Solid 10 game slate of DFS action today on what is normally a day with fewer games due to travel.
We do have a Coors field game, but it’s tough to break that one down as they play a day/night double header. You will probably have a few regulars sitting on either end of that one, so make sure the guys you’re using are in the lineup. This game should have one of the higher totals on the day, especially because the weaker pitchers are pitching the night game, the one included on the main slate.
Outside of Coors we have a couple high projected totals as well. The Cleveland Indians are projected for over 6 runs against Daniel Norris and the Tigers. They lit him up for 6 runs a few starts back, right before the all-star break. It’s not normally an offense I target heavily, but it’s tough to ignore the high total and the bad pitching they’ll face.
The Red Sox are also a team that pops off the page today. They have over a 6 total and face a suspect pitcher in Thornton for the Blue Jays. We have a handful of other teams between 5-5.5 runs today, but those teams are well below the top projected options and ownership should reflect that.
The Dodgers are an interesting team and flying a bit too low under the radar today. Zac Eflin has been falling apart recently and those left-handed bats that fill up the Dodgers lineup are all in good spots against him. The FanDuel prices are reasonable on these guys too and the park shift to homer-friendly Philly makes them very interesting options.
I’m also pretty high on the Angels today as a sneaky GPP stack. Framber Valdez is likely to pitch the bulk of the early innings as a secondary pitcher after the opener. He’s sucked lately, getting lit up for at least 4 runs in 3 innings or less over his last 3 starts. The righties profile best against him, but even a lefty like Ohtani makes sense as you will likely see 3-5 different pitchers for the Astros with Framber being the main lefty and the others likely to be righties that are available to chew up innings.
I think both the Dodgers and Angels come in lower owned than the Red Sox and any pieces of Coors, which makes them ones to consider for GPPs.
Top Stacks: Colorado Rockies, Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Indians
Sneakier GPP Stacks: Los Angeles Dodgers, Los Angeles Angels, San Francisco Giants
HR Call: Cody Bellinger
10% HR: Freddie Freeman
5% HR Call: Jordan Luplow
1% HR Call: Yoan Moncada
Stephen Vogt – I’m not paying up for a catcher today, especially when a cheap option like Vogt has been hitting up in the order, has a good matchup, and gets the best park bump in the league going from SF to Colorado. The Giants do have two games today, so hopefully he’s catching the nightcap and not the early one.
Brian McCann – The park shift from Atlanta to Milwaukee is a very solid one for upside. The kid Houser is more of a GB pitcher for the Brewers, but he’s been dreadful to Lefties this year. McCann is a cheaper LHB option in a good park and one that should be lowish-owned with upside in GPPs.
Dustin Garneau/Kevan Smith – Jonathon Lucroy went down with an injury and these two have manned the platoon behind him for the Angels. I love the Angels lineup against Framber Valdez and the slew of back end relievers the Astros will likely throw at them today, so any cheap pieces at tough to fill positions are at least worthy of consideration, and both of these backup catchers are cheap. I’d prefer Garneau, but really either of them is fine as a punt option.
Freddie Freeman – I have him as one of my top plays and top HR calls of the day. HR’s tend to fly out of Miller Park and Freeman has a decent shot of connecting on one even though he faces a guy who skews more GB heavy. The big thing with Houser is the severity of his splits. He’s tough on righties and dreadful to lefties. Even if Freeman doesn’t go yard, I expect him to be on base via hits and walks all game long.
Brandon Belt – Belt is the #1 hitter on the Giants against RHP and, furthermore, he’s been leading off for them lately. He’s priced up a bit due to Coors, but not a ton. Lefties have a well above average wOBA and hard contact rate in limited innings against the young Chi Chi Gonzalez, but the pattern does show that is his weakness, and Belt is the best guy on the Giants to exploit it.
Daniel Murphy – Make sure he is in the lineup, (as we need to do with all Giants and Rockies because of the doubleheader today), but if he is, the game sets up well for lefties. Dereck Rodriguez has allowed a well above average wOBA to them and he currently owns a WHIP over 1.40 with ERA and xFIP over 5. That’s a guy we want to pick on in a ballpark this good for offensive upside.
