Only so many Friday MLB slates left this season so we need to make the most of it. Carpe Diem!
It’s a 13-game slate with the Nationals & Cubs playing earlier in the day and the Giants/Athletics getting the day off as they play a two-game series this weekend.
Today’s leading stacks will likely be the Astros and Phillies – and for good reason. The Astros are the league’s best collective offense, have the highest implied run total (over 6.0) and face a rookie left-hander (Jose Suarez) who has a 6.73 ERA in 11 starts (plus a relief appearance) and has allowed 16 home runs in just 53 innings.
Suarez was sent down to the minors, but is up now for this start with the Angels’ rotation truly reeling following Griffin Canning getting shut down for the season. They are expensive as always and deciding who to leave off our stacks can be tough, but today I believe Springer and Altuve are the two to use in cash and important for stacks.
The Phillies visit a ballpark that isn’t all that hitter-friendly in Miami, but they’re simply facing the worst collection of pitchers in baseball right now. For starters, 32-year-old former Yankees / Mariners / White Sox man Hector Noesi. Noesi was called up from Triple-A earlier this month and has been an outright disaster, allowing 16 runs, six homers and nine walks through his first three starts.
To top it off, no bullpen (not even Baltimore’s!) has been worse over the past two weeks (9.24 ERA and most homers allowed). Of course, baseball is a wild and unpredictable sport so watch Noesi come out and shut this team down (nope, this ain’t a cop-out, it’s a realistic possibility, #becausebaseball).
Other stacks people will look towards today:
The Cardinals against Peter Lambert, who I think will be a good pitcher someday. Don’t particularly think he’ll be that awful away from Coors and the weather isn’t very friendly in St. Louis tonight.
The Twins against Matthew Boyd is certainly in play though. Boyd is actually tied with our friend Jake Junis for fourth-most homers allowed since the beginning of last season. Something that may be glossed over because Boyd had such a strong first half of the season and racks up whiffs like crazy this year.
All Rays are in play because of the matchup in hitter-friendly Baltimore and some of the worst collection of pitchers we’ve seen in the better part of a decade.
Same with Brewers who are back at home against Merrill Kelly, who is significantly worse away from his home stadium this season (17.1 DKP at home; 9.2 DKP on road).
Also, the Indians against the aforementioned Junis and company.
Sneaky stacks are tough today but there are always ones that come to the forefront. Tune in to the MLB DFS Livestream at 5pm ET today as my gut usually formulates sneaky stacks properly after seeing lineups and the landscape of the entire slate.
- ASTROS (v LAA – Jose Suarez (L))
- PHILLIES (v MIA – Hector Noesi)
- BREWERS (v ARI – Merrill Kelly)
- INDIANS (v KCR – Jake Junis)
- Tune in to the Livestream at 5pm with Ted and I
Chalk Home Run
- George Springer
Sneaky Home Run
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
FD: George Springer (OF) + Jose Altuve (2B) + Vlad Guerrero Jr. (3B) + Francisco Lindor (SS)
DK: George Springer (OF) + Jose Altuve (2B) + Vlad Guerrero Jr. (3B) + Rhys Hoskins (1B)
- JT Realmuto (RH/PHI) – Mentioned in intro why we need to target PHI bats today
- Travis d’Arnaud (RH/TBR) – Usable when against a lefty and the ballpark/bullpen’s a boon
- Yasmani Grandal (SW/MLW) – So well-disciplined at the plate and solid power; and they’re home
- Welington Castillo (RH/CHW) – Lynn is top-10 this year, but let’s throw him in here since he’s 9-for-15 with 3 HR against him
- Robinson Chirinos (RH/HOU) – Should be back in lineup after horrendous and selfish gaffe two nights ago going for the cycle and losing team the game
- Carlos Santana (SW/CLE) – Stud switch-hitter having an all-timer of a season (6-for-13 v Junis)
- Rhys Hoskins (RH/PHI) – Stack ya Phillies, I repeat, stack ya Phillies!; leading off lately
- Josh Bell (SW/PIT) – Respect DeSclafani but not when a power righty is at the plate
- Yuli Gurriel (RH/HOU) – Often forgotten about part of the HOU stack; ideal situation tonight
- Freddie Freeman (LH/ATL) – Don’t care who’s on the mound when Freeman is crushing bombs daily (psst, it’s deGrom tonight)
- Jose Altuve (RH/HOU) – Priced up because he’s earned it and the matchup is superb
- Keston Hiura (RH/MLW) – 23-year-old rookie stud offers power/speed and is at home in nice matchup; better against RHP this year but too early to say he’s a reverse-splits guy (he’s a ‘hit everything and everyone’ guy!)
