We have 13 games on the slate today because the Cardinals and Cubs are playing a day game and the Astros and Angels are off as they head to Monterrey, Mexico for a two-game weekend series. Coors Field is on the agenda today with Robbie Ray and the Diamondbacks visiting. This game has the usual double-digit Vegas total (11.0) and it’ll be lefty Tyler Anderson toeing the rubber for the Rockies which means we’ll see some priced up, chalky Dbacks today.
Other stacks with double-digit ownership should be Red Sox (home against Reynaldo Lopez), Rangers against rookie Tyler Thornton (should the weather hold up) and of course Rays as those hot bats visit Baltimore to take on starting pitcher Dan Straily. We’ll also see the season debut of the Giants’ 2014 first-round draft pick Tyler Beede who is currently crushing it in Triple-A (1.99 ERA, 13.5 K/9, 22.2 IP). The Red Sox/White Sox matchup will be particularly interesting since Reynaldo is coming off that 14-strikeout performance. But that was against a Tigers squad that’s fourth in K’s against RHP (27%) compared to these patient Red Sox who rank 25th (20.5%).
Chalky Stacks: Diamondbacks/Rockies, Rays, Red Sox, Rangers
Contrarian Stacks: Braves, Dodgers, Indians, Yankees, Reds
My Favorite Stacks: Rays, Diamondbacks, Rangers
Sneaky Game Stack: Nationals/Phillies
DK Value Stack: Tigers
CASH: J.T. Realmuto (RH/PHI),
Elias Diaz (RH/PIT), Drew Butera (RH/COL)
GPP: Michael Perez (LH/ TBR) or Mike Zunino (RH/ TBR), James McCann (RH/CHW)
CHEAP: Roberto Perez (RH/CLE), Tucker Barnhart (RH/CIN)
Diaz is my gut play at catcher if the Pirates and A’s don’t get in trouble with Mother Nature. He’ll get some run with Cervelli temporarily sidelined and he crushed southpaws last season (.395 wOBA, 42% HH). Cervelli healthy so scratch Diaz and consider Cervelli.
Butera is 35 and has very little left in the tank but is the backup catcher to Wolters with Iannetta on the IL. He may get the start with a lefty on the mound.
McCann is on a crazy run and needs to be considered even against Chris Sale. He is hitting .366 with 3 HR over the past 10 games.
Best Value: Nate Lowe(LH/TBR)
CASH: Christian Walker (RH/ARI) – expensive, Ji-Man Choi (LH/TBR) – midrange, Jesus Aguilar (RH/MLW) – cheap
GPP: Joey Votto (LH/CIN), Freddie Freeman (LH/ATL)
To the windowwwws, to the walllls. Get Lowe, Get Lowe, Get Lowe. There will be many slates where we can play both Nate and Brandon, especially with homer-prone RHP’s on the mound. He’s $4000 on DK and $2400 on FD.
NO one in MLB is hitting the ball harder than Walker these days. His 67% hard-hit rate tops masher Joey Gallo’s. Walker in Coors is a dream, but you’ll have to pay up.
You know I’ve been recommending my boy Choi for this week’s schedule with all these righties up. In the series with the Royals, he dropped 16, 0 and 16 DKP including a homer. Love this matchup for him.
Best Value: Wilmer Flores (RH/ARI) – FD
CASH: Ketel Marte (SW/ARI) – expensive DK, Brandon Lowe (LH/TBR) – midrange, Rougned Odor (LH/TEX) – cheap
GPP: Kike Hernandez (RH/LAD), Michael Chavis (RH/BOS)
PUNT: Starlin Castro (RH/MIA)
Flores is remarkably cheap on FD ($3000) even though he’s at Coors but it’s because he’s had a horrendous first five weeks. Flores against a lefty has always been a ‘thing’ so why not take the value at Coors?
Marte is the guy to spend up for as he always crushes lefties (.392 wOBA, 143 wRC+ this season). He’s the most expensive 2B on DraftKings by a hefty margin which makes him tough to fit in cash without stacking. Though he and Christian Walker are probably the best plays here for the Dbacks not considering salary. Marte is OF on FanDuel.
Lowe was the difference-maker in Wednesday’s game with the Royals (a two-run bomb) but should those really count when it’s against that slob Wily Peralta? The matchup in Baltimore against Straily is heavenly for these Rays’ southpaws.
