A fairly straightforward seven-gamer with wind blowing out in Wrigley, expected rain in Cleveland and four of the seven games division battles. Kind of wild to see, but Lucas Giolito is nearly 12k on DraftKings ($11,900 to be exact) where the great Clayton Kershaw is actually 1,500 cheaper ($10,400). Kershaw is slightly more expensive than Giolito on FD ($11,000 to $10,700). Giolito has been one of baseball’s best pitchers this season (2.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 104:39 K:BB) but runs into a bulldozing Red Sox squad and is coming off his worst start in a couple months (6 ER / 3HR @ CHC). I’ll lean on the side of a Giolito bounce-back and for the most part plan to avoid Boston bats despite five-plus projected runs.
Hopefully rain doesn’t foil our potential barnburner at Progressive Field where Brad Keller and Adam Plutko toe the rubber in a game with a 10-run implied total with hot and humid weather that’s fantastic for bats. Wind blowing out in Wrigley is good for Cubs and Braves bats even though two veterans (Julio Teheran and Jon Lester) will be pitching. Lester has been excellent at home (2.76 ERA) compared to on the road (5.82) but the Braves have been on a tear of late scoring more runs (52) than any other team except for the Yankees. Teheran got pummeled by the Braves in his last start (six runs) and appears to be very lucky overall this season (3.40 ERA, 5.08 xFIP). He has reduced longballs allowed and has been uncharacteristically stout against lefty bats, but is still walking opposing batters at a rate of over 11 percent and serving up hard contact at nearly a 40 percent clip. That’s particularly scary for him in this matchup with wind howling and blowing out at Wrigley Field.
Some will consider Phillies’ right-handed bats against Steven Matz but don’t sleep on the lefties. Matz has only accumulated 15 innings worth of at-bats against left-handed bats but has been getting clobbered by them (.401 wOBA, .328 BA, 8 ER). A small sample of course, but something that shouldn’t be ignored outright.
Last, but not least, the Yankees have a massive 6.5-run implied total hosting the Jays who will bring a brutal Aaron Sanchez to the mound. Sanchez is walking over five batters-per-nine with a 5.49 ERA and incredibly pathetic 1.67 WHIP. The Yankees will be loaded in cash games and stacked for good reason.
Chalky Stacks: NYY, CHC, BOS, CLE
Sneaky Stacks: COL, LAD
Favorite Stacks: NYY, CHC, COL
Chalk Home Run: Gary Sanchez(RH/NYY)
Sneaky Home Run: Jorge Soler (RH/KCR)
Core 4 DK: Sanchez (C/NYY) + Schwarber (OF/CHC) + Baez (SS/CHC) + Stanton (OF/NYY)
Core 4 FD: Sanchez (C/NYY) + Schwarber (OF/CHC) + Bradley (OF/CLE) + LeMahieu (3B/NYY)
C-Gary Sanchez (RH/NYY), *Roberto Perez (RH/CLE), J.T. Realmuto (RH/PHI)
There’s enough affordable pitching today that you should be able to still build around Gary Sanchize. He crushed three bombs in three straight prior to Sunday’s game and is up to 23 homers on the season. He’s the second-priciest hitter behind Bellinger on DK and tied for second with Freeman and Arenado on FD. He’s the guy I’d want to build around today.
1B- Luke Voit (RH/NYY), Anthony Rizzo (LH/CHC), *Lucas Duda (LH/KCR), Pete Alonso (RH/NYM)
I’ll take the slight savings on Voit over Edwin Encarnacion today but won’t fault you for using E5 in cash. Rizzo against the righty Teheran in Wrigley may just end up being less of a guessing game for us than trying to catch that Yankees’ first baseman’s homer in a bottle. In his career, Rizzo is 4-for-20 with one homer against Teheran. Duda is your guy near minimum salary with some power against a righty in Plutko who serves up homers like hotcakes (eight in his last four starts).
2B– *Jason Kipnis (LH/CLE), Ozzie Albies (SW/ATL), McNeil (NYM) and Gurriel (TOR) on DK
Ride the hot wave with Kipnis while you can: four multi-hit games in his last seven and a very nice matchup with Brad Keller. Albies crushes lefties, hitting .370 against and boasting a 47% hard-hit rate against them. McNeil and Gurriel fit well on DK today as they’ve been crushing of late and 2B is incredibly shallow today.
3B– DJ LeMahieu (RH/NYY), Nolan Arenado (RH/COL), *Jose Ramirez (SW/CLE), Kris Bryant (RH/CHC)
Good lord, LeMahieu! He’s been the most consistent of the Bronx Bombers and is slashing .357/.426/.667 over his last 10. Check out these last six DK logs: 31, 11, 18, 21, 12, 16. He’s a cash game staple despite the expensive tag. Arenado against a subpar lefty (Drew Pomeranz) though Vegas thinks this will be a low-scoring affair (eight runs combined, implied). Jo-Ram is heating up (hitting almost .300 in his last 10 and a couple swipes) and Bryant as part of your Cubs’ stacks.
SS–Jean Segura (RH/PHI), Javier Baez (RH/CHC), Dansby Swanson (RH/ATL), Brendan Rodgers (RH/COL)
Love Segura against lefties – he has a .411 wOBA and a .339 ISO against them. Baez is up to 18 homers now with two in his last four and he’s very affordable on both sites (4.3 DK, 3.4 FD). He’s my favorite shortstop on the slate but if I needed the savings on DK, I’d consider Segura for 500 less. Swanson usually hits second against lefties since he’s been hitting them well. Can you believe Swanson already has 14 homers this year? Finally, mark my words – Rodgers is about to heat up. Hopefully it starts Monday (and he’s in the lineup), but it’s coming. He’s been the Rockies’ top prospect for a couple of years and has sorely disappointed in the majors thus far, but he’s much too good of a hitter for things not to start going his way soon.
OF– Jeff McNeil (LH/NYM), *Bobby Bradley (LH/CLE), Giancarlo Stanton (RH/NYY), Kyle Schwarber (LH/CHC), Lourdes Gurriel Jr (RH/TOR), Ronald Acuña (RH/ATL), Scott Kingery (RH/PHI), Bryce Harper (LH/PHI), Jorge Soler (RH/KCR)
Really don’t mind going a bit cheaper in the outfield today and spending around the bases. No one in baseball outside of Yelich has hit for a better average than McNeil over the last calendar year, if you can believe it. He’s been fantastic as the Mets’ leadoff man and has a .378 average over his last 10. Bradley is a rookie in his second major league game and he’s just $2000 on FD as an outfielder (on DK, a 1B for $3700). He’s been one of the most prominent sluggers in Triple-A (24 HR in 67 games) and has prodigious power. Bradley is also a big boy (6’1’’, 225). Hard to pass on FD for the price. The rest of my one-offs here need very little explanation since they’ve all been hitting well and are in great situations. Schwarber’s the chalkier guy who I’d expect to take a ball deep while Soler is single-digit percent ownership I’d consider as a one-off. Soler’s slugged 4 HR in his last nine games and is among the league leaders with 21. Let me remind you that Plutko’s allowed eight home runs in his last four starts!