MLB Hitting Coach – 5/9

EARLY SLATE

Ten total games today with the slates split evenly at five apiece. 

• WhiteSox (Banuelos – L) vs. Indians (Carrasco – R): CLE -210 (run total: 8.5), (light rain)

Banuelos isn’t as good as the guy who pitched back-to-back solid outings against the Orioles but also isn’t the trainwreck who served up 9 ER to Boston in his last start. Either way, the Indians are one of the better stacks on this five-game slate. I do like a stack including Lindor/Ramirez/Santana where Santana has a .422 wOBA against LHP and Banuelos is allowing a wOBA over .400 to righty bats (Santana is a switch-hitter). Not interested in the White Sox against Carrasco though we’ve seen crazier things happen.

• Angels (Pena– R) vs. Tigers (Carpenter – L): LINES TBD (rain)

There’s some rain happening in Detroit today so let’s see how this affects gameplay and viability of offensive players. Cahill has been hands-down brutal lately and among the league’s worst SPs (19 ER and 7 HR allowed in his last four starts) but he has to just be going through a bit of a trouble period because he’s a better pitcher than this. PENA STARTING INSTEAD OF CAHILL TODAY – SIMILAR SYNOPSIS HERE – I LIKE TIGERS BATS EVEN LESS NOW. He’s a sneaky GPP play at under 10% owned today against these Tigers who stink against RHP’s. I’d rather use some Angels here and you know Mike Trout is due as he’s hit just one homer in his last 15 games. Andrelton Simmons has a .244 ISO and .367 wOBA against lefties and catcher Kevan Smith is a lefty killer (.437 wOBA but inflated by a .471 BABIP – he did hit them last year though). 

• Marlins (Richards – R) vs. Cubs (Darvish – R):  CHC -200 (10.0)

Richards has a 5.79 xFIP and 4.10 ERA so it feels like a good spot for Cubs’ bats and I’m not opposed but I’d love to see that the wind is blowing out first. He’s got one of the league’s worst walk rates at 13% too. Anthony Rizzo would be the guy I’d want to build around as he’s been warming up. I’m guessing Darvish has a bounceback start here today.

• Giants (Rodriguez Holland– L) vs. Rockies (Freeland – L): COL -160 (10.5)

Here’s the game all will be targeting, mostly on Colorado’s side. Dereck Rodriguez had a great rookie season (lucky ass 2.81 ERA despite a 4.56 xFIP) and has allowed 23 runs (5.25 ERA) and 9 HR (2.25 HR/9) in seven starts. He may be heading back down to Triple-A soon if he doesn’t turn it around. All those Rockies lefties are in play but we can only play four on FD so it’s tough to determine how to mix them up with those lefties Charlie Blackmon /Raimel Tapia / Daniel Murphy/ David Dahl and the two big power righties (Arenado/Story). D-Rod has been equally bad against lefties and righties so I’m thinking you’ll definitely want to include Arenado in your stacks. Freeland hasn’t been good either (5.90 ERA / 1.82 HR/9) and has a 7.94 ERA at home – a far cry from last season’s domination. But I could see a decent outing here with the Giants absolutely brutal against lefties (.257 wOBA is second-worst mark in league).

• Reds (Roark – R) vs. Athletics (Bassitt – R): OAK -145 (8.5)

Certainly don’t mind a sneaky A’s stack here against Roark who is a very ordinary pitcher. Many of these A’s are underpriced on both sites with Roark getting too much respect. On the other side, don’t just discount Reds’ bats on such a tiny slate despite the fact that Bassitt appears to be reborn. Threw gems against the Rangers and at the Blue Jays but came back down to earth a bit serving up two homers to the Pirates. I’d consider Puig, Senzel, Winker, Dietrich and Votto in a stack if you’re playing three lineups.

Core 4 for Cash: Arenado (COL), Fletcher (LAA), Rizzo (CHC), Heyward (CHC)

Chalk Stacks: Cubs

Sneaky Stacks: Angels, Indians

C – Tony Wolters (LH/COL), Buster Posey (RH/SFG), Roberto Perez (RH/CLE – GPP punt), Kevan Smith (RH/LAA)

1B – Carlos Santana (SW/CLE), Anthony Rizzo (LH/CHC), Daniel Murphy (LH/COL), Albert Pujols (RH/LAA)

2B – Ryan McMahon (LH/COL), Derek Dietrich (LH/CIN)

3B – Jose Ramirez (SW/CLE), Nolan Arenado (RH/COL), Evan Longoria (RH/SFG), David Fletcher (RH/LAA)

SS – Francisco Lindor (SW/CLE), Andrelton Simmons (RH/LAA), Trevor Story (RH/COL)

OF – Charlie Blackmon (LH/COL), Raimel Tapia (LH/COL), David Dahl (LH/COL), Mike Trout (RH/LAA), Jason Heyward (LH/CHC), Mac Williamson (RH/SFG), Kevin Pillar (RH/SFG), Jesse Winker (LH/CIN), Yasiel Puig (RH/CIN), Khris Davis (RH/OAK), Skye Bolt (LH/OAK)

MAIN SLATE

• Mariners (M. Leake – R) vs. Yankees (J. Happ – L): NYY -180 (9.0)

Yankees are slowly getting their lineup back and it’s likely Aaron Hicks is back this weekend. Hopefully Giancarlo Stanton to follow later this month. As for this matchup, it’s a good one against Leake who is serving up a career-high 2.45 HR/9 – nearly 2.5x his career mark. His walk rate of 5% is still intact though and I’d expect a bit of correction. But he’s just not that great of a pitcher and I like some of these bats, particularly Voit and LeMahieu. On the other side, it’s been a disappointing season for Happ who has already allowed eight homers to right-handed bats. These Mariners are a top-10 offense against lefties (.208 ISO) with a very good top of the lineup against them (Mitch Haniger – Tim Beckham – Edwin Encarnacion – Domingo Santana). You might even try rookie Braden Bishop if you need some salary cap savings.

