Very solid 11 game slate on tap for tonight. A lot of the top hitting teams in baseball are in excellent splits matchups, which has led to some high totals even without a game in Coors on the main slate.
The Red Sox draw a weak lefty, The Astros do too, and so do the Braves. All three teams have bats that mash southpaws. The Cubs have a high team total and a great spot too, so the 5.5 projection on them seems juicy.
We have other teams with decent matchups too like the Phillies, Brewers, and both sides of the KC/Baltimore game against weak pitchers.
We have a lot of places to go and this is a big slate, so I’m not overly concerned with avoiding chalk as I think we will see it spread around a bit.
- Chalk Stacks: Astros, Red Sox (Both team totals tower over the field)
- Sneaky Stacks: Braves, Phillies, Royals, Cubs
- Top HR Call: Pete Alonso
- Low Owned HR Call: Renato Nunez
Yasmani Grandal – second favorite catcher and second best numbers on the slate really for the matchup. Wainwright has looked good lately, but the numbers show he has been dreadful against LHBs this year. Grandal is one of the better hitting catchers in the league and owns a 119 wRC+ with a .350 wOBA and a .240 ISO scores since 2016.
Robinson Chirinos – Chirinos really jumps off the page today against a weak lefty, as do his teammates, which is reflected in the huge Astros total. Chirinos has a 136 wRC+ against LHP, which is about as elite as you will find at the catcher position He’s also not the most expensive option. He hits lower in the order, but the Astros should romp today and he should have some good ABs against a southpaw.
Meibrys Viloria – If you need to save, the Royals catcher is a good place to go. He is a lefty and the numbers are better against righties, so he gets his preferred split. He’s also cheap and hits 6th in the order so he has decent lineup real estate.
Pete Alonso – HR call of the day on the new NL rookie HR record holder. Plutko has very severe splits that are super weak to lefties and he also gives up a ton of homers to them. His HR/9 this year is over 2.6 per 9. Alonso has a 150 wRC+ a .396 wOBA and a .313 ISO score. All of those are elite.
Anthony Rizzo – Dereck Rodriguez has been Jekyll and Hyde with either 20+ DK points or -7 alternating in his last four starts. That said, he struggles more outside of SF and with left-handed bats. Rizzo is the most elite bat on the Cubs and owns a 144 wRC+ since 2016 with a .392 wOBA and a big .242 ISO score.
Rhys Hoskins – I know it’s RvR, but Rick Porcello has neutral splits and they are basically bad to both sides of the plate. Rhys has always hit well in same handed spots too with a .372 wOBA, big .272 ISO score and a 132 wRC+.
Ryan O’Hearn – At only $3K on DK this is a solid value play if you need one tonight. He has pop, the Royals get a weak starter and even weaker bullpen, and the park shift to Camden Yards from Kauffman Stadium is one of the bigger positive moves in baseball.
Sam Travis – He’s a little too pricey to be value on DK, but anytime you can get him against a lefty, you have to respect his numbers. On FanDuel, the discount is down to $3K and that makes him a solid upside play to fit into lineups today.
Jose Altuve – One of the most elite bats in the entire league against left-handed pitching over the last 5 years and now he is healthy and back to his old ways. Since 2016 he owns a 153 wRC+ with just shy of a .400 wOBA and an ISO score over .200. Not many players have those kind of numbers and almost none of them play second base.
Ozzie Albies – A much tougher matchup than Altuve, but Albies is one of the few other second basemen with numbers like the ones Altuve sports. Caleb Smith is not a bad lefty, but when a guy has a 155 wRC+, a .411 wOBA, and a .239 ISO score since 2016 and plays second base you have to respect that kind of upside.
Hanser Alberto – The other options above are pricey, so I wanted to offer a cheap one if you need to save. Hanser Alberto lacks power, but hits well against lefties anyway. Well enough to earn a 127 wRC+ score on the back of a .367 wOBA against them. Again, he lacks power, but can make value with a few hits, walks, and runs scored.
Alex Bregman – Bregman crushes left-handed pitching. On a team with a bunch of guys that crush lefties, he has the most elite level numbers with a huge 160 wRC+ score. .402 wOBA is insane and he has a .260 ISO score too. Just so many high end numbers against a gas can pitcher for the team with the second highest projected total.
Hunter Dozier – Again here picking on the weak Baltimore Orioles staff in that hitter’s paradise of Camden Yards. No one on the Royals really has elite level numbers, but the shift to Camden from Kauffman should help them all. Dozier is one of the few legit power sources on the team, and given the matchup and elevated team total, I’m in on him today.
Renato Nunez – My low-owned HR call for the day is a boom or bust type GPP play. Nunez has elite power, but he’s not great at making contact. Still, he draws a weak lefty in Mike Montgomery in a HR friendly Camden Yards. He is cheap and with one swing could easily surpass cash game and GPP value and differentiate your lineups from those spending up on the multiple solid options who aren’t cheap.
