We have 14 games on this second-to-last Friday before the All-Star Break because the Yankees and Red Sox are in route to jolly old England to play one another in London. The true test of dominance will come at Coors Field where the great Hyun-Jin Ryu (and his six total walks) battles it out against the Rockies in low 90 degree heat.
Outside of Ryu, Jacob deGrom, Cole Hamels, Jose Berrios and Mike Soroka, it truly feels like a big-time hitters’ slate because the remainder of the SPs on the slate are all pretty much average or below average. The Dodgers carry the biggest implied team run total on the slate (6.4 late night Thursday) with the Brewers, Nationals, Rockies and Indians all coming in at 5.0 or higher. We might see the same for the Twins once that line is out in Vegas as well.
The masses will just plug Dodger bats in and build around them but the Indians, Blue Jays and Nationals are all viable pivot stacks. Personally, I think that the Royals against second-year RHP Sean Reid Foley are in play. It’s a great park for hitters, Reid Foley has been horrendous in the minors, and can you really trust a guy with three first names?
Some other sneaky stacks listed below and you’ll get some supplementary info, data and ideas that should help formulate which direction to go with your cash games and stacks. Let’s get it!
Chalky Stacks: LAD…WAS, CLE, TOR, MIN, HOU
Sneaky Stacks: KC, SDP, PHI, LAA, MLW
Favorite Stacks: LAD, KC, CLE, LAA, HOU
Chalk Home Run: Cody Bellinger
Sneaky Home Run:Jorge Soler
Core 4 DK: Muncy (1B) + Altuve (2B) + Bellinger (OF) + Arteaga or Edman (SS) – punt
Core 4 FD: Thames (1B) + Dozier (2B) + Bellinger (OF) + Verdugo (OF)
CASH: Roberto Perez (RH/CLE), Francisco Mejia (SW/SDP),
Will Smith (RH/LAD)optioned to minors
Very much like Cleveland’s offense tonight in Baltimore, particularly some of these right-handed bats. Rookie John Means is coming off the IL with a shoulder issue and Perez has been crushing lefties with aplomb this season (.322 ISO and 6 HR in 69 PA). Only thing is we might see his backup Kevin Plawecki in the lineup today. Mejia is the Chosen One, at least as far as Padres’ catchers go since he’s a far superior talent to Austin Hedges in every way. I’m on board with him as a $3,300 punt against walking Michael Wacha tonight.
GPP: James McCann (RH/CHW), Yan Gomes (RH/WAS), J.T. Realmuto (RH/PHI)
Jose Berrios is a tough customer but McCann has had his number in a small sample size (5-for-11 with 2 HR, 7 RBI). Could be worth a whirl as a one-off. Gomes absolutely stinks but he’s a viable punt with a lefty on the mound for the Tigers (Daniel Norris). Realmuto is typically a cash game guy, but he hasn’t been up to snuff in the power department. I’m on board with him in either cash or GPP’s because he’s still priced reasonably but I don’t always love to use hitters in Miami for cash games.
CASH: Matt Olson (LH/OAK), Joc Pederson on FD (LH/LAD),
Lucas Duda (LH/KCR), Eric Thames on FD (LH/MLW)
Olson is one of the league’s best power hitters and he’s been flexing since returning off IL. He’s up to 14 homers in about 200 plate appearances after smashing another one yesterday. Bulk innings guy Felix Pena has been rather putrid lately allowing five dingers in his last three and seven earned runs the game prior. Joc needs no explanation for his utilization tonight.
Duda may not sound like cash game material, but a power hitter for just 3k on DK, he’s worth punting with tonight, facing Sean Reid-Foley (5.87 ERA and 6.65 BB/9 in Triple-A). Hard not to consider Thames for just $2.5k on FanDuel today at home against a lefty. He’s a nice core cash play that helps you fit Dodgers or any pivot stack off that.
