A plethora of strong pitchers on today’s 15-game slate coupled with some semi-abhorrent weather means this likely won’t be your typical high-scoring day. Well, with 15 games of course anything is possible. And by semi-abhorrent, that refers to having to deal with possible rain delays, not because we don’t like rain personally.
Between Cole, Sale, Greinke, Boyd, Flaherty, Clevinger, Lynn, Bumgarner, Lynn, Wheeler, we are loaded. And that doesn’t even touch on the cheaper pitching that could be viable (McKay, Kikuchi, Anderson etc.).
The trouble spots weather wise are in Washington, Philly, New York, Cleveland, Detroit, Atlanta, Chicago and Kansas City. Among all of these, BOS/CLE and SEA/DET are mostly just some sprinkles and feel the least likely to be affected. NYM/ATL and CHC/PHI should be the ones to watch closest. Oh, and of course CIN/WAS as we’ve seen the Nationals postpone games for mere raindrops before.
Nothing is ever too chalky on such a big slate, but we’ll see the highest ownership of hitters from Houston, the Yankees and the game in Coors (Dbacks and Rockies). Everything else should fall in below 13 percent outside of individual one-offs.
Coors may not pop off like it did yesterday simply because the two gents toeing the rubber (Gallen, Gray) are respectable arms. Hate to ever fade Yankees against the Orioles, but John Means is legitimately the only good arm they have, though Means hasn’t been great since the All-Star break, allowing 15 ER and 6 HR in those four starts, including lasting just 3.2 IP (4 ER, 1 HR) to the Yankees.
The Yankees have gone from a team that struggles against LHP to third in both team ISO and wOBA. Plus, there’s that fully-abhorrent bullpen with names of guys you and I have never heard of. So, let’s continue to play our Yankees, especially Gleyber Torres.
Other stacks that will see some representation in DFS tourneys include the Cardinals (5.8 IRL) against Glenn Sparkman (18 ER last 3 starts), Rangers (5.2 IRL) against lefty Thomas Pannone (7 ER last start), and to a lesser degree, Brewers at home against Martin Perez, Dodgers facing Jordan Yamamoto in Miami, some red-hot Mets and Cubs against Jason Vargas in a good-hitting environment in Citizens Bank Park.
Many edges for us to find tonight as that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
NOTE: Dustin May moved up to pitch today, Kershaw tomorrow; gives us a mid-range SP option; no interest in Marlins’ bats.
- YANKEES v BAL (John Means, L)
- ASTROS @ CHW (Ivan Nova)
- ROCKIES v ARI (Zac Gallen)
- TIGERS v SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) – on DK as 2ndstack because they’re affordable
- RANGERS @ TOR (Thomas Pannone, L)
- CARDINALS @ KCR (Glenn Sparkman)
- BREWERS v MIN (Martin Perez, L)
- DODGERS @ MIA (Jordan Yamamoto)
- CUBS @ PHI (Jason Vargas, L)
- METS @ ATL (Max Fried, L)
- Yankees, Astros, Mets, Brewers, Cubs
Chalk Home Run
- Gleyber Torres, NYY
Sneaky Home Run
- Nick Castellanos, CHC
DK: Gleyber Torres (2B/NYY) + Gio Urshela (3B/NYY) + Pete Alonso (1B/NYM) + Nick Castellanos (RH/CHC)
FD: Gleyber Torres (2B/NYY) + Gio Urshela (3B/NYY) + Josh Rojas (UT/ARI) + Nick Castellanos (RH/CHC)
- Gary Sanchez (RH/NYY) – His .269 ISO vs. LHP is best on team among guys with 40+ PA
- Wilson Ramos (RH/NYM) – Red-hot with 14 RBI and .415 AVG over his last 10
- Yasmani Grandal (SW/MLW) – Stuck on 19 HR for a while and he’s due; Perez: 10 HR allowed last four
- Manny Pina (RH/MLW) – Team-leading .308 ISO and .425 wOBA against lefties
- Alex Avila (LH/ARI) – Hard to pass on LvR power in Coors
- FADE–Travis d’Arnaud (RH/TBR) – Semi-chalk I may fade since Eric Lauer is stellar at home (2.89 ERA) compared to on road (6.21) and has allowed five total homers there
- Freddie Freeman (LH/ATL) – Wheeler’s great but Freeman 12-for-24 with 2 HR, 12 BB career
- Pete Alonso (RH/NYM) – Second-best ISO in NL vs. lefties (.407) behind only Renfroe
- Daniel Murphy (LH/COL) – 2-for-23 last six games, needs a Coors boost
- Christian Walker (RH/ARI) – Has only homered twice since All-Star break; stuck on 20 HR
- CONTRARIAN– Justin Smoak (LH/TOR) – Power vs. Power; homered yesterday and I’m almost certain no one will play him against Cy Lynn
- Others: Paul Goldschmidt, Yuli Gurriel
- Gleyber Torres (RH/NYY) – 13 HR in 16 games vs. BAL and not expensive; why stop now?