Carlos Santana – I rarely play Santana, especially against a lefty at that ballpark. Remember these switch hitters batting from the right side have a much tougher time than when we see them from the left. With that said, Norris is giving up about 1.5 HR/9, has an ERA and xFIP over 4.50 and was lit up for 6 runs by the Indians the last time they met. With a huge projection today, you can’t ignore the Cleveland Bats.
Joey Votto (DK Only) – On FanDuel he is $3300 and we have other options above and below him I like a ton more. On DK though, he’s $3400, and that is way too low. I understand this has not been a vintage Votto season, but Hendricks does struggle with lefties. Hendricks has seen his numbers jump across the board and is still working his way back from an injury. If anyone takes advantage of him today, it’s likely Votto, as the next best lefty is Winker and he is banged up after sitting out over the weekend.
Max Muncy – I’m high on Dodgers today as I think they smash the Phillies and Zac Eflin. Eflin has fallen off the rails after a hot start and the park switch is a major upgrade for the Dodgers. Eflin currently has a 3.78 ERA, but the xFIP is a run higher, and that is more in line with his career numbers. He also has given up 1.53 HR/9 this year with severe splits. He’s tough on righties but sucks against lefties who own a .360 wOBA and a HR every 4 innings of work against him. Muncy has a .376 wOBA, .268 ISO score and a 139 wRC+ against RHP. He just profiles so well here at a position where it’s tough to find power and upside at a reasonable price.
Cavan Biggio – Rick Porcello is struggling with 5+ runs allowed in each of his last three games, including one against this same opponent. His ERA and xFIP are both over 5, a full run higher than his career averages. He also has an elevated HR/9 this year, up from just under 1 to 1.35 on the season. It’s only been 100 AB sample at this level for Cavan, but he’s flashed some pop and is getting good lineup real estate near the top of the order.
Jason Kipnis – Still pretty reasonably priced. The LvL matchup is obviously not ideal, but the Indians have one of the higher team totals on the day and if they get to Norris, you’ll likely see a few late-game at-bats against RH relievers.
Rafeal Devers – He is 12-for-32 in July with 4 homers and 14 RBI. Lefties have an above average wOBA and power numbers against Thornton and the Red Sox have one of the bigger totals on the day.
Yoan Moncada – I’m not a guy who plays him a ton, especially since the move from 2B to a much more stacked 3B, but I like him as a GPP play today. Jakub Junis has an ERA over 5 and xFIP just under with 1.69 HR/9. He is giving up over 40% hard contact and has allowed lefties to hit above league average against him in wOBA and ISO scores. Moncada should be very low owned here and the matchup is a favorable one for him.
Jose Ramirez – He’s finally showing signs of life with a six-game hitting streak where he has gone 8-for-25 with 3 homers. The Indians have a huge team total and face a guy in Norris that they lit up last time out. Norris has allowed about 1.5 HR/9 this year and righties are doing the damage. The switch hitting Ramirez is dangerous from both sides of the plate when he’s right, and after battling through injury recovery, he seems to be on the right path and still a bit underpriced.
David Fletcher – Angels are in a good spot here as they face a weak pitcher in Framber Valdez and likely the back end of the Astros Bullpen. Fletcher has been on fire with a ton of multi-hit games lately. In fact, he’s 8-for-19 recently, so he’s hitting the ball as well as anyone in the league right now. Given the big bats behind him that should be able to drive him in for runs scored, the price and ownership projections make him a very solid option in any format today.
Francisco Lindor – Not a huge fan of paying up here, but if I do, Lindor is the guy. He stands out due to the big total and weak pitching they face today. Lindor is not having his best year, but no one on the Indians really is. He still has 14 homers and 13 stolen bases with 45 runs scored, so he’s got a lot of upside even in what is a down season for him.
Corey Seager – We talked about the Dodgers and the lefties numbers against Eflin. Seager is also on a bit of a down year, but his numbers since his call up against RHP puts him as a top option today anyway. .376 wOBA with over a .200 ISO score is good enough for a massive 137 wRC+ score and that makes him an intriguing guy who likely flies under the radar at SS. The FD price is very inviting and a big reason I am interested in him.