GPP: Howie Kendrick on FD (RH/WAS), CJ Cron (RH/MIN), Rhys Hoskins (RH/PHI)
Kendrick is $5000 on DK (1B/2B) and pretty much only usable in Nats’ stacks but on FD where he’s reasonably priced, we can use him in cash or tourneys. Cron has cooled off a bit this past week including that putrid 1-for-7 in the super extra innings game yesterday. But he’s still among the best in baseball this season in pulverizing lefties (.343 ISO) so it would be nice if career minor-leaguer southpaw Justin Nicolino would be getting the start. I’d be fine if it’s Ross Detwiler too, but much less so since he’s a righty. Hoskins is 2-for-4 with a homer against Elieser Hernandez and has been heating up of late with 3 HR in his last five.
CASH: Brian Dozier (RH/WAS), Max Muncy (LH/LAD), Jose Altuve (RH/HOU), Keston Hiura (RH/MLW)
Dozier is your punt play of the day at 2B as he’s just $3400 on DK and $2500 on FD. These days, we should only be playing him against LHP’s as he’s been crushing them this season (.333 ISO, .447 wOBA). Muncy crushed two bombs in the first game of the Coors series and will be popular today regardless of price with Antonio Senzatela on the mound and the fact that it will be incredibly hot in Denver again. Altuve’s been arguably baseball’s most consistent hitter of the past three years and the fact that he’s just $3900 on DK is hard to pass on. All a matter of roster construction today but I also do like him against the veteran lefty Tommy Milone. Hiura is back, baby. He’d be seeing high ownership in any other day, but there are just so many options. Listed anyways since he’s been absolutely mashing at Triple-A.
GPP: Brandon Lowe (LH/TBR), Lourdes Gurriel Jr on DK (RH/TOR), Garrett Hampson (RH/COL), Mike Moustakas (LH/MLW)
Lowe will be very low percentage today since he’s pretty much off folks’ radars since this Rays’ offense has been quiet of late. He’s 4.2k (DK) and 3.3k (FD) and should be leading off against the righty Lance Lynn who despite his strikeout dominance, still has a 4.32 ERA this season. Gurriel is now priced over 5k on DraftKings but that’s because he’s been legitimately baseball’s best hitter against LHP this past month. In just 63 PA, he has seven homers and a .344 average against them. Yes, it’s Ryu on the mound but Hampson is starting to liven up at the plate of late and is just 3k on DK. Consecutive 17 DKP games is not too shabby. It’s a loaded position so we’ll have to include Moustakas at home against a righty. Mostly GPP though because Muncy is in Coors Field and Dozier/Altuve are such values.
CASH: Anthony Rendon (RH/WAS), Justin Turner (RH/LAD), Jose Ramirez (SW/CLE)
Rendon against a lefty has been in play all season long. He has a 51% hard-hit rate and team-leading .344 ISO against them. Turner smashed one yesterday and though we prefer him against lefties, certainly in play today in Colorado. Jo-Ram has quietly been heating up despite a measly .103 ISO against lefties. He’s priced in the midrange and should be included in any Indians’ stacks we build today.
GPP: Nolan Arenado (RH/COL), Vlad Guerrero Jr (RH/TOR), Eugenio Suarez (RH/CIN)
Arenado against a lefty in Coors is usually a lock-and-stock cash game play, but a bit different situation today with Ryu on the mound. Guerrero hasn’t taken a ball deep in 18 games. So why do we keep playing him? Because he’s cheap, in a good matchup in his home park against a lefty and positive regression isn’t far away. Suarez is another guy who is undervalued. Dirt cheap at just $2,700 on FD because of the matchup with Cole Hamels. I’d consider him for GPPs regardless.
CASH: Humberto Arteaga (RH/KCR), Francisco Lindor (SW/CLE), Alex Bregman (RH/HOU)
Arteaga is Mondesi’s temporary fill-in and is mostly intriguing to us because he’s only $2200 on DK and doesn’t have a bad matchup. Very little power but he can get on base – 8 and 12 DKP in his last two. Lindor is one of baseball’s best hitters and is as consistent as they come. Hitting close to .300 on the season with 12 HR / 12 SB in 61 games. Bregman has some positive regression against lefties coming his way. The power’s there (seven homers in 86 PA) but he’s hitting just .247 against them. But a .315 ISO assures us that all is good there. The Astros have been struggling but Milone is certainly due to be caught in the inevitable crossfire, which may start today.