- Jose Altuve (RH/HOU) – Lower-owned today because most will take discount on Glebyer
- Max Muncy (LH/LAD) – Not ideal hitting environment but Yamamoto nice one to pick on
- Keston Hiura (RH/MLW) – 3 HR in his last 4 and nice matchup with a struggling Perez
- Ketel Marte (RH/ARI) – Hard not to at least consider Ketel in Coors; OF eligible on DK
- Brian Dozier (RH/WAS) – Super cheap and always in play against left-handed pitching
- Josh Rojas FD ONLY (LH/ARI) – Hot prospect recently called up; made debut yesterday; has speed and power; 2B on FD only so that means you’d have to play him at UT
- Anthony Rendon (RH/WAS) – Crushes LHP (.419 wOBA) and is 12-for-21 against Alex Wood
- Coors: Eduardo Escobar (SW/ARI), Jake Lamb (LH/ARI), Nolan Arenado (RH/COL) – Esco best
- J.D. Davis (RH/NYM) – It’s a loaded position so he’ll go overlooked; hitting .371 in August
- Alex Bregman (RH/HOU) – Nova’s been solid recently but these Astros thrash everyone
- Kris Bryant (RH/CHC) – Play vs. lefties (.342 AVG, .365 ISO, .469 wOBA)
- Gio Urshela (RH/NYY) – Oh man, almost forgot! Averaging 18 (!) DKP over his last 10; also his teammate DJ LeMahieu will be lower owned (2B/3B on DK)
- Contrarian: Rafael Devers (LH/BOS), Jose Ramirez (SW/CLE)
- Trevor Story (RH/COL) – Smashed a big bomb yesterday; good rookie SP but he’s at home
- Javier Baez (RH/CHC) – Hitting .330 with a .352 ISO against left-handed pitching
- Niko Goodrum (SW/DET) – You know Kikchi won’t be perfect; Goodrum very strong splits vs lefties (.393 wOBA v LHP, .297 v RHP) though less power vs. lefties
- Amed Rosario (RH/NYM) – Less speed but more power vs. LHP (.265 ISO v LHP; .129 v RHP)
- Francisco Lindor (SW/CLE) – Contrarian vs. Sale but he’s 10-for-24 (.446 wOBA) against him
- Other Contrarians: Fernando Tatis Jr. (RH/SDP), Elvis Andrus (RH/TEX)
- Yordan Alvarez (LH/HOU) + George Springer (RH/HOU) – Easy to go Yordan if can only have one
- Charlie Blackmon (LH/COL) – Gets a RHP at Coors; hitting .412 at home, wowza
- Mike Trout (RH/LAA) – T. Williams has been getting blown up lately; check his game logs
- Cody Bellinger (LH/LAD) – Lower-owned today with matchup in pitchers’ park
- Marcell Ozuna (RH/STL) – The one bat for the Cardinals if you’re only using a one-off
- Aristides Aquino (RH/CIN) – Only natural that he will cool off and regress but hard to fade The Punisher right now; no other major-league hitter has started off his career with 8 HR in first 12 G
- Nick Castellanos (RH/CHC) – Loving the Cubs uniform (.372; 4 HR last 10) and gets a lefty
- Ryan Braun (RH/MLW) – Let’s pick on Perez with righties today
- Aaron Judge (RH/NYY) – Cold; can’t pull the ball; but for depressed price worth considering
- Jesse Winker (LH/CIN) – Good matchup with some power against a righty
- Dexter Fowler (SW/STL) – Middling option but faces an awful righty
- Raimel Tapia or Ian Desmond (LH’s/COL) – Cheap for Coors guys so need to be on radar
- Brandon Drury (RH/TOR) – Contrarian since vs. Lynn, but .343 with 3 HR last 10 and he’s streaky
- Chad Pinder/Mark Canha (RH’s/OAK) – Not ideal hitting environment but A’s one of best in league against lefties; Pinder somewhat hot lately
- Travis Demeritte (RH/DET) – Hit safely in six straight and good matchup vs. homer prone Kikuchi
- SUPER PUNTS– Chris Owings (RH/BOS), Juan Lagares (RH/NYM) – Honestly no reason to play either unless you don’t mind the goose egg and really need the salary cap