Pretty big slate for a Monday with 12 games on the main starting at 7 PM or later. We have some high projected totals although nothing like the slugfests we saw in Coors the last few days. The Rockies and Padres combined for over 20 runs a game in that series and the fantasy scores reflected that as 150s on DK were missing the money lines over the weekend with scores easily topping 200 on both sites not even cashing for 3X or better. I doubt we see those kind of scores again today, so it’s time to get back to shooting for normal levels of production here.
This is not the strongest pitching slate on the high end with only two $10K plays on FD and just three on DK. We have a lot of middle of the road kind of guys going today, which means we have a lot of bats that project well. The Dodgers top the list as the highest projected total. Beede is not good and the Dodgers lineup projects so well against weak right-handed pitching. They stand out head and shoulders above everyone else today. The Athletics are the second highest projected total and it makes sense. Not only do they get a big park upgrade going to Baltimore, but they face a struggling pitching staff. Andrew Cashner has seen his HR/9 jump this year and he currently owns an ERA and xFIP both over 5. None of that is good for him. The Nationals, Cardinals, and the Twins are the three other teams over a 5 projected total today. Each of them has a few interesting options to look at today.
Chalk Stacks: Dodgers, Athletics, Nationals
Sneaky Stacks: Angels, Twins, Indians
HR CALL: Mike Trout
10% HR Call: Matt Chapman
5% HR Call: Eugenio Suarez
1% HR Call: Domingo Santana
Brian McCann – Catcher is not a great position today, so I am not overly excited about McCann. With that being said for the price I like him the best today. McCann hits righties well and Wheeler has been below average to right-handed bats over his career.
Mitch Garver – Garver grades out highly today and is in line for a good game against Rick Porcello. My beef with Garver is more the price than anything else. I had him in my initial lineup for cash on DK, but $5500 is the top price for any catcher on this slate. On FD I’m not using a catcher, so a price break over there doesn’t matter and even there he’s $3500. While Garver projects as the best option today, do you really want to spend up $5500 for him? If you can fit it, sure. Problem is it’s not easy to fit in today.
Curt Casali – Casali is more of a GPP play as he is boom or bust and has been lately too. He draws a favorable matchup against a lefty and that bandbox stadium is the best in the league for homers. If you are looking to save a little and get some GPP winning type of upside, I do think Casali offers us that today.
Freddie Freeman – #1 option at the position for me today. We already mentioned Wheeler and his career numbers against lefties and Freeman is one of the most elite lefties against right-handed pitching in the game. Atlanta is a favorable park for lefty power bats as well, so Freeman grades out top at the position today.
Max Muncy – I am going to be picking on Beede today and Muncy is just another way to do it. On DK the Dodgers have multiple guys with eligibility at multiple positions, so you have a lot of flexibility using them. Muncy is likely to be chalky today, but given the matchup and the highest team total I think it makes a lot of sense. On DK he’s also 2B eligible and that makes him interesting as a high upside guy there at a very weak position.
Trey Mancini – Mike Fiers has a high HR/9. His ERA and xFIP are also nothing special as both are near 5. Baltimore is a great hitter’s park and Fiers numbers show him weaker in same handed situations. So there are many reasons why Trey Mancini grades out well here and I like that FD price for him today.
Cavan Biggio – On FanDuel at under $3K it is tough for me to not save. Biggio has been absolutely on fire and has moved up to the top of that Blue Jays order. Great hitter’s park in Toronto for today and while I am a fan of Felix Pena, he likely misses Biggio’s first AB and may only face him twice throughout the game anyway. Biggio has been hitting everyone lately, so give me him for cheap in a good hitter’s park with prime lineup real estate.
Jason Kipnis – Second is a weak position today, especially on FD. Kipnis is near min price and hitting near the middle of the order. I was not as high on him at first, but the Indians project for over 5 runs, he is dirt cheap, and when you build roster he is a guy that opens up a lot of salary to use elsewhere. He projects well today and for the price he becomes one of the top projected points per dollar guys on FD.
Gleyber Torres – Probably the only guy I would pay up for at the position due to his upside, but I’m not in the mood to pay up today. With the other two guys being so cheap, Torres is a very distant third and the price increase just doesn’t seem like it’ll be worth it today, but he is still better than most of the other stiffs at the position on FD. On DraftKings we can use guys like Max Muncy with multi-positional eligibility here and that is where I would go to spend up on that site.
Matt Chapman – Andrew Cashner is banged up and frankly pitching a bit over his head so far this year. His ERA and xFIP are both over 5, as he hasn’;t been that good. He’s also gone from a guy with a HR/9 under 1 throughout his career to one with a 1.41 HR/9 this year. That HR friendly park is no help to Cashner and Chapman hits righties well with a 129 wRC+ score.