• Pirates (J. Musgrove – R) vs. Cardinals (M. Wacha – R): STL -145 (8.5)

Two different animals here as I’m a big fan of Musgrove and despise Wacha as a pitcher. Musgrove’s regression was inevitable as he was virtually unhittable over his first six starts before allowing 5 ER in 2.2 IP against the A’s in his last start. These Cards offense are usually not one to mess with but Musgrove is very good. And he’s allowed just one home run on the season. Wacha has the league’s second-worst walk rate (14.8%) but could luck into a good game since these Pirates aren’t a very intimidating offense and opposing teams often struggle in this ballpark. It may just be a wash where we don’t use Wacha and we don’t stack Pirates bats either. Same thing on the other side with Cards bats and Musgrove.

• Rangers (M. Minor – L) vs.  Astros (W. Miley – L): HOU -165 (9.0)

Minor has been truly electric and quite the workhorse. He started off the season with a start where he allowed six runs in 4.2 innings and since then has gone at least seven innings in five of his last six starts (including 8.0 IP in his latest). He’s got 22 strikeouts in his last two starts but runs into one of the league’s best offenses as the Astros boast the highest wOBA (.365) against lefties among American League teams. The Astros are usually a good bet and there’s always a chance that Minor poops himself in any single start, but I’d look at other offenses today. On the other end, I’ve got respect for Wade Miley who boasts a 2.08 ERA at home and a miniscule 5.5% BB rate. He works it with finesse since he doesn’t have much going on in the strikeout department (14%). Not to mention, the Rangers are middle of the pack offensively against southpaws as many of their best hitters are lefty bats (Gallo, Mazara, Choo). Though Elvis Andrus is crushing lefties (.433 wOBA) and swiped two bags yesterday. Veteran Hunter Pence has been sneaky good this season but oddly has been better against RHP (.448 wOBA) than LHP (.366) but still solid against both.

• Braves (M. Soroka – R) vs. Dbacks (L. Weaver – R): ATL -125 (8.0)

A battle between two decent starting pitchers. We weren’t able to say that about Weaver last year, but so far this year he’s been superb. He’s cut down on homers allowed and ranks top-20 among SPs in both strikeout rate and walk rate. The one thing is that Weaver is giving up crazy hard contact as his 45.7% rate ranks among the top-10 highest in baseball. I’d consider Freddie Freeman / Ronald Acuna / Nick Markakis as a mini stack against him but this ballpark with the humidor does mute offenses somewhat. If I were building 150 lineups I’d have some Dbacks’ exposure but I don’t think I can do it only building a few lineups here because Soroka is the Real Deal Holyfield. He’s the priciest pitcher on FD and actually a bargain on DK (priced behind Hill, Minor and Corbin).

• Nationals (P. Corbin– L) vs. Dodgers (R. Hill – L): LAD -135 (7.5)

A battle of two really good starting pitchers but anything can happen in one game and on a five-game slate and we need to be open to all possibilities as we have to have a different mindset for DFS than we do seasonal fantasy. Patrick Corbin has served up 15 runs and 11 walks in 31 innings against righties and the Dodgers have a few of them who can do damage. One is Justin Turner who hit three homers on Tuesday night (12-for-29 lifetime vs. Corbin) and another is David Freese who is usually in the lineup against lefties. On the other side, I’d consider some of these righty bats including Anthony Rendon (.533 ISO vs LHP), Howie Kendrick (.381 wOBA) and either of the catchers (Kurt Suzuki– .750 ISO but only 8 PA vs. LHP and Yan Gomes 25% BB and .561 wOBA against lefties).

Core 4 for Cash: LeMahieu/ Voit (NYY), Haniger (SEA), Gomes (WAS)

Chalk Stack: Yankees

Sneaky Stacks: Nationals, Pirates

C – Yan Gomes (RH/WAS), Gary Sanchez (RH/NYY), Brian McCann (LH/ATL), Tom Murphy (RH/SEA)

1B – Luke Voit (RH/NYY), Freddie Freeman (LH/ATL), Edwin Encarnacion (RH/SEA)

2B – Howie Kendrick (RH/WAS – he’s 3B on DK), Adam Frazier (LH/PIT), DJ LeMahieu (RH/NYY), Brian Dozier (RH/WAS)

3B – Anthony Rendon (RH/WAS – GPP), Justin Turner (RH/LAD), David Freese (RH/LAD), Ryon Healy (RH/SEA)

SS – Elvis Andrus (RH/TEX), Gleyber Torres (RH/NYY), Tim Beckhasm (RH/SEA)

OF – Ronald Acuna (RH/ATL), Chris Taylor (RH/LAD – punt), Mitch Haniger/Domingo Santana (RH’s/SEA), Gregory Polanco (LH/PIT), Starling Marte (RH/PIT), Hunter Pence (RH/TEX), Nick Markakis (LH/ATL), George Springer (RH/HOU), Brett Gardner (LH/NYY), Delino DeShields (RH/TEX)