GPP: Tommy Edman (SW/STL; 2B/3B on DK), Fernando Tatis Jr (RH/SDP), Trea Turner (RH/WAS)
Edman is off to a tremendous start to his big-league career (8-for-20 with a homer and two swipes), continuing what he’s been doing in Triple-A. Very intriguing as a punt if he’s in the lineup today. Tatis is a beast (.368 with a .450 OBP this past month) but will cost you a pretty penny ($5600 DK, $4000 FD). He and Trea are sneaky today and will be low percentage because of so much ownership loaded in the Dodgers-Rockies today. There’s no one outside of 150-lineup players who will be planning to pay up for a shortstop so it’s a way of being contrarian without being stupid.
EXPENSIVE: Cody Bellinger (LH/LAD), Joc Pederson on DK (LH/LAD), Christian Yelich (LH/MLW), Joey Gallo (LH/TEX), Nelson Cruz (RH/MIN), Domingo Santana (RH/SEA), Shohei Ohtani (LH/LAA) + Mike Trout (RH/LAA), Marcell Ozuna (RH/STL)
Rarely do we see a player get up over 5k on FD but that’s the case with Belli today. Over his last three: 27.9, 24.9, 21.7 FDP. Can he make it 20-plus in four straight? Because of Coors, Yelich and the Brewers will be underowned today. That’s also because of recency bias and the fact that people are probably disappointed from their chalk fail on the morning slate. Yelich at home against a righty is always in play no matter the price. Gallo crushed two bombs yesterday and despite Yonny Chirinos being a stellar pitcher (3.00 ERA, 5% BB, 31% HH) he does have a penchant for giving up solo shots. I won’t stack Rangers today but would consider a Gallo one-off. Mariners’ Santana is 5-for-5 against Wade Miley and that’s got to mean something, right? The Angels at home in warm temps against one of the top-five in homers allowed the past two seasons (Mike Fiers) will be a very underutilized stack. Fiers has a 5.80 ERA away from his home stadium.
MIDRANGE: Bryce Harper (LH/PHI), Jorge Soler (RH/KCR), Lourdes Gurriel Jr on FD (RH/TOR), Jordan Luplow+ Oscar Mercado on FD (RH/CLE), Alex Verdugo on FD (LH/LAD), Austin Meadows (LH/TBR), David Peralta (LH/ARI), Franmil Reyes (RH/SDP)
Plenty of options in the middle range. Harper will be on the radar in three-max tourneys because he’s priced so cheaply and homered yesterday. Soler is a solid pivot around the same price and don’t forget that he’s been mashing (21 HR). These Royals are mighty sneaky today. Gurriel is much more reasonably priced on FD if you want to run a Blue Jays’ stack. As if I haven’t mentioned enough Indians, there’s their #2 hitter, the rookie Mercado, and Luplow who is used specifically against left-handed pitching. Verdugo is cheap on FD and will be chalky there – I’m good with it.
CHEAP: Jake Marisnick (RH/HOU), Randal Grichuk (RH/TOR) + Teoscar Hernandez (RH/TOR), Jose Martinez (RH/STL), Eloy Jimenez (RH/CHW)
Marisnick has been fantastic against LHP this season – a .421 on-base percentage and a .449 wOBA. He’s got some of that bottom-of-the-lineup pop. Grichuk is a very streaky fella but has a couple homers over the past few days and is hitting .310 in his last 10. Consider him and his teammate Teoscar against the lefty. Martinez is very cheap and is a solid option when there’s a lefty on the mound. He’s hitting .342 against them this season. Eloy gets a tough matchup but that really doesn’t mean much to the rookie as he can go deep off anyone at any time. If Berrios’ blister issue pops back up, it could negatively affect his release and his outing overall.