Fourteen games on the slate today for our feel-good Friday as the Mets and Cubs play earlier in the day. We shouldn’t expect any rainouts but it’ll be raining some in St. Louis (Angels/Cardinals). With no Coors Field on the slate, the game most will gravitate towards is the White Sox/Rangers (Reynaldo Lopez vs. Ariel Jurado) since that game has an implied total of 11.5. The Rangers have the highest team run total (6.3), followed by the Red Sox (6.0), White Sox (5.4) while the Twins, Yankees, Diamondbacks and Phillies all come in at over five runs implied.
A bit different format today. I’ll list out the stacks and then the preferred hitters without notes.
5.0 implied runs or higher
- Rangers– Popular on FD where they’re very reasonably priced but DK ownership will be subdued a bit because four of their guys are at $4500 or higher. Don’t mind dipping down to the lower portion of the lineup where there’s some serious power (Odor, Guzman).
- WhiteSox– Jurado has allowed a homer in five straight games and got crushed for nine hits and seven earned runs in his last start (@ CIN). There are some very affordable bats here (the rookie catcher Collins and switch-hitting Yolmer), but if you want Moncada/Abreu/Eloy, you’ll have to pay up.
- RedSox– The big three (Betts/Martinez/Bogaerts) are all at 5k or more on DK (Benintendi is $4700) and I doubt any of them will be over 15 percent owned there today given the size of the slate and folks’ respect for rookie righty Trent Thornton. Devers is likely resting today (but won’t go IL). A sneaky stack.
- Yankees– Astros’ Brad Peacock has a 4.11 ERA on the road and has allowed 4 HR / 8 ER in his last two starts (both at home), looking very hittable. Yankee Stadium against these big boppers is a tough place to play and they are ever more loaded with Stanton, Encarnacion and Judge added to the lineup (yep, Judge is back!). I’d load ‘em up and hope they get to Peacock early since the backend of this Astros’ bullpen is rock solid (Pressley/Osuna).
- Twins– Jakob Junis stinks, plain and simple (5.34 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) and though these Minny bats have cooled off somewhat, there are price tags are all almost mid-range today. Cruz and Kepler are the only ones at 5k or more on DK. On FD, guys like Astudillo, Cave and Castro are all very cheap (3k or less). With Marwin Gonzalez on IL and Mitch Garver likely sitting with a minor injury, we’ll like see both Castro and Astudillo in the lineup today.
- Diamondbacks– A very high total for them today so I wonder what Vegas knows (or thinks it knows) considering Jeff Samardzija isn’t an awful pitcher. Granted, he’s worse on the road but he’s faired well against this group (Peralta/Jones/Dyson/Marte are 9-for-56 career against him). Their bullpen is decent too. I’m personally off this stack today.
- Phillies– Sandy Alcanatara has a walk rate near 10% but has been terrific in June (3 starts: 2.50 ERA, 2.98 wOBA). He’s worse on the road of course and this team has some big boppers (Harper, Bruce, Hoskins, Kingery). Kapler tried to get Harper going by batting him leadoff yesterday but to no avail. He has more strikeouts than anyone in the NL this year (94) after whiffing three more times yesterday. Not someone we can use right now while he’s off his game. Lukewarm on this stack.
Lower-owned sneaky stacks
- Nationals– Intriguing in that it’s Dallas Keuchel’s first start for them and the Nationals are one of the best-hitting teams against lefties this season. They have five guys with ISO’s over .240 against LHP (Rendon, Dozier, Parra, Kendrick, Suzuki) and also Turner to boot. Don’t expect many to stack against Keuchel, but I’m intrigued.
- Brewers– Don’t ever count the Brew-Crew out when they are at home. Sonny Graydoes own a .188 BAA on the road this season and dropped a 30 DKP gem on the Brewers in Miller Park last month, but it’s doubtful a repeat performance occurs here. Yelich, Moustakas, Cain and Braun are all in play here.
- Athletics– The one thing we know is that when there’s a left-handed pitcher on the mound, it’s usually a good opportunity to stack A’s. The Dbacks are the only offense with a higher ISO against LHP and these A’s bats also rank top-four in wOBA and HH% against lefties. Olson (a lefty himself – .395), Chapman (.362), Davis (.333) and Phegley (.326) lead the way in ISO but even guys like Canha, Piscotty, Pinder and Semien hit them well. It’s a respectable Jalen Beekson the mound as the innings-eater for the Rays today so that’s the only reason I’m not going nuts with these guys today.
- Rays– Oakland’s Coliseum is a place where opposing offenses go to die, so that’s my main concern here. The ballpark is 25thin park factor for runs (0.822) and 21stfor homers (.818), but hey, Yankee Stadium is 20thfor homers this season so you know they’ll likely be some corrections coming. Either way, there are some fine bats to use (Meadows, Lowe, Kiermaier, Wendle lefties; Pham, Garcia righties) since it’s rookie Tanner Andersonmaking just his second career big-league start.
