A very straightforward and to-the-point slate of nine games. We have yet another series at Coors Field with the Padres visiting for four games. You all know how much I love Matt Strahm but even I find his price on DK (9.2k) and on FD (9.8k) rather absurd considering he’s just coming off the IL, has had some bumps in the road and is in Coors Field against a rip-roaring offense. The one bullet Strahm avoids is that Nolan Arenado (hit by pitch on forearm) will probably sit out for precautionary reasons. And Strahm just happens to be a reverse-splits guy with a wOBA that is over 100 points higher against LHH’s (.399, .289 vs RHH’s) and has double the walk rate against lefties this year. Note that just 11 innings of his 60 innings have come against lefties so we may think it’s a small sample, but in fact, it’s a split that’s always been the case with lefties and righties (career .347 wOBA vs LHH, .265 vs RHH). Just keep this in mind in case you were thinking of avoiding the likes of David Dahl and Charlie Blackmon (both are viable in cash today).
With Padres and Rockies eating up one another’s ownership, expect the biggest draw of the slate to come in on Yankees’ bats as they face Ivan Nova. Nova began his MLB career with the Bronx Bombers back in 2010 and had his finest season with them in 2011 (16-4, 3.70 ERA). It’s a much different picture for him now with a career-worst ERA (6.28) and HR/9 (1.63). There are a slew of Yankees’ bats we can feel comfortable about employing today with a core built around Luke Voit and Gary Sanchez. The White Sox also have had the worst bullpen over the past week (9.35 ERA, 5.19 BB/9).
One spot that may end up a bit contrarian is Boston Red Sox bats against a reborn Adrian Sampson who has strung together five consecutive solid starts including a complete game against the A’s last week and a career-high 11 K’s against the Royals the start prior. With newfound respect for Sampson, Red Sox’ bats may be a fine way to get different today as Sampson may well be playing a bit over his head (3.72 ERA / 4.89 xFIP).
One final spot to consider that may be off the beaten path today are Rays against Tyler Skaggs, who’s an extreme flyball pitcher. If they do get to Skaggs early, that would be good news for some of these lefty bats who will be low percentage since the Angels only have one lefty in the pen.
Chalkiest Stacks: NYY, COL, SDP, TOR
Lower Percentage/Sneaky Stacks: ARI, LAD, DET
Favorite Stacks: SDP, NYY, BOS, TBR
Chalk HR: LukeVoit (RH/NYY)
Favorite Low-% HR: YandyDiaz (RH/TBR)
Core 4 for Cash:
DK: Gleyber Torres (2B/NYY) + LukeVoit (1B/NYY) + YandyDiaz (3B/TBR) + Chris Taylor (OF/LAD)
FD: Gleyber Torres (2B/NYY) + Rowdy Tellez (1B/TOR) + Hunter Renfroe (OF/SDP) + Gary Sanchez (C/NYY)
Gary Sanchez (RH/NYY), Mike Zunino (RH/TBR), James McCann (RH/CHW), Chance Sisco (LH/BAL)
Sanchez is the clear breadwinner at the position today. He is tied for fourth in baseball with 20 homers despite playing 12 to 15 less games than almost everyone else around him in that category. Facing Ivan Nova should bode well for him at the plate today.
Zunino is a bargain at just $2700 on DK, but is he really? He’s hit just three homers this season and has an incredibly sad slash line (.176/.228/.319). We’re only considering him here because he helps us save for other positions and because he’s got that raw power, facing an extreme flyball lefty (Tyler Skaggs– nearly 40% FB).
McCann had his hot four-week streak earlier this season and has since cooled off but is still in play as an overlooked option since there’s a lefty on the mound against him (McCann .233 ISO, .444 wOBA vs LHP’s). Sisco is a sneaky play against Stroman who has been off his game lately (9 ER in his last two starts).
You can consider the Coors’ catchers as well – Austin Hedges and Tony Wolters with Hedges having a much higher likelihood of going yard.
Luke Voit (RH/NYY), Daniel Murphy (LH/COL), Rowdy Tellez (LH/TOR), Miguel Cabrera (RH/DET)
Voit is a true righty crusher and 13 of his 16 homers this season have come against righties. Nova gives up 1.6 HR/9 to them.
Murphy is a LvL matchup but we already mentioned Strahm’s tendencies and Murphy has been heating up of late (.375 / 11 RBI in his last 10).
Tellez has been quiet at the plate but crushed a bomb yesterday and is still very cheap with a great matchup against righty Gabriel Ynoa and this stanky bullpen.
Miggy is simply a cheap punt play with Homer Bailey on the mound and very unpredictable from start to start.
Gleyber Torres (RH/NYY), Cavan Biggio (LH/TOR), Kike Hernandez (RH/LAD), Brandon Dixon (RH/DET)
Torres is my favorite of the bunch and he’s one we prefer to play against subpar RHP’s as he’s hit 13 of his 14 homers against them this season.
