Chalk will be TEX vs. PIT as well as MLW lefties. Anything else is contrarian. Plenty of solid pitchers on this slate (Flaherty, Eickhoff, Morton, Ray, Woodruff – that’s 5 of 8) so if you’re stacking against any of them, you’ll likely be different from the field. In cash, I’d load up on Rangers lefties and mix in Brewers and Pirates. Phillies against Flaherty is my sneaky mini stack of this slate and the one pitcher I won’t stack against here is Charlie Morton. I’d lean Yelich over Gallo as my key play today in cash.
C – Mike Zunino (RH/TBR), J.T. Realmuto (RH/PHI), Elias Diaz (RH/PIT)
1B – J
esus Aguilar (RH/MLW), Eric Thames (LH/MLW), Josh Bell (SW/PIT), Rhys Hoskins (RH/PHI)
2B – Mike Moustakas (LH/MLW), Adam Frazier (LH/PIT), Rougned Odor(LH/TEX)
3B – Travis Shaw (LH/MLW), Jung Ho Kang (RH/PIT), Matt Carpenter (LH/STL)
SS – Elvis Andrus (RH/TEX), Willy Adames (RH/TBR), Kevin Newman (RH/PIT)
OF – PIT (Gregory Polanco – LH, Starling Marte – RH, Melky Cabrera – SW), TEX (Joey Gallo/ Shin Soo Choo/ Nomar Mazara– LH’s – in that order), Christian Yelich (LH/MLW), Tommy Pham (RH/TBR), Avisail Garcia (RH/TBR), Jose Martinez (RH/STL), Bryce Harper (LH/PHI)
Your typical Wednesday: a split slate with nine games in the main and four early. In the main slate, three teams are monster favorites over their opponents. Expensive offenses and tough to stack: Red Sox (-290) visiting the Orioles, Astros (-230) home to the Royals and the Cubs (-230) in bad weather hosting the Marlins. That’s Sale vs. Cashner, Peacock vs. Lopez and Hendricks vs. Urena. We have Coors Field again with Jon Gray toeing the rubber for the Rockies and lefty Derek Holland making his return from the rotation off the IL. Avoiding Rockies who crush lefties (Arenado/Story) is tough on any slate, but they’re expensive enough to make you think.
The Twins play their second game of three in Rogers Centre against the Blue Jays (Gibson vs. Thornton) with a 9.0 combined Vegas total. Certainly don’t mind these Twins as a contrarian stack today against the rookie right-hander. The Angels-Tigers battle features two lefties (Skaggs, Boyd) so we won’t see much action in this game outside of contrarians taking a shot in GPPs. The late game is a tough one too with very few utilizing Braves (vs. Kershaw) but some will take shots with Dodgers against Foltynewicz who served up eight hits but didn’t last five innings in his second start of the season of the IL.
Chalky Stacks: BOS, HOU, COL, CHC
Contrarian Stacks: MIN, DET, LAD, OAK
My Favorite Stacks: COL, BOS, LAD
Sneaky Game Stack: Nothing particularly sneaky
DK Value Stack: TOR
Core 4 for Cash: Williamson SFG), Arenado (COL), Rosario (MIN), Rizzo (CHC)
Curt Casali (RH/CIN), Sandy Leon (LH/BOS), Danny Jansen (RH/TOR)
Very little to be excited about at the position so best to punt today. Willson Contreras is clearly the best option but he’s nearly $5,000 on DK and that’s difficult to stomach with all of the expensive options today. We’ll likely see many go with Casali in the RvL matchup against veteran southpaw Brett Anderson. The problem is (as we saw yesterday), that coliseum in Oaktown is where opposing offenses go to die. Leon is one of the worst hitters in baseball but every dog has his day and the combo of Cashner plus a gawd-awful pen puts him in consideration. Could be part of your wrap-around stack. Jansen has been a pure bust but I assure you he will get it going eventually. Kyle Gibson is a different animal on the road (read: worse) and he’s only $2,700 on DK.
CASH: Mitch Moreland (LH/BOS), Anthony Rizzo (LH/CHC), C.J. Cron (RH/MIN)
Moreland crushed a bomb yesterday and is usually in a primo lineup spot for the Red Sox (3rdor 4th) when a righty is on the mound. The weather isn’t great in Wrigley but that shouldn’t stop Rizzo from potentially cranking one out of the park. Urena has already allowed 4 HR and 10 BB to lefty bats in 22 IP against them this season. Cron is my sneaky guy as we pick on rookie Thornton coming off a hot start. Rogers Centre is a great hitters’ park and the Twins truly mash. He’s only $2,800 on FD.
GPP: Mark Reynolds(RH/COL), Brandon Belt (LH/SFG), Max Muncy (LH/LAD)
Belt should probably be listed with the cash guys but we’ve got to respect Jon Gray a tad. That said, Belt has just as good of a chance as any 1B to go deep, but the weather isn’t ideal. Reynolds should get the start with a lefty on the mound (Holland) and he’s a homer or strikeout kind of guy. Muncy is another alternative with his power (.444 ISO vs RHP) and likely won’t be highly owned with folks respecting Folty.