- Jason Kipnis (LH/CLE) – In play when we have flyball RHP’s on the mound
- Adam Frazier (LH/PIT) – Smashed a leadoff homer the other day and we like LHH v DeSclafani
- Ketel Marte (SW/ARI) – Will go overlooked on such a big slate, but Ketel in MLW sounds like a nice 5% move today
- Alex Bregman (RH/HOU) – Smashed his 31st last night; pricey but all HOU guys worth it
- Mike Moustakas (LH/MLW) – Bat has woken up of late and we’re stackin’ against Road Kelly
- Justin Turner (RH/LAD) – That whole Paxton first inning thing and Turner smashes lefties
- Jose Ramirez (SW/CLE) – If you’re on the Indians today, there’s no way you’re skipping him
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (RH/TOR) – Feel like starting to warm up; big homer yesterday
- Jake Lamb (LH/ARI) –7-for-12 against Jordan Lyles and a nice hitting environment today
- PUNT– Tyler France (RH/SDP) – Not the best success in the majors and we really don’t want to punt this position, but I’ve listed him because he’s 2.7k on DK / 2.2k on FD
- Francisco Lindor (SW/CLE) – 15-for-29 with 3 HR/10 RBI and .483 ISO v Junis (owns him)
- Bo Bichette (RH/TOR) – Should own the rookie lefty (Sheffield) making his 2nd career start
- Jorge Polanco (SW/MIN) – Twins have a nice IRL and could go overlooked since Boyd respected
- Elvis Andrus (RH/TEX) – Nice rare HR for us yesterday and we’re just picking on the kid Cease
- PUNT–Luis Urias (RH/SDP) – Small MLB sample but has been hitting lefties much better since called up
- Christian Yelich (LH/MLW) – Back at home where he’s crushed 30 of his 41 homers
- George Springer (RH/HOU) – Prefer him vs. lefties and feels like a value based on price/matchup
- Bryce Harper (LH/PHI) – Dig Philly stack against a retread who needs to be sent down (Noesi)
- Nelson Cruz (RH/MIN) – Best HR/PA rate in baseball (33 HR, missed 39 games); faces lefty
- AJ Pollock (RH/LAD) – Paxton a stud but not in the 1st inning and Pollock should lead off
- Michael Conforto (LH/NYM) – Seeing ball well lately and gets the RHP Folty
- Yasiel Puig (RH/CLE) – About time to heat up with CLE; Junis allows 4th most HR since last SZN
- Shin Soo Choo (LH/TEX) – Good matchup and 5 PA against a struggling rookie (Cease)
- FANDUEL: Pham/Meadows (RH,LH/TBR) – In Camden facing a lefty and league’s worst bullpen
- Marwin Gonzalez (SW/MIN) – He’s 7-for-12 in his career against Matt Boyd
- Greg Allen (SW/CLE) – May not be in lineup vs. Junis though since he’s 0-for-8 lifetime
- Trent Grisham (LH/MLW) – Playing less these days but could be in lineup today and so cheap
- Tim Lopes (RH/SEA) – Surprisingly no relation to who I was hoping was his speedster long-retired dad (Davey Lopes) but Lopes can RUN. Three bags and 10 RBI through his first 12 MLB games. Cheap and in the night cap against the Blue Jays
- Teoscar Hernandez (RH/TOR) – Give me the righty with power for the night cap vs rookie SP