- Angels– Yes, the Cardinals cheat at home (lol) but this Halos’ squad is rip-roaring hot and face Michael Wacha, a guy who really shouldn’t be a starting pitcher. His 12.5% walk rate is second-worst in the league behind Darvish and it’s a bad matchup for him against a very patient Angels’ offense. One of my favorites of the day.
- Mariners– Not sure how sneaky exactly because it’s some Baltimore garbage coming their way again and their best pitcher (Bundy) pitched yesterday. Today it’ll probably be reliever Paul Fry opening with lefty Sean Gilmartin getting the bulk load since Means is on IL. Gilmartin was actually decent in Triple-A (40:11 K:BB and a 2.48 ERA). Not much stackability here with their best lefty-crushers traded (Ency) or hurt (Haniger) so that leaves Santana (OF), Murphy © and Beckham (MI) as their best boppers against lefties. Like 2% owned here.
- Astros– Mad respect for this offense and they’re glad to have Altuve back, but this is the perfect matchup for Paxton to mow fools down and have a double-digit K game.G
- Reds– Do like some of these bats in general and Miller Park is great for offenses but between a solid Chase Anderson and even better bullpen, not expecting much offense from them today.
- Royals– There are some bats here who could work since Martin Perez has been struggling of late so I’d consider as a cheap, off-the-wall stack that will go totally overlooked.
- Giants– A higher implied total (4.75) than we usually see for them and they did score eight runs on the Dodgers’ yesterday but not enough faith here to use them today outside of 150 multi-entry.
- Braves– A low total for them today (4.2) since it’s Strasburg on the mound. Could be sneaky but not one of my favorites today.
- Pirates/Padres– Padres’ lefty Eric Lauer has a weak 6.5% swinging-strike rate and a 7.81 ERA on the road but he handled these Pirates well the last time they played last month. Bell is a beast and the rookie Reynolds has been a revelation (.265 ISO vs LHP) but the rest of these Pirates’ bats really do struggle against left-handed pitching. I’ll be using Joe Musgrove most likely ($5500 on DK is way too cheap) and he’s from San Diego so I won’t be using Padres either.
- Indians/Tigers– I don’t mind Lindor for the Indians but otherwise expect this to be more of a pitchers’ duel with Bauer and Boyd today. Just one-offs from Cleveland’s side.
- Dodgers/Rockies– Two solid aces on the mound in Marquez and Buehler so likely only one-offs like Bellinger or Joc from the Dodgers’ side in case they run into a homer.
- Cardinals– A pass for me against rookie Canning who has the highest SwK% (16.1 percent) on this slate.
- Orioles– Yes, Mike Leake could be a stiff sometimes but he’s been damn sharp at home (2.95 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) so I’m not messing with him today.
- Marlins– Passing completely as I expect Aaron Nola to have a good start today.
- Blue Jays– Hell no against Sale who might strike out 15 Jays today.
Favorite Stacks: Angels, Rangers, White Sox, Yankees, Nationals
CASH: Gary Sanchez (RH/NYY), Tom Murphy (RH/SEA), Chance Sisco (LH/BAL), Jason Castro (LH/MIN)
GPP: Yasmani Grandal (RH/MLW), Martin Maldonado (RH/KCR), Zack Collins (LH/CHW)
CASH: Edwin Encarnacion (RH/NYY), Jose Abreu (RH/CHW), Ronald Guzman (LH/TEX)
GPP: Rhys Hoskins (RH/PHI), Freddie Freeman (LH/ATL), Ji-Man Choi (LH/TBR)
CASH: Brian Dozier (RH/WAS), Rougned Odor (LH/TEX), Ketel Marte (SW/ARI)
GPP: Whit Merrifield (RH/KCR), Jose Altuve (RH/HOU), Yolmer Sanchez (SW/CHW)
CASH: Yoan Moncada (RH/CHW), Anthony Rendon (RH/WAS), Asdrubal Cabrera (SW/TEX)
GPP: Matt Chapman (RH/OAK), Jung Ho Kang (RH/PIT), Jose Ramirez (SW/CLE)
CASH: Trea Turner (RH/WAS), Francisco Lindor (SW/CLE), Elvis Andrus (RH/TEX)
GPP: Alex Bregman (RH/HOU), Xander Bogaerts (RH/BOS), Marcus Semien (RH/OAK)
EXPENSIVE: Christian Yelich (LH/MLW), Mike Trout (RH/LAA), Mookie Betts (RH/BOS), Shin Soo Choo (LH/TEX), Max Kepler (LH/MIN), Shohei Ohtani (LH/LAA), Andrew Benintendi (LH/BOS)
MIDRANGE: Austin Meadows (LH/TBR), Justin Upton (RH/LAA), Khris Davis (RH/OAK), Nomar Mazara (LH/TEX), Lorenzo Cain (RH/MLW)
CHEAP: Aaron Hicks (SW/NYY), Stephen Piscotty (RH/OAK), Jorge Bonifacio (RH/KCR), Anthony Santander (SW/BAL), Harrison Bader (RH/STL)