We’re hoping this slate doesn’t get decimated by poor weather, but there will definitely be some raindrops in three of the five games on this early DK slate that starts at 12:35pm ET with HOU-CIN. That’s one of the games with rain, but the worst we should see is delay, with very little reason for postponing. Also, rain in New York (TBR-NYY) and again in D.C. (PHI-WAS) where these teams are planning for a doubleheader after two straight days of rainouts.
FanDuel split their slate up with a ‘very early’ slate of three games and an ‘early only’ of just two (BAL-OAK, MLW-SDP) so we’ll just concentrate on the five-gamer on DraftKings here.
The Athletics will be the most sought-after stack after dropping 16 on the Orioles last night and facing lefty Josh Rogers who has given up 7 ER in 8 IP (majors) and 52 ER, 18 HR in 55 IP (Triple-A). Hard not to love the A’s again today. I’ll be rocking some Astros’ lefties again (came through yesterday!) against Reds’ Tyler Mahle (.366 wOBA, 8 HR allowed in 30 IP vs LHH’s) and planning to fade Brewers’ bats as I expect a bounce-back start from Matt Strahm after serving up 13 ER over his last two starts. In his defense, he was hurt and hit the IL after the Marlins’ start and last week was at Coors Field.
P.S. – Welcome back, Altuve!
C – Josh Phegley (RH/OAK), Travis d’Arnaud (RH/TBR), Chance Sisco (LH/BAL)
1B– Mark Canha (RH/OAK), Matt Adams (LH/WAS), Chris Davis (LH/BAL) – stinks but just $2200
2B– Jose Altuve (RH/HOU), Jurickson Profar (SW/OAK), Hernan Perez (RH/MLW)
3B– Matt Chapman (RH/OAK), Alex Bregman (RH/HOU), Daniel Robertson (RH/TBR)
SS– Marcus Semien (RH/OAK), Jean Segura (RH/PHI), Fernando Tatis Jr (RH/SDP)
OF– Khris Davis (RH/OAK), Stephen Piscotty (RH/OAK), Ramon Laureano (RH/OAK), Michael Brantley (LH/HOU), Josh Reddick (LH/HOU), Juan Soto (LH/WAS), Avisail Garcia (RH/TBR), Tommy Pham (RH/TBR)
A very straightforward 10-game afternoon slate where folks will be stacking Halos again as well as both sides of Indians/Rangers with that whopping 11-run implied total and temps in the low 90’s. The Mets/Braves game is an intriguing game stack with a couple of lefties on the mound who can be manhandled (Matz/Fried). The Pirates have gone from -126 to -180 favorites overnight (damn, should have bet that one last night) and the run total has also gone up from 8.0 to 9.0. Very much love Pirates’ bats today with Jordan Zimmermann making his return to the rotation after a long delay. Wind blowing in at Wrigley and Lucas Giolito making his way to face his team’s crosstown rivals so you won’t see many utilizing Cubs’ bats today.
Chalkiest Stacks: CLE, LAA, TEX, ATL
Lower Percentage/Sneaky Stacks: PIT, NYM, MIN
Chalk HR: Pete Alonso, Mets
Favorite Low-% HR: Curtis Granderson, Marlins
Core 4 for Cash: Alonso (1B/NYM) + Rosario (SS/NYM) + Marte (OF/PIT) + Dickerson (OF/PIT)
Kevin Plawecki (RH/CLE), Jonathan Lucroy (RH/LAA), James McCann (RH/CHW)
Indians’ primary backstop Roberto Perez deserves a day off so Plawecki should step in. He’s just $3200 on DK, while Lucroy is $3300 and these two represent the best punt options. Punting is a good way to go at the position today. If spending up, I’m a fan of McCann against Jon Lester. McCann has homered in each of his last two games and has an ISO over 100 points higher in his career against LHP (.213 to .102).
Pete Alonso (RH/NYM), Josh Bell (SW/PIT), C.J. Cron (RH/MIN), Justin Bour (LH/LAA)
Alonso is a solid cash and GPP play and may be the most popular first baseman on the slate. If you can believe it, he currently has an insane .477 ISO (yes, ISO!) against lefties. He’s gone from ‘let’s see if he can make the team out of spring training’ to ‘he’s our savior!’. Price reflects this though. Matchup against a struggling Max Fried works in his favor too.
