A very straightforward four-gamer with most of the action on the SEA-TEX game where a 11.5-point combined Vegas total looms. We should expect many more runs than the disappointing nine we saw yesterday with Lance Lynn throwing an 11-K gem and Tommy Milone pitching well. Next up chalk-wise after the Mariners and Rangers would be the A’s against overachieving righty Jefry Rodriguez followed by the Cardinals and then probably the Royals against Wacha. Those two play a double-header so make sure you’re mindful of who is in the lineup. I didn’t list the Goldy-DeJong-Ozuna trio below only because Brad Keller is a groundballer who doesn’t serve up many homers but he hasn’t been great this year and could certainly get dinked and dunked upon.
C – Omar Narvaez (LH/SEA)
1B – Daniel Vogelbach (LH/SEA), Matt Olson (LH/OAK), Logan Forsythe (RH/TEX)
2B – Nicky Lopez (LH/KCR), Kolten Wong (LH/STL), Whit Merrifield (RH/KCR)
3B – Matt Carpenter (LH/STL), Asdrubal Cabrera (SW/TEX), Matt Chapman (RH/OAK)
SS – Francisco Lindor (SW/CLE), Adalberto Mondesi (SW/KCR)
OF – Mallex Smith (LH/SEA) + Mitch Haniger (RH/SEA), Joey Gallo (LH/TEX) + Hunter Pence (RH/TEX), Alex Gordon (LH/KCR), Jesse Winker (LH/CIN), Jose Martinez (RH/STL)
Very much dig this 10-game slate on DK today (11 on FD where the second of the KCR-STL doubleheader will count). The wind blowing out at 13-15 mph to right field at Wrigley will make the Cubs (and to some extent, the Phillies) very much in play. It’ll be Phillies’ rookie Cole Irvin (L) making his third career start and veteran southpaw Cole Hamels for the Cubs. You should be able to find a viable cash game core between this game, Yankees’ and Astros’ bats. The Yankees, Astros, Cubs, Cardinals (FD only) and Red Sox are the only teams projected for five-plus runs (NYY, HOU over 6.0).
COL-PIT has a storm heading that way later in the game but shouldn’t affect things much in the earlier innings. For the Pirates, it’s a studly Montana DuRapau opening followed by Nick Kingham (18 ER allowed in 20.2 IP).
Very few will target hitters from the Scherzer-deGrom showdown in the Big Apple. The Giants won’t see much ownership either against curveball specialist Max Fried. Neither will Rays’ bats against Rich Hill coming off a 10-strikeout game.
Angels’ righty Matt Harvey threw his best outing of the season last time out, but still allowed two runs and four walks. Hopefully it keeps these Twins’ bats a bit under the radar with these other big run totals as chalk. The Twins have scored more runs (273) than any other team in the majors this season.
For those playing FanDuel, you’ll certainly want to consider some Cardinals’ bats against Homer Bailey in the second of the doubleheader and could get sneaky with some Royals against Adam Wainwright, though we should typically pick on Waino less when he’s at home.
Chalky Stacks: Cubs, Yankees, Astros….secondary: Red Sox, Cardinals (FD only)
Lower Percentage/Sneaky Stacks: Phillies, Twins, Rockies, Blue Jays
My Favorite Stacks: Cubs, Yankees, Twins, Rockies
Core 4 for Cash:
- DK: Morales (NYY) + Sanchez (NYY) + Bryant (CHC) + Baez (CHC)
- FD: Morales (NYY) + Almora (CHC) + Baez (CHC) + Guerrero Jr. (TOR)
Gary Sanchez (RH/NYY), Willson Contreras (RH/CHC), Pedro Severino (RH/BAL), Robinson Chirinos (RH/HOU)
Sanchez hit his 14thhomer of the season yesterday at over 20% ownership as folks weren’t afraid to spend up for the guy hitting third with the game in Baltimore. Another good matchup today against Dan Straily. Contreras is the only other catcher averaging less fantasy points per game than Sanchez and with the wind blowing out, he makes a second case for us paying up at the catcher position today. Chirinos and Severino are mid-range options in good matchups as well. Severino isn’t a particularly impactful hitter, but he has been hitting lefties well this season (.448 wOBA, .370 ISO). Punting the position all the way down on DK might be tough today with no Maldonado or Mathis on the slate so we might look to Luke Maile if he’s in the lineup and perhaps we get a lucky 7 DKP.
CASH: Rhys Hoskins (RH/PHI), Luke Voit (RH/NYY) or Kendrys Morales (SW/NYY), Paul Goldschmidt FD only
Hoskins should see the highest ownership among first basemen as a stand-alone with the wind blowing out but you’ll also see some Phillies’ stacks. Though Hoskins has always hit for more power against righties (.292 ISO vs RHP, .204 vs LHP), he’s still worth considering for a main lineup. The Yankees bats are in play and let’s hope Kendrys is actually in the lineup today (4-for-14, 2 HR vs. Straily).
