We have a few early games of MLB action today, but the main slate to discuss is a nice 11-gamer. We have a game in Coors today with the Red Sox visiting and that is the one we have to start the discussion with.
The Red Sox team total is 7.5 against Peter Lambert and a suspect Rockies bullpen. That’s a full run higher than the next best option. The Rockies are also projected well today with the fourth highest team total at 5.96 runs.
The only other teams with better numbers are the Washington Nationals with a 6.5 projection against Asher Wojciechowski of the Orioles and the Twins with a 6 against Ross Detweiler of the White Sox.
The Angels are next in line at 5.8, followed by the Indians at 5.3. I would suspect the Braves get a high total too when that line eventually comes out as they have a nice matchup with a bad pitcher in Jacob Waguespack in a hitter friendly Toronto ballpark.
Everyone else has a projection of 5 or less today.
The Red Sox and Rockies played in Coors last night too and neither team was unowned, but they also weren’t huge chalk. DK’s dynamic pricing had all of these players as very expensive and that does take a toll on ownership.
You could have gotten away with pairing Plutko/Houser for $12,500 on DK yesterday and fit in some of these bats, but even double cheap pitching wasn’t enough to game stack the whole thing with all these guys priced in the high $4K-$5K range on both sides.
I definitely think having some cash game exposure here is warranted, but I’m not sure we have trustworthy enough low-end pitching to pull that off and win a tournament with it. This 13.5 game total is a huge number and I have no doubt runs will be scored, but in GPPs, I do think you want to limit or avoid exposure to the Coors game.
If you decide to fade Coors with me, then where do we go? The Nationals are the obvious choice, but that game has rain concerns and is in Washington, not Baltimore. Washington is not nearly the hitter’s paradise Baltimore is and expecting a huge number from the Nationals at higher than normal ownership in that ballpark doesn’t feel like the right play.
I do like the Braves in Toronto. That’s a good offense, facing a weak pitcher, and getting a massive ballpark bump. They should also go lower owned. Same can be said for the Minnesota Twins. The Twins tend to come in lower owned too and they also get a park upgrade and a weak pitcher.
On an 11 game slate, I don’t want to go too far off the board and take a flier on some random team not projected to do well. I think on a slate this big the ownership for secondary options will remain reasonably low, so I’m looking to stick with what makes the most sense on paper and might go slightly overlooked.
- Chalk Stacks: Red Sox, Rockies, Nationals
- Sneaky Stacks: Braves, Twins, Astros
- Top HR Call: Freddie Freeman
- 10% HR Call: Eddie Rosario
- 1% HR Call: Jonathon Villar
- Mitch Garver – Mitch Garver already has amazing numbers against LHPs, so right off the bat he popped on my charts today. When you dig deeper and realize how soft the matchup is against a bad lefty like Detweiler, it only further enhances my love for him. Throw in the fact he leads off on the road, guaranteeing him max ABs and that his team has the third highest projected total and you can easily see why he is the top choice at catcher. He’s not cheap, but this is a spot I would even consider playing him on FD.
- Robinson Chirinos – I really like Ryan Yarbrough, his second half has been pretty legit for the Rays. With that said, Chirinos has off the charts numbers for a catcher against left-handed pitching. Next to Garver, his numbers pop in the splits matchup more than any other player at the position. I prefer Garver, who has a much softer matchup, but with a lack of guys that have good lineup real estate, Chirinos stands out as second best.
- Francisco Cervelli – I debated Cervelli v. Wolters here today and ultimately like both guys if you are looking to save some dough. Neither has great lineup real estate, but both are dirt cheap and play for teams with high projected totals. Christian Vazquez and Mitch Garver are the other two on high projected total teams, but both are $2000+ more than Cervelli and Wolters. At the discount, these are the better cheap options if you want to save.
- Freddie Freeman – My HR call of the day. I absolutely love Freeman here. It’s a great park for power and he has a soft matchup against a young pitcher. The Braves team total is not released yet, but I would expect them to be one of the higher projected scores when it does come out. Great splits against a bad pitcher in a great hitter’s ballpark all make Freeman the top option.
- Mitch Moreland – 7.5 projected team total, the preferred split, and a game in Coors. I know he is a tad pricey, but he is back to hitting fifth behind the elite bats in this Red Sox’ offense. He has hit safely in 8 of the last 9 games and had either a run scored or an RBI in the same 8 of the last 9. He missed time this year, but has been a key part to this offense when healthy, and right now he’s healthy and producing.
- Matt Adams – Adams is the guy I like on FD with the sub-$3K price tag. The Nationals are projected for the second highest total and Woj is a guy who has struggled with lefties. Adams can still crush right-handed pitching, so when the split is in his favor at a low price, you have to be interested.
- Jose Altuve – I know he’s expensive and Yarbrough is very good, but Altuve is a beast against left-handed pitching. He always has been with a wOBA just shy of .400 against them over the last few years. Second base is a weak position and Altuve is not only the most consistent, but he can steal bases, hit homers, score and drive in runs. We usually reserve this term for NBA DFS, but Altuve is the rare baseball player that literally stuffs the stat sheet.
- Ozzie Albies – Although not his preferred split, the ballpark upgrade and weak pitcher make Albies one of the highest projected players at the position today. On DK, you are not getting as much of a discount, but at $3300 on FD, you are. That is where I prefer to play him today as part of a Braves stack or even in cash at this low price. $4100 on DK is not bad either though, so don’t be scared away.
- Cavan Biggio – Biggio plays in the same game as Albies and is even a few hundred cheaper on both sites. Folty has not been his sharpest self and his weakness has always been left-handed bats. The ballpark is solid and while Biggio has been inconsistent, he is cheap and has upside. I prefer him as a GPP play and would feel better paying a few hundred more for Albies if I can’t afford Altuve.