CASH: Jose Altuve (RH/HOU), Joe Panik (LH/SFG)
Altuve is just far too cheap on DK ($4,400) and is in play for cash each and every day. Note that Royals’ starter Jorge Lopez has an impressive .293 wOBA against RHH’s so we’re more so looking to target the lefty bats there (.407 wOBA-against). Panik may not hit more than a handful more homers this season but he leads off against RHP’s and he’s in Coors.
GPP: Michael Chavis (RH/BOS), Jurickson Profar (SW/OAK)
Second base isn’t deep today. Chavis the rookie has been red hot and yesterday was the first time in a while he didn’t hit the scoreboard. Probably didn’t like hitting seventh. Profar has warmed up again and went deep during Fiers’ no-hitter last night. I really don’t mind him at cheap salary, though he’s much preferred against southpaws.
CASH: Nolan Arenado (RH/COL), Rafael Devers (LH/BOS), Alex Bregman (RH/HOU)
Surprise, surprise – I’ve listed three big bats on teams that are huge favorites today. Arenado against a lefty truly needs no analysis, Devers in Baltimore’s park is a great matchup and Bregman continues to mash, hitting another bomb yesterday. Speaking of Devers, he’s shown more plate patience this year, reducing his strikeout rate to 16% (25% last year) and improving his walk rate to 11% (8% last year).
GPP: Eugenio Suarez (RH/CIN), Justin Turner (RH/LAD), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (RH/TOR)
Have Suarez listed as a GPP play even though he’s facing his preferred lefties and that’s only because Anderson doesn’t give up a ton of homers and because I respect A’s pitchers at home usually. Turner hit his first homer earlier this week and then rewarded those few who played last night with 3 HR and 6 RBI. Guerrero is finally going yard! You heard it here first!
CASH: Trevor Story (RH/COL), Carlos Correa (RH/HOU), Xander Bogaerts (RH/BOS)
Another easy way out here with me listing the COL, HOU and BOS guys as the top options. Pardon the expression but gun to head, give me Coors Story vs. the lefty even if the weather is poor. Playing these guys might be stack-dependent though. No issues with Correa (.350/.625/1.011 in his last 10) if you’re rocking the Astros stack or Bogaerts (3 HR in his last four) with Boston stacks.
GPP: Corey Seager (LH/LAD), Jose Iglesias or Jose Peraza (RH’s/CIN)
Not many great affordable options but I’d consider Seager today as his bat slowly starts to awaken. After all, this is a dude who is a career .300 hitter. One of the Reds guys can work as a punt possibly. Peraza had the day off yesterday and should be in the lineup while Iglesias is on a tear, averaging over 10 DKP over his last 10 games.
CASH: Cody Bellinger (LH/LAD), Eddie Rosario (LH/MIN), Martinez/Betts (RHH’s/BOS), Max Kepler (LH/MIN), Michael Brantley (LH/HOU), Josh Reddick (LH/HOU), Nelson Cruz (RH/MIN)
You can easily see what I like here: Astros’ lefties, Twins and Red Sox. It’s all a matter of how you construct your teams today but I definitely like the idea of pairing guys from the same team who hit close to another in the lineup (Betts/JDM/Beni, Brantley/Reddick, Rosario/Cruz). The one thing I’ll note is don’t discount Andrew Benintendi and ignore him completely just because he looked awful at the plate and went 0-for-4 yesterday. He always seems to do his most damage this season after a bad game. One of Cruz or Rosario will be going deep today too.
GPP: Nick Castellanos (RH/DET), Jason Heyward (LH/CHC), Ian Desmond (RH/COL), Nick Senzel (RH/CIN), Alex Verdugo (LH/LAD)
A few different options but one of these is not like the other. What I mean is that Desmond is simply not a good hitter anymore. But we’re talking Coors Desmond against a lefty today. I haven’t played Heyward much but against a guy susceptible to lefty power, I’ve got to consider it. Castellanos and Verdugo are two guys who won’t see much ownership but should be on our radars today. Casty is a quiet lefty-killer and he’ll face lefty Tyler Skaggs.
PUNTS: Marwin Gonzalez (SW/MIN), Socrates Brito (LH/TOR), Billy McKinney (LH/TOR), Mac Williamson (RH/SFG)
The most popular punt of the day is Mac Dubs of the Giants whose salary was not increased on DK (just $3,400) since it was locked in before his big game 2019 debut (2-for-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI). Williamson is 28 and a career minor-leaguer but has always hit for power in the minors and was hitting .378 with 9 HR in 23 games prior to this promotion. Marwin and these Blue Jays bottom-of-order guys will pale in comparison ownership-wise to Williamson who will be fairly chalky but there’s a bit of allure here on a slate where you almost know where most DFS players will lean. Playing two of these guys unfortunately sucks up 2 of your 3 OF spots on DK but you can certainly build with expensive guys elsewhere if you employ this strategy today.