Eugenio Suarez – Euguenio Suarez against a lefty is about as automatic a play at the Great American smallpark as you have. Suarez has shown the ability to hit lefties at an elite level his entire career. Miley has been very good this year, but his ERA is over a run lower than his xFIP, which means regression is coming and it could very well be today in that bandbox ballpark.
Matt Carpenter – Eliseir Hernandez is not scary. His ERA and xFIP in limited innings are both over 5, which was the case in limited innings in 2018 as well. Lefties have done much better against him and Carpenter is the elite lefty on that Cards team. He owns a 133 wRC+ against righties since 2016 with a .371 wOBA and a .243 ISO score. Plus he tops an order with a ton of big bats behind him to bring him in for runs scored too.
Fernando Tatis – I know the last series was in Coors and everyone hit with nearly 10 runs per team for the entire series, but Tatis has also put up a couple 20+ DK point games even before the Coors bump that everyone received. Jhoulys Chacin is no scrub, but he is making his first start off the DL today and he could very well be a little rusty. Either way Tatis has proven he is a beast and deserves to be treated as such.
Francisco Lindor – I was shocked to see the Indians with one of the higher projected team totals today at over 5. They have a lineup I am not in love with and it has shown this year with lessened run production. Lindor is one of the few pieces of that offense I do trust and SS is top heavy here today. I think Lindor flies a bit under the radar and has upside . I know Lance Lynn has looked awesome lately, but I’m not buying his sudden dominance.
Jorge Polanco – The Twins are in a good spot here today against Rick Porcello who seems to not have it anymore. Polanco doesn’t jump off the page, but when you look at the options and see all these guys projected at SS to be low in the order the list narrows itself down pretty quick. Polanco is one of the few guys in a good spot and with upside potential, so he is someone I am considering, but definitely behind the two above him for me.
Mike Trout – My #1 Outfield play on the day. I expect the Angels to smash Edwin Jackson here today. E-Jax is coming off his first decent start in awhile after getting lit up for 5+ runs in that many innings or less over his last few. Both sides of the plate hit E-Jax well and his HR/9 is over 3 this year with an xFIP over 6 and an ERA over 10. It should be bombs away for the Angels today. Trout is my #1 HR call too. 185 wRC+ with a .440 wOBA and a .309 ISO since 2016 is just absurdly elite.
Shohei Ohtani – As elite as Trout is, Ohtani is not far behind. He owns a 161 wRC+ score with a .400+ wOBA and a .300+ ISO. Ohtani’s numbers may trail Trout, but they would be the best numbers v. RHP on most other teams in the league. Both guys are insanely elite. (They also welcome back Justin Upton today and Puello has been crushing as well, so it’s an embarrassment of riches for the Angels in the outfield.)
Cody Bellinger – One of my favorite bats on the day and likely one of the chalkiest too. Beede has pitched a few innings each of the last 2 years and the ERA is over 8 with an xFIP over 5. He sucks to lefties and righties, but Belinger is especially dangerous. He owns a 149 wRC+ since coming into the league on the back of a .392 wOBA and a .289 ISO score. The Dodgers project well for a lot of runs and should be good chalk.
Juan Soto – Jake Arrieta is a shell of his best self. This year especially the lefties have done well against him. Arrieta also has seen his HR/9 rates creep up. Soto projects the best of all the lefties on the Nationals here. His 146 wRC+ against RHP since his call up is elite. He has a very solid .394 wOBA against them and the .228 ISO score is not bad either, especially when you factor in the park upgrade.
Alex Verdugo – I debated him and Joc Pederson, but Pederson isn’t hitting lately even though he has better numbers. I definitely want Dodgers exposure tonight and like the discount on Verdugo over Pederson. Plus Verdugo has been swinging a good bat lately and we already talked about how much we love this matchup for all the Dodgers.
Domingo Santana – Danny Duffy has severe splits. He owns fellow lefties, but has always struggled with good right-handed bats. Santana is not elite, but his numbers are very good against southpaws with a 121 wRC+ since 2016. I can’t go heavy on Mariners here as no one else really stands out with E5 gone and Haniger banged up, but I do still like Domingo Santana as a low owned option.
Phil Ervin – Suarez is the elite bat against lefties, but Ervin is a guy who projects decently as well. He is one of the cheapish options I have considered here today against the righty Miley who is way overdue for a little regression. Great ballpark and right splits to attack with. Ervin has a sneaky good 124 wRC+ with a .363 wOBA against lefties.
Eddie Rosario – Rick Porcello is a guy I am always willing to pick on and Vegas does have the Twins with one of the higher totals on the day. I actually really like them as a stack today, but if I had to pick out a single Twins bat to play, it would be Rosario.
Max Kepler – Kepler is a poor man’s option if you can’t afford Rosario today. Again, a guy who hits righties well and faces a weak pitcher in Porcello who has struggled and projects to do more struggling today.