Bell continues to smash, cranking his 20th of the season yesterday. He has cooled off a touch (hitting .220 in his last 10) and thankfully the price has decreased a bit on DK to reflect this. But he and Freddie Freeman are the most expensive on FD ($4300).
The Twins get Eduardo Rodriguez (5.23 ERA, 1.49 WHIP on the road) and Cron mashes lefties with aplomb (.368 ISO, .439 wOBA). Bour is the sneaky, cheaper option against Aaron Sanchez who is having another poor season (5.04 ERA, 1.60 WHIP).
Rougned Odor (LH/TEX), Kike Hernandez (RH/LAD), Starlin Castro (RH/MIA), Ozzie Albies (SW/ATL)
Nine RBI for Odor in his last 10 as he slowly starts to bring that pathetic average up over the Mendoza Line. We’re expecting a ton of runs scored with this 11 combined run total for the Indians and Rangers and Odor should be in the mix today. Hernandez smashed a pinch-hit grand slam yesterday and has preferred to face lefties this year. Castro is under 3k on DK which makes a few of these Marlins very tempting. Daniel Ponce de Leon can be occasionally sloppy and has a 12.2% BB in the minors. Albies has a .396 wOBA against lefties this season.
Anthony Rendon (RH/WAS), Colin Moran (LH/PIT),Vlad Guerrero Jr (RH/TOR), Jose Ramirez (SW/CLE)
Many will go back to the well with Jo-Ram and some Indians, and I’m not opposed since this bullpen is so stanky, but Joe Palumbo is a decent southpaw with upside, not just someone who sounds like a Mario Bros character. Today, I’d rather pay up for Rendon in good hitting weather against Jake Arrieta or pay down for Moran against J-Zimm. Guerrero will be low-owned against the flyball lefty Andrew Heaney and I still think it’s a good idea to give him a whirl.
Francisco Lindor (SW/CLE), Amed Rosario (RH/NYM), Trea Turner (RH/WAS), Kevin Newman (RH/PIT)
Of this bunch, Lindor will be the guy highest projected because of the matchup. Just FYI, over the course of his career he has been fairly similar in production and with rate stats against both lefties and righties. You just throw him out there regardless of handedness when there’s a good matchup for him.
Rosario may get to lead off today with Alonso to follow and that’s a duo I’d be interested in using today against lefty Max Friedwho has cooled off after a hot April and has allowed 17 runs in his last four starts.
Newman continues to lead off for the Pirates every day and has brought his average up to .320 on the season after hitting .400 over the past ten days (along with three stolen bases).
EXPENSIVE: Mike Trout (RH/LAA), Ronald Acuña (RH/ATL), Shohei Ohtani (LH/LAA), Shin Soo Choo (LH/TEX), Nelson Cruz (RH/MIN)
MIDRANGE: Nomar Mazara (LH/TEX), Justin Upton (RH/LAA), Jordan Luplow (RH/CLE), Lourdes Gurriel Jr (RH/TOR), Starling Marte (RH/PIT)
CHEAP: Corey Dickerson (LH/PIT), Chris Taylor (RH/LAD) – SS on DK, Curtis Granderson (LH/MIA)
The expensive group are some of your more standard plays. Trout, Ohtani, Upton and Acuña will likely see the highest ownership rates. Mookie Betts and JD Martinez played an 18-inning game yesterday so one or both may get the day off today or just be overlooked since most may assume that they’re tired. A matchup with Kyle Gibson isn’t a good thing like it used to be. Luplow is the intriguing mid-range play against a lefty and his price is especially nice on FD ($3000). Gurriel has four homers over his last nine and is the team’s best hitter against southpaws (.333 ISO). As you can see, I’m into Pirates today and their team total has gone up a full run (from 4.2 to 5.2) since lines were initially posted. Granderson is 3k on DK, has seven homers, usually leads off and can be used on occasion – today is one of those days.