Biggio led off yesterday and played well so it will be interesting to see if he is back in that spot or if it’s Eric Sogard. Sogard is algorithmically priced to the moon on DK ($5.1k) while only $3.2k on FD. Biggio presents a much better value for us at $3.8k DK / $2.7k FD.
Hernandez I’m intrigued with as someone who can hit a solo shot or two if we get Bad Lester in Dodger Stadium which is very possible with this super warm weather in SoCal.
Dixon doesn’t really get much love because he’s a virtual unknown, but he has a .223 ISO against righties despite a miniscule 2.1% BB against them. Someone to consider including in a possible Tigers’ stack.
DJ LeMahieu (RH/NYY), Yandy Diaz (RH/TBR), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (RH/TOR), Rafael Devers (LH/BOS)
LeMahieu is not only one of the hottest hitters in the game right now, but is also one of the only guys with much of a history against an opposing starting pitcher today. He’s faced Nova 12 times and has six hits and three walks. He hits lefties better though and is very pricey.
Diaz should be the leadoff guy today and is worth cash game consideration because of the extra at-bat possibility, decent pop and multi-hit game potential. Don’t mind picking on Road Skaggs today.
Guerrero in Camden should only get better as the series continues. Decently priced on both sites and should get a piece of one today off Ynoa or the bullpen. Though that pen has been markedly better over the last couple weeks (1.69 ERA over the past week – best in baseball).
Devers is someone I’d like to include in my Red Sox’ stack though a GPP only play today.
Just for kicks, keep an eye out for how Justin Turner does against Lester today as he’s 0-for-20 in his career against him.
Xander Bogaerts (RH/BOS), Trevor Story (RH/COL), Manny Machado (RH/SDP), Didi Gregorius (LH/NYY), Willy Adames (RH/TBR)
Plenty of options at the position and I’ll kick things off with Bogaerts who is having one of the best all-around seasons in the game so far. He has slowed down a bit of late, hitting just .200 over his past 10.
Story in Coors against a lefty, ‘nuff said. Though Story’s numbers against lefties have declined a tad with a measly .156 ISO / 2.5% BB and just two homers against them. There has to be some correction coming his way though.
Machado hasn’t had the best production as a Padre this year and there’s a reason why rookie teammate Fernando Tatis Jr. is priced so much higher than him (DK: Tatis $5.5k, Machado $4.4k), but the savings might be worth it and hopefully the trip to Coors livens his bat up a bit.
Gregorius is the most reasonably priced Yankee today at just $4.3k on DK ($3.4k on FD). He has two hits in each of the three games he’s started in this year (hitting .429).
Adames is simply a punt play for us since we can consider him when the opposing starter is a lefty. Adames typically hits higher in the lineup (fourth or fifth) against left-handed pitchers.
EXPENSIVE: Charlie Blackmon + David Dahl (LH’s/COL), Hunter Renfroe+ Franmil Reyes (RH’s/SDP), Mookie Betts (RH/BOS), Aaron Hicks (SW/NYY)
Already mentioned how Blackmon and Dahl are going to be under-owned in Coors and they’re worth considering today. Dahl has yet to swat a homer off a lefty this season but has a respectable .367 wOBA against them and is among the league’s hitting leaders with a .324 average. Blackmon has a .239 ISO against lefties and is hitting .414 in Coors this year.
The power couple of San Diego have 37 homers between them already (18 for Renfroe, 19 for Franimal). Renfroe is just $3.8k on FD and is one of my favorite plays of the day.
Betts is going to explode soon. Hitting just .263 with 11 homers, it’s very possible he’s going to be one of the top three best hitters from this point on. Just $4.2k on FD and that’s very tempting today.
Hicks has been a machine as he’s hit three homers in his past six games and stole a base in his last start. He’s still catching up after missing the first six weeks of the season but starting to hit his stride. He can hit more than his stride in this matchup with Nova.
MIDRANGE: Avisail Garcia+ Tommy Pham (RH’s/TBR), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (RH/TOR), Nick Castellanos (RH/DET)
A couple of sneaky Rays’ bats against Skaggs today. Pham had a three-hit game against the A’s yesterday and the day before, smashed a 425-foot solo shot in the first inning. A new series with the Angels as they remain at home is a good place for him to continue mashing. Garcia hasn’t homered since June 4 but has been a steady contributor, currently boasting a .301 average.
Gurriel has two multi-hit games in his last three and has been the Jays’ best hitter over the last two weeks, typically hitting out of a primo lineup slot. On board with him again today against the O’s.
CHEAP: Chris Taylor (RH/LAD), Eloy Jimenez (RH/CHW)
Not much as far as cheap options yet until we see some surprises in the lineups but Taylor and Eloy are two guys worth considering. Taylor could be the leadoff man against Lester in the nightcap while Jimenez has been picking up the pace with 3 HR in his last three games. Eloy hasn’t been great against lefties though (just 1 of 9 homers and a .172 AVG).