I like most is Candelario. He’s hitting in the meat of the Detroit order and has always been good against lefties. He draws an aging CC Sabathia, who has struggled with right-handed bats. Candelario is dirt cheap at $2300 on FanDuel and is a guy with upside. He’s my favorite salary saver if the weather holds off and that game plays.
- Trevor Story – He’s going to be chalky, but Story projects for the biggest number at the position today by a wide margin. I do prefer him against lefties, but I can’t ignore the huge projection and the huge team total in a hitter’s paradise like Colorado.
- Paul DeJong – The other side of the Coors game, and I know it sucks, but these two guys are the two best options. DeJong is more GPPish as I trust Story more for consistency. Still DeJong plays on the team with the monster total and does hit in a nice spot in the middle of that order. He has HR upside and in Coors could rack up a few extra base hits and RBI even if he doesn’t go yard. I tried to avoid too many guys from this game at other positions even though all of them are worthy of being played, but at SS I think I’ll eat the chalk even on my GPP lineups.
- Alex Bregman – I do prefer the Coors guys here, but can’t leave Bregman off. As elite as the Astros are against lefties, Bregman might even be the best of the group. His SS eligibility is a game changer as well, because we have lots of solid third base options daily, but at SS we tend to only have a few and literally everyday this guy pops up highly on my SS screener. He’s elite against both handedness of pitching.
- Jean Segura – Segura is $3K on Fanduel, so you get a nice savings from the Coors bats. He also is a guy who has always hit lefties well and should find himself up top of that order against one today. In terms of upside, he is nowhere near the more expensive Coors options, but he should be lower owned and is friendlier on the budget if you can’t afford to get up to them.
- George Springer – Springer is a monster against lefties. Not only does he rack up hits from on top of that order, but his power numbers are much better against them too. The top of that Astros order literally jumps off the page with how well they hit lefties and Springer deserves mention as a top overall outfield option today.
- Charlie Blackmon – Huge projection for him and he does have his preferred split here. I try not to over jam all the Coors bats into a write up because really everyone in that game is a good play. Blackmon makes it because I think he is a great play and it says a lot to get over the extra high bar and still make it in the lineup. As part of a stack, as a one off, or even as one of the bats on the other side of a Cardinals stack to capture more upside in this game, I think Blackmon makes a lot of sense today.
- Marcel Ozuna – The elite bat in the middle of that Cardinals order playing in Coors today. Senzatela is a guy we can pick on and the park boost and highest total by a wide margin makes me want to do so. Ozuna is arguably the guy with the highest upside on the team and his huge projection today is warranted, and so is the high price.
- AJ Pollock – Pollock draws a lefty here and a weak one in a great hitter’s park in Baltimore. I know Means was an all-star, but he pitched well above his head to start the year and has come back down to earth. Pollock has been moved up in the lineup against lefties before and I assume he gets moved up here again today. Plus, we always have an ace in the hole with a few ABs against a horrible bullpen in a hitter friendly stadium late in the game for the road team guaranteed 27 outs. Oh, and they have one of the highest totals, too.
- Aristedes Aquino – Aquino has a very small sample size against lefties, but, my god, the numbers are insane. They will regress some as he would be the greatest hitter in baseball history against lefties if they didn’t, but the takeaway is that he should still end up with well above average to elite numbers as the sample size grows. He’ll likely be lowish owned today and has huge GPP potential with that power.
- Austin Meadows – Elite matchup here for Meadows. He is the most consistent bat in that TB order and draws a weak matchup with Ariel Jurado. It’s over 90 degrees in Texas today and that has caused the Rays team total to move up. When I ran the numbers, I was surprised to see Meadows projected so highly, but after I dug deeper, it makes sense. He’s been well above average against RHP and Jurado is a below average pitcher. Throw in the ballpark upgrade and the weather and we could see a lot of runs from the Rays as Vegas now expects.
- Victor Robles – Somewhat cheap and the right splits from near the top of that Nationals order lately. He has good protection behind him and a guy that gets on base a lot in front of him. Robles is young, but has been a plus hitter all the way through the minors.
- Shohei Ohtani – He has not been as elite as we hoped this year, but the numbers are still solid. His lifetime numbers against RHP are better than solid and his price is discounted down a bit. He faces Adam Plutko, who has been good overall, but exhibits extreme splits. Plutko has been way below average against lefties, which means this is a plus matchup for Ohtani at low ownership.
- Matt Joyce – I love the lefties for the Braves today as evidenced by Freddie Freeman’s spot on my first base rankings. I also love the $2500 price on FD for Joyce. If you need to save, you get a guy batting in the middle of the order for a team projected for over five runs today. Eflin hasn’t sucked this year, but his lifetime numbers skew HR heavy and weaker to lefties. Joyce fits the profile of a guy who Eflin would struggle with and at the price is worth looking at.