- Rafael Devers – His projection today is massive and towers over the field. The next closest guys are Anthony Rendon and Nolan Arenado and both project for 3+ points less on both sites. Devers hits in a sweet spot near the top of the Red Sox order. The Sox have the highest total, they get the park bump in Coors, and they face a weak righty in Lambert. Devers has crushed righties this year and is about as elite a bat as you can get into your lineup tonight at any position.
- Anthony Rendon – Some may prefer Nolan Arenado, but the ownership should be lower on Rendon, and his team actually has a better projection. Rendon has been putting up a near MVP caliber season and seems to always be a little under the radar. He has a .400 OBP and over a .600 Slugging for an OPS over 1. He has 29 homers, 94 runs scored, and 104 RBI. We still have a month left in the season, too. Throw in the soft matchup with Ascher Wojchiecowski and the Orioles pen and he could easily be the best producer at the position tonight.
- Yoan Moncada – Just $3200 on FD today and discounted to the elite third baseman on DK as well. Moncada has a high projection today too against Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi is HR prone and Moncada has some pop in his bat and a good HR park at home in Chicago. The Twins are projected for a big number today, but the White Sox have a 4.5 projection too and all the offense comes from the part of the order Moncada hits in.
I have a long list of shortstops all near the high end in good spots today. I have some exposure to a few of them and really can’t decide who the best is, so I’m just going to list them all as I have no problem with people playing any of them.
- Trevor Story – Coors matchup against a lefty. I like Eduardo Rodriguez, but Story has elite level numbers in Coors and elite numbers against left-handed pitching.
- Xander Bogaerts – Hits third in the order for the highest projected team and plays a tough-to-fill position. Bogaerts is just really solid, a great cash game play, and in this spot, even an upside guy. He’s definitely not cheap though.
- Francisco Lindor – Love the matchup for them against Jordan Zimmerman. Other teams project better, but you can’t go wrong with a stud like Lindor in a soft spot against the Tigers.
- Alex Bregman – Toughest matchup of the options here, but the FD SS eligible player still projects for a top 5 score at the position. Bregman is so good against lefties that his numbers are even better than George Springer and Jose Altuve over the last three years ,and those guys are considered some of the elite against lefties.
- Jorge Polanco – Probably the cheapest of the stud tier I am looking at today. It’s tough not to use one of these five studs because they won’t all fail and each has plenty of upside. Polanco crushes lefties, hits second in the order, and his team projects for a top 3 amount of runs tonight. Ross Detweiler is garbage and they get a park bump. So many reasons to be excited about him today.
- Mookie Betts – Lead off man facing a gas can and a weak bullpen at Coors Field for the team with the highest projected total, a full run above anyone else.
- JD Martinez – I prefer Betts to JD if only taking one of them, but both guys are elite and both project for more points than anyone else on the slate by a decent margin. Same reasoning here for loving him given the matchup.
- Juan Soto – The Nationals project for the second most runs behind the Red Sox and I feel like they are overlooked today. Soto has the best matchup and elite numbers, so he projects the best of these hitters, who are all in a good spot.
- Ronald Acuna – The Braves should end up with a hefty total when it is released today and Acuna has been good against any handedness of pitcher. The ballpark is an upgrade for righties by a wide margin and Waguespack hasn’t really shown that he is lights out to anyone, so the same handed matchup does not scare me.
- Nelson Cruz – The Twins should crush Detweiler today and Cruz should be right up there in the box score. He has been elite against left-handed pitching for a long time and Detweiler being one of the weakest pitchers on the board today is why the Twins have such a high team total over 6.
- Mike Trout – He’s Mike Trout for christ sake and the Texas Rangers are throwing some garbage long relievers to eat up innings. It’s tough to really break down matchups as he likely sees 3-4 different pitchers today, but none of them are MLB caliber and Trout is the best damn offensive weapon in the game of baseball. With so much love going towards the high end options in Coors, the thought of an underowned Trout against AAA pitching feels great for GPP action.
- Shohei Ohtani – A lot of the matchup info is the same here for Ohtani as mentioned above for Trout. Both guys are elite against righties, which is what Texas projects to throw at them most of the game. The difference between the two though is price. Trout is in the upper echelon of players in baseball whereas Ohtani is priced like more of a mid range option. That savings without giving up too much upside is useful today when building lineups.
- Eddie Rosario – I know people are going to say I’m crazy in a LvL matchup, but Detweiler sucks. In fact, that is also part of my thought process as Detweiler won’t last long which should leave 2-3 ABs for Rosario against RH relief pitchers later in the game too.
- Mark Canha – Canha has been hitting it well lately and is a big reason the Oakland offense has exploded. I admit I have not been on them as much as I should have, so I am trying to get some more exposure today. Canha is popping up highly on my screeners, especially for PP$ given his slightly cheaper price.
- Victor Reyes – One of the cheaper options I am considering today. Civale is a solid pitcher, but his splits have been severe. With Harold Castro questionable after suffering an injury yesterday, Victor Reyes is the only lefty the Detroit Tigers have near the top of the order. He is dirt cheap and likely low owned, especially because I expect Civale to take some ownership in what is otherwise a soft matchup.
- Joc Pederson – Sub $3K FD price for a guy who leads off, has power, and faces a likely AA pitcher being called up to make a spot start.
- Kole Calhoun – Another Angel lefty makes sense here. We mentioned with Trout and Ohtani that this is going to basically be a bullpen game including any live arm the Rangers have left. Calhoun has power and hits behind a bunch of on base machines, so he should get RBI chances today.