Castro has been slumping of late (0 for his last 12) but has faced Gausman 38 times. He’s never walked against him and had 11 hits (1 HR) and 10 strikeouts against him. Just a DK punt to consider if you’re a little short on Odor.
BEST VALUES: Manny Machado (RH/SDP) – DK, Nick Senzel (RH/CIN) – DK ONLY
CASH: Nolan Arenado (RH/COL), Howie Kendrick (RH/WAS)
GPP: Eduardo Escobar (SW/ARI), Justin Turner (RH/LAD), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (RH/TOR)
CHEAP: Jeimer Candelario (SW/DET), Jung Ho Kang (RH/PIT)
Crazy to see Machado at this price point ($3600 DK) and almost crazier to recommend him against the Great Kershaw. But it’s been much too smooth sailing for Kersh through his first couple starts so don’t be surprised to see some craziness here. Not saying Kershaw will get pummeled (and I surely hope not) but he could give up a couple of runs.
Welcome back to the majors, Nick Senzel! He should be making his season debut. A very prized prospect who should have a fantastic career as a hitter. Available on DK only today. Will get chalky as the day goes on and once we finally see that Reds lineup.
Turner finally hit his first home run of the season and hopefully that’s the start of a little hot streak for him. Against lefty Lauer might be a good place for his second.
Guerrero is still looking for his first career blast. Minor has been electric of late, including that 13-K effort in his last outing. Wouldn’t be shocked to see Minor as the guy in the history books as the guy who gave up Guerrero’s first bomb.
I pointed out how badly Candelario stinks this season and how he still has not homered this season. He does continuously get the opportunity for five at-bats per game since he leads off quite often. Not sure why these Tigers are so cheap against on-again, off-again youngster Jorge Lopez.
CASH: Trevor Story (RH/COL), Jose Peraza (RH/CIN)
GPP: Nick Ahmed (RH/ARI), Xander Bogaerts (RH/BOS)
CHEAP: Gordon Beckham (RH/DET)
By far, the weakest of the positions today. Even more so than catcher. Guys like Anderson, Mondesi and Polanco don’t have the best matchups. Elvis Andrusis expensive but definitely still in play. Ahmed isn’t a horrible option since he’s only $3500 on FD, but let’s first make sure he’s in the lineup.
Beckham is your punt on DK if you need it. A very interesting 47 PA for the 32-year-old who has a wicked and unsustainable 74% hard-hit rate. A viable play against Jorge Lopez who is allowing a 42.6% hard-hit rate to righty bats.
BEST VALUES: J.D. Martinez (RH/BOS) – Only $4400 on DK!, Ian Desmond (RH/COL) – $3800 DK
EXPENSIVE: Mookie Betts (RH/BOS), Ketel Marte (SW/ARI – FD only), Jarrod Dyson / Adam Jones (RH’s/ARI), Tommy Pham (RH/TBR), Shin Soo Choo (LH/TEX), Cody Bellinger (LH/LAD)
MIDRANGE: Nomar Mazara (LH/TEX), Jesse Winker (LH/CIN), Ryan Braun (RH/MIL), Nick Markakis (LH/ATL), Andrew Benintendi (LH/BOS), Avisail Garcia (RH/TBR)
CHEAP: Bryan Reynolds (SW/PIT), Desmond, Manuel Margot (RH/SDP), Melky Cabrera (SW/PIT), Brandon Nimmo (LH/NYM),
Pretty much what you’d expect here based on the stacks most will like (BOS, ARI, COL, TBR). Martinez and Desmond are my favorite values on DK. Yes, Desmond stinks and is losing playing time to Tapia. But the veteran still has some pop in that bat and we’ve used him at home against lefty pitchers ever since he arrived in Colorado a couple years ago.
Martinez (BOS) is hitting over .300 on the season but just four homers so far. He’s an absolutely devastating force against southpaws (.619 ISO!) but a weak .057 ISO against RHP. Note that JDM’s career ISO against righties is .230 and the last two seasons it was .244 and .351. The homers are coming and we hope it starts today.
Braun finally woke up after a prolonged slump and crushed a bomb yesterday. Hopefully that gets back on track the man who hit lefties harder than anyone last season.
Pirates’ rookie Reynolds is currently outplaying fellow rookie Cole Tucker, hitting over .400 in a small sample of 40 plate appearances. He’s a switch-hitter who may work out for us as a cheap play on FanDuel should the weather work out in Pittsburgh.