Brandon Crawford – Crawford is another guy who feels a bit cheap for playing in a big total game at Coors field. I’m praying he gets to play the nightcap as lefties have shown the ability to hit starter Chi Chi Gonzalez for Colorado. Crawford is only $3700 on DK and a cool $3000 on FD. Would have expected more of a price bump in Coors, which is why I’m willing to chance him.
Cody Bellinger – Due to the uncertainty around Trout, Bellinger is my #1 OF option today. Eflin allows a .360 wOBA to lefties with a HR every 4 innings of work. Philly is a park upgrade for the Dodgers and Eflin has been regressing from his lofty early season perch. Bellinger owns a .393 wOBA, .299 ISO, and a 149 wRC+ since 2016 against RHP and has 30+ homers already this year.
Mike Trout – Let me start by saying that he did leave the game yesterday with an injury. This matchup as discussed is one of the better ones to target today. I’m praying he is in because I have him graded out as my #1 OF on this slate. If he does miss today, guys like Justin Upton and Albert Pujols are still viable, and a Trout-less Angels stack would be much cheaper to play.
JD Martinez – Red Sox lefties have an easier time, but Thornton is only league average against RHBs too. JD is way above league average even in same handed spots. His .397 wOBA is elite, his .279 ISO is elite, and his 149 wRC+ since 2016 is also elite. With the Red Sox having one of the higher team totals, you want to have exposure to the potential explosion of offense in that game.
Mookie Betts – Betts is a tad below JD but not by much with numbers that read like this since 2016 against same handed pitchers: .382 wOBA, .220 ISO, and a 137 wRC+. I prefer JD, but Mookie is also well above average.
Charlie Blackmon – Every lefty in the Rockies’ lineup for the late game is in a plus spot against D-Rod. Not only is the park shift one of the worst possible in baseball for Rodriguez, but he struggles with left-handed bats who are well above average against him. Blackmon’s numbers and track record v. RHP are elite. Since 2016, the guy owns a .400+ wOBA, .275 ISO and a 139 wRC+.
David Dahl – Not as big a bat as Blackmon, but closer than you think. The recent all-star selection has a .377 wOBA, .245 ISO and a 120 wRC+ against RHP since 2016. With this game being one of the higher totals, if Dahl gets into the late lineup, I want a piece of him.
Andrew Benintendi – Lefties are the ones who project best against Thornton here today. Benintendi has a solid 120 wRC+ score and the Red Sox have a high team total. Getting as much exposure to the best spots is even more critical on less than full slates. While he is not an elite option I feel the need to jam in to my lineups, I do like his price and projection today.
Lorenzo Cain – Cain is the top bat on the Brewers for me today. He lacks power, but he is their best hitter against left-handed pitching. Max Fried has been crushed by righties who own a .345 wOBA against him and have 12 homers in 73 innings of work. Add in the negative park shift for Fried and looking at these righties makes a lot of sense. Cain is my favorite, but Ryan Braun is also interesting here.
Jordan Luplow – Elite power and a massive split that favors him against left-handed pitching. The huge total for the Indians makes him a guy I am considering hard today. Luplow is a little bit of a risk though as they will sub in Tyler Naquin later in a game if a righty is on the mound, but Luplow is good at taking weak lefties yard and that’s what Norris is for the Tigers.
Joc Pederson – Last but certainly not least is my boy Joc Pederson. He has not been great lately, but his numbers profile well here. We’ve discussed Eflin a lot today and this is another guy with power in a positive park shift against a pitcher who sucks against lefties. Plus, Pederson is one of the cheapest options on the Dodgers and may even be hitting near the top of the order again today. I like Alex Verdugo too, but prefer Peterson if given the choice. If either is up in the order I like them more, and if one is batting near the top and the other near the bottom, I could easily be persuaded to switch between the two. Point is you want lefties with pop against Eflin and Pederson profiles a tad better than Verdugo in that regard.