Xander Bogaerts – Bogaerts has elite numbers against left-handed pitching, hits in the heart of one of the best orders in baseball, and his team is projected for the most runs today. He’s not cheap, but this is a weak position and he does project as the best bet on FD. On DK, you have a bunch of guys with multi-position eligibility already on this list at other positions you can use, so keep that in mind if Bogaerts is not your particular cup of tea.
Jean Segura – Segura should be lower owned today and he’s heating up lately. Either way, Rick Porcello just isn’t that good anymore and anyone on the Phillies is worth a look. The discount on him is also a reason I have interest.
Elvis Andrus – Elvis Andrus is not elite against lefties, but he is arguably the best bat on his team against them. Throw in the prime lineup real estate as he has been in the 3 hole, and you have a guy that is cheap and fits very well today. I don’t love the cheaper options below him as anything other than a GPP punt, so play Andrus or up in cash and try to do so in GPPs as well if you can.
I broke outfield up into high, medium, and low priced options to help with lineup building. Unfortunately, some guys on one site or the other don’t really fit into one box. Some are pricier on DK or on FD, but this is a good rough guide with the names on my list for you guys to use.
JD Martinez – JD v. LHP should be enough said, but in case you need a refresher: 185 wRC+, .451 wOBA, and .341 ISO scores since 2016. Those are some of the most elite numbers for any hitter against any handedness of pitcher over the time frame.
George Springer – Springer is another elite bat tonight and he crushes lefties. 153 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .239 ISO and he leads off for the team with the second highest team total on the day.
Christian Yelich – A little under the radar tonight for one of the best bats in baseball. Adam Wainwright’s weakness is LHBs and Yellich crushes righties for a 155 wRC+ score with over a .400 wOBA and a .250 ISO.
Juan Soto – Soto is also under the radar a bit and just so elite against RHP. He too owns over a 150 wRC+ and it’s tough to ignore guys that good. Musgrove has allowed much better numbers to lefties as they are well above league average against him this year. Not the best ballpark, but Soto is elite.
Mookie Betts – Betts is not the lefty masher JD Martinez is, but a 140 wRC+ score is nothing to sneeze at, either. Elite lineup, top team total, and soft matchup against a guy giving up about 5 runs a game over 5 innings to much weaker teams in his recent start is a recipe for success for Mookie tonight.
Ronald Acuna – Not a soft matchup, but he crushes lefties. Caleb Smith is solid, but when you have a 148 wRC+, a .400 wOBA, and a .286 ISO against southpaws, you still merit mention even if the pitcher is decent.
Cody Bellinger – A lot of what we just said for Acuna applies here too. 149 wRC+, .392 wOBA, .300+ ISO scores are elite and tough to ignore even if we have a half dozen other studs today that also project well. Some project even better, but that should help keep his ownership down and double dongs are never out of the question with him.
Mike Trout – It’s crazy that Trout is only one of the guys today despite his 164 wRC+ v. Lefties, but Mike Minor doesn’t suck. Trout still projects really well, but other guys project better. Given how good he is though, fading him seems dumb. My biggest fear is Minor just doesn’t throw him anything to hit and he finishes with a high floor and low ceiling on a bunch of walks. For the price and with so many other good options, that would kill your lineups today.
Bryce Harper – Rick Porcello sucks and Harper has been heating up, especially with his power numbers. Porcello is giving up more homers this year too, so this could be a smash spot for Harper. His 135 wRC+ is the best on the team and they project for 5+ runs, even if that is nearly 1.5 below their opponent.
Michael Conforto – We mentioned Pete Alonso as the HR call and one of my best bets today due to the matchup against a guy who struggles with lefties. Conforto is a lefty and also has good numbers against RHP. His 136 wRC+ score is borderline great and the .371 wOBA and .245 ISO that back him up aren;t too shabby either.
Mike Yastrzemski – This is purely a hit or miss kind of play for GPPs, but we do know Yu Darvish is prone to giving up homers. Yas has the second best numbers of rookies since the all-star break and with Tatis down, he’s currently the guy with the best overall numbers since that point. He has pop and could go yard for cheap.
Joc Pederson – His sub $3K price on FD is a tad too low for the upside he has. I’m not a huge fan of the young kid Waguespack pitching for the Blue Jays. So far he hasn’t sucked against lefties, but the sample size is small, and it was his weaker split in the minors.
Adam Duvall – The whole Braves team crushes lefties and Duvall always has before he joined them. Caleb Smith doesn’t suck, but DuVall has power and gives you cheaper exposure against him if you want it.
Dexter Fowler – He’s cheap and the young Adrian Houser struggles with lefties. Fowler is currently the best lefty on the team with Matt Carpenter struggling. He should be leading off. Do I love him? No, but he’s not in a bad spot and he is underpriced.
Stephen Piscotty – I like this play a lot for upside. Piscotty has always been a lefty masher and JA Happ absolutely sucks right now. Piscotty is very price friendly and has a 136 wRC+ score with a .372 wOBA and a .221 ISO.
Alex Dickerson – Dickerson is a new addition to the Giants and frankly one that has upside here. GPP only though as Darvish doesn’t give up many hits, but when he does, they tend to be homers. Dickerson hits righties well and has some sneaky power. Outside of SF, I think I respect that a lot more.