Not a particularly exciting slate, but that is sometimes the case on a transition Thursday. Just nine games on the docket and only one with a combined Vegas run total greater than 10 runs – that’s the Rangers/White Sox at 11.0.
The largest implied run total is a usual suspect – the Astros at home against the Tigers where they are whopping -500 favorites (IRL of 6.35). Their bats will be popular on a night where there isn’t a lot of clear chalk.
Between HOU, TEX/CHW, ATL, LAD and TBR is where most of the ownership will be.
The Braves will carry their fair share as well since they have an IRL of 5.9 and are at home against a second-year SP (Sandy Alcantara) who typically struggles on the road.
You’ll see some Nationals’ right-handed bats too since we typically target a few of them when there is a lefty on the mound opposing them.
The Dodgers are next facing rookie Jacob Waguespack and have a total of 5.7.
The Rays on the road in a great hitters’ park (Camden) against the Orioles will carry some ownership as well.
Getting sneaky, we’d have to look at the NYY-OAK game as well as COL-STL.
- ASTROS (v Jordan Zimmermann)
- BRAVES (v Sandy Alcantara)
- DODGERS (vJacob Waguespack)
- RANGERS/WHITE SOX (Juradov Detwiler(L))
- RAYS (v Asher Wojchiechowski)
- ROCKIES (v Miles Mikolas)
- NATIONALS RHH (v Steven Brault (L))
- YANKEES LHH (v Tanner Roark)
- DODGERS, BRAVES, RANGERS/WHITE SOX, NATIONALS RHH
Chalk Home Run
- Ronald Acuña, Max Muncy
Sneaky Home Run
- Ji-Man Choi, Tim Anderson
- Max Muncy (2B/LAD) + Austin Meadows (OF/TBR) + Jose Abreu (1B/CHW) or Ji-Man Choi (LH/TBR) + Ronald Acuña (OF/ATL)
- Kurt Suzuki (RH/WAS) – Super scarce position today but Suzuki the best for cash (.436 wOBA)
- Gary Sanchez (RH/NYY) – Hate Oaktown’s park for hitters but Sanchez has been smacking lately
- Dom Nunez (LH/COL) – Quite possible the rookie gets the start; He’s 3-for-9 with a homer so far
- James McCann (RH/CHW) – Usually prefer against LHP but again it’s dry at the position; high total
- Travis d’Arnaud (RH/TBR) – Woj predictably back down to earth and has allowed 7 HR/14 ER last 4
- Freddie Freeman (LH/ATL) – Typically the first choice at 1B on most slates; great for cash and tourneys
- Jose Abreu (RH/CHW) – The aging vet’s having a magical season and has 4 HR, 13 RBI (.340) over last 10
- Paul Goldschmidt (RH/STL) – 10-for-26 (4 HR, .538 ISO) against Marquez though much of that in Coors
- Matt Olson (LH/OAK) – Lefty masher against a flyball pitcher (Tanaka)
- Danny Santana (SW/TEX) – Having a resurgent season and can provide power and speed
- Ji-Man Choi (LH/TBR) – A very disappointing season but in play if leading off for the price
- Pete Alonso (RH/NYM) – You think I’d actually leave this stud off?
- Brian Dozier (RH/WAS) – On paternity leave but might leave baby behind today facing a lefty (.271 ISO)
- Jose Altuve (RH/HOU) – Don’t need much to push us to play Altuve against Astros vs. Zimm today
- Max Muncy (LH/LAD) – Went 4 straight with a homer and up to 32 on the season
- Nick Solak (RH/TEX) – Former Yankees’ prospect hit 27 HR in minors and hit his first in 2ndcareer game
- Jonathan Villar (SW/BAL) – He is scorching the earth with his bat and legs right now
- Anthony Rendon (RH/WAS) – Death, taxes and Rendon in your DFS lineup against a lefty
- Alex Bregman (RH/HOU) – Part of the chalk station against Zimm and a bad DET bullpen
- Josh Donaldson (RH/ATL) – Any Braves’ stack has to include this guy and his prodigious power
- Nolan Arenado (RH/COL) – Not the same hitter on the road but has 5 HR in his last six
- Matt Carpenter (LH/STL) – Could be tempting because of low price tag but man has he been awful
- Elvis Andrus (RH/TEX) – Not all that productive lately but I’m all about the TEX RHH’s today vs Detwiler
- Didi Gregorius (LH/NYY) – No pitcher in baseball worse against left-handed hitters than Tanner Roark
- Tim Anderson (RH/CHW) – One of the few usable White Sox because of his high ceiling; Jurado is awful
- Corey Seager (LH/LAD) – Has flashed a bit more power lately and is always a multi-hit threat
- Trea Turner (RH/WAS) – Has been producing from the leadoff spot and has 12 RBI in his last 10
- Cody Bellinger (LH/LAD) – Over 40 HR and 100 RBI and we still have 6 weeks to go; watch out, rookie!
- Ronald Acuña (RH/ATL) – He hit yet another bomb yesterday; arguably 2019’s fantasy MVP
- Hunter Pence (RH/TEX) – Could be contrarian today because who wants to pay 5.5k for Pence
- Brantley/Alvarez/Springer (HOU) – Hard to go wrong with this trio and for whatever reason gut likes Brantley most of the three – but I’d play them all together on a stack
- Austin Meadows (LH/TBR) – My favorite play on the slate, in Baltimore against bad RHP and bullpen
- Delino DeShields (RH/TEX) – Should lead off and threat for couple hits and a steal
- Aaron Judge (RH/NYY) – Has finally been warming up last few games; start of hot streak?
- Mike Tauchman (LH/NYY) – Has truly cooled off but it’s still a lefty power bat vs. Roark
Very weak options today so let’s see what type of value pops up when lineups come out
- Harrison Bader (RH/STL) – Back up in the big leagues and delivered in first game back; speed/power upside
- Jon Jay (LH/CHW) – Man, just very little DFS value but that’s why he’s 3.2k on DK; do like White Sox today against a reeling Jurado and one of baseball’s most volatile bullpens
- Scott Heineman (RH/TEX) – Listed only because he is cheap and we like this game with a high total
- Matt Joyce/Rafael Ortega (LH/ATL) – Very possible one of these lefty bats will be in lineup and both have some pop in their respective bats