Travel day for some, rest day for others – it’s your typical midseason Thursday with games taking place throughout the day. For purposes of our discussion, we’ll cover the six games on the main slate that starts at 7:10pm ET.
Some not-so-good pitchers on the mound but a couple of interesting matchups featured: the Yankees (Masahiro Tanaka) and Red Sox (Rick Porcello) have a monster 11.0 implied run total and there’s a fun pitching duel with two young studs (MIN – Jose Berrios vs. CHW – Lucas Giolito).
For the purposes of tournament stacks, expect a mix of A’s facing Ariel Jurado, Mariners against Drew VerHagen, Indians taking on Mike Montgomery and the KC bullpen. And for game-stack purposes, Angels and Orioles.
In fact, Angels should easily be the highest-percentage tourney stack and most popular guys used in cash because of the matchup. There’s warm weather and a collection of shoddy pitchers for them to tee off against – some mix of Tom Eshelman, Jimmy Yacabonis and an utterly atrocious bullpen.
Just don’t expect the Eshelman/Yacabonis combo to be as bad as they were against the Red Sox last game (12 runs allowed, combined, over four innings). This is not simply a ‘play Angels and call it a day’ slate as there are several formations we can build today and different paths that could lead us to glory.
Chalky Stacks: LAA, NYY, OAK, CLE
Sneaky Stacks: SEA, BOS, BAL
Chalk Home Run: Trout
Sneaky Home Run: Vogelbach
Core 4: Trout (OF/LAA) + Vogelbach (1B/SEA) + Upton (OF/LAA) + Arteaga(SS/KCR)
- Tom Murphy (RH/SEA) – Day off for Narvaez who has played in six straight; picking on VerHagen and some lefties in the bullpen; $3600 on DK and won’t be highly owned because better vs LHP.
- Dustin Garneau (LH/LAA) – Cheap lefty and we’re picking on the Orioles’ righties.
- James McCann (RH/CHW) – 3 HR, 9 RBI in 15 PA against Berrios. Has his # for some reason.
- Pedro Severino (RH/BAL) – A lefty crusher this season (.268 ISO, .373 wOBA).
- Daniel Vogelbach (LH/SEA) – Call him VogelDong for a reason; incredibly raw power. Double-dong yesterday gives him 25 on the season. VerHagen is German for ‘dong-allower’.
- Matt Olson (LH/OAK) – .261 ISO and 53% Hard-Hit rate against righties; Jurado is below-avg.
- Edwin Encarnacion (RH/NYY) – Parrot hit his 30thfacing Porcello who is averaging over 5 ER in his last five starts.
- Miguel Cabrera (RH/DET) – Nearly .390 wOBA and a 48% HH against lefties; and cheap.
- Gleyber Torres (RH/NYY) – 18 and 17 DKP over his last two, hitting near .300 all year; consistent.
- Jonathan Villar (SW/BAL) – Leadoff against bad lefty rookie (Suarez) and fairly priced.
- Whit Merrifield (RH/KCR) – Stud-muffin and a top-25 fantasy player this season. 100 more ISO points (.261 to .160) against lefties.
- Rafael Devers (LH/BOS) – Top-5 fantasy producer this season; he’s 5-for-11 vs. Tanaka.
- Humberto Arteaga (RH/KCR) – Not a good hitter but a DK punt to help build lineups today.
- DJ LeMahieu (RH/NYY) – Leading off in game with 11 implied run total; hits machine.
- Jose Ramirez (SW/CLE) – Hitting .317 with 5 HR in July; among MLB stolen base leaders.
- Kyle Seager (LH/SEA) – A cheap punt with some power against VerHagen and company.
- Francisco Lindor (SW/CLE) – 4-for-7 with 1 SB and a .625 wOBA against Montgomery.
- Elvis Andrus (RH/TEX) – 10-for-30 with 2 bags and seven runs scored against old-man Anderson.
- Didi Gregorius (LH/NYY) – Good grief, nearly 100 combined FDP over his last two games!
- J.P. Crawford (LH/SEA) – Just a man to be on base when Vogeldong hits all those dongs.
- Angels in the OF – Mike Trout (RH), Justin Upton (RH), Shohei Ohtani (LH) – Three homers in his last four for Mr. Trout and he’s my favorite play of the day, straight up.
- Aaron Judge (RH/NYY) – Fine cash play but I’m using him in my Yankees’ stack against Porcello.
- Mookie Betts/ J.D. Martinez (RH’s/BOS) – Neither guy really hitting for power, which is shocking. But both are fantastic cash plays due to their upper echelon contact skills and good histories against Tanaka.
- Jordan Luplow/ Oscar Mercado (RH’s/CLE) – Mercado is on the pricey side, but to be used in your CLE stacks. Luplow is specifically used against lefties, though note that Montgomery won’t be long for this game unless he’s incredibly efficient (and even then, four innings at most).
- Max Kepler (LH/MIN) – He’s 5-for-10 against Giolito though some of that came against ‘Bad Lucas’ last season so don’t look too much into this. It’s simply a play where you’re hoping to get lucky with a low-percentage homer. It could come against the bullpen too though.
- Trey Mancini (RH/BAL) – Love some 2019 Boom Boom Mancini when there’s a homer-prone lefty on the mound.
- Jorge Soler (RH/KCR) – GPP play; the quietest 27 homers ever. Never a strong play against lefties, but as previously mentioned, should get 2 to 3 at-bats after Montgomery is yanked.
- Ramon Laureano (RH/OAK) – What a breakout! 20 HR, 12 SB and becoming the most reliable Athletic not named Chapman.
- Jackie Bradley Jr. (LH/BOS) – Not the best track record against Tanaka in their careers but that might keep him under five percent owned. A GPP-only play.