GPP: Justin Smoak (LH/TOR), Max Muncy (LH/LAD, 1B/2B on DK), Freddie Freeman (LH/ATL), C.J. Cron (RH/MIN)
Wrote about Smoak in my ‘From the Gut’ piece today over on the seasonal site, FantasyGuru. He’s been among the league walk leaders this month (25.7% – first among all qualified) and has been hitting the ball at a 56% hard-hit rate yet has just 1 HR with a .137 BABIP (.150 AVG). Perfect spot for him to start to get going against Porcello today. Muncy is red hot and though I have much respect for Yonny Chirinos, he does have one of the highest flyball rates in baseball (38% is top 25) and is allowing 1.53 HR/9. Cron I prefer against lefties (.516 ISO vs LHP, .200 vs RHP) but if I’m running a Twins stack, I’ll want to include him today.
Luis Arraez (LH/MIN), Ryan McMahon (LH/COL), David Bote DK only (3B on FD), Muncy DK only, Torres DK only, Nicky Lopez FD only, Michael Chavis (RH/BOS)
Not the prettiest mix today as the position is super shallow again. I’d consider Gleyber or Muncy on DK as they aren’t eligible on FD at 2B. Otherwise, I’m looking at red-hot rookie Arraez who I recommended yesterday as a cheap punt (first career homer late in the game). He’s hitting .583 with at least one hit in each of his first four MLB games. McMahon is in play with Kingham coming into the game and perhaps he’ll be under 5% today. Bote on DK because the wind is blowing out and he’s got some power. We correctly faded Chavis yesterday but he’s in the mix with a Red Sox’ stack against Aaron Sanchez today.
CASH: Kris Bryant (RH/CHC), Gio Urshela (RH/NYY), Alex Bregman (RH/HOU), Matt Carpenter FD only
Bryant and Urshela should be our two chalkiest options with many looking at Carpenter on FD. Bregman is among the league leaders with 14 homers on the young season and has hit four of those over the last 10. White Sox’ pitcher Ivan Nova is allowing 1.90 HR/9 and has a horrendous 7.42 ERA.
GPP: Vlad Guerrero Jr (RH/TOR), Rafael Devers (LH/BOS), Nolan Arenado (RH/COL), David Fletcher (RH/LAA)
A few sneaky guys here including Guerrero who should go under-owned on a slate with so many options at the position. Devers has a .390 wOBA against righties and recently brought his average up to .320. He has gone deep in back to back games and has hit five this month after not hitting a homer in March or April. Arenado is sneaky today as are his teammates. Fletcher against lefties is usually the money play (.390 wOBA, double the ISO than against righties) and he’s one of the only Angels I’d consider against stud lefty Martin Perez. That’s only because Fletcher is cheap and should be leading off.
CASH: Javier Baez (RH/CHC), Gleyber Torres (RH/NYY), Carlos Correa (RH/HOU)
Baez is your top play of the day since I’m expecting him to hit one of the many homers in this game today. Double-dong potential here but note that he missed two straight starts with a minor heel injury (but pinch-hit yesterday – a walk-off RBI, so he’s fine). Torres will also be chalky against Straily who has allowed 29 runs in 30.2 innings this season and has a 11.78 ERA at home. Correa can be a one-off but more aptly to be included on Astros’ stacks.
GPP: Trevor Story (RH/COL), Jean Segura (RH/PHI), punt: Zack Cozart DK (RH/LAA, 3B on FD)
Story went deep yesterday and should feast against Kingham today as well. Segura as part of your Phillies’ stacks. Cozart the super punt at SS on DK for just $2100 if he’s in the lineup.
EXPENSIVE: Charlie Blackmon (LH/COL) – GPP, Aaron Hicks (RH/NYY), Mike Trout (RH/LAA), Cody Bellinger (LH/LAD), Betts/Martinez (RHH’s/BOS), Michael Brantley (LH/CLE)
Favorite expensive outfielders today for cash games are Hicks and Brantley in these high totals and great matchups. Blackmon won’t see much ownership because of price and the fact that they’re on the road with so many games on the slate but he’s hitting .341 with a 1.181 OPS and 5 HR over his last 10. He’s hit safely in 29 of his last 32 games. Trout swatted two bombs yesterday but the matchup against Perez is a bit tougher today.
MIDRANGE: Albert Almora (RH/CHC) – CASH, Bryce Harper (LH/PHI) + Andrew McCutchen (RH/PHI), Eddie Rosario (LH/MIN), Marcell Ozuna (RH/STL – FD only), Josh Reddick (LH/HOU)
Almora and Cutch will be over 20% owned today in Wrigley, both as probably the leadoff guys. Neither guys hit for much power but are still fine cash plays. Rosario came through for us again yesterday with a couple hits and a stolen base and today we’re looking for the home run. If George Springer is out today, Reddick might be the leadoff man again and he owes us a dinger no doubt.
CHEAP: Marwin Gonzalez (SW/MIN, also OF on DK, 3B only on FD), Dexter Fowler (LH/STL) – FD only, David Fletcher on DK, Randal Grichuk (RH/TOR), Christin Stewart (LH/DET)
Hope you’ve been aboard my Marwin recommendations over the past week. His DK salary is only now starting to catch up with his results and that price has oddly remained cheap despite dropping double-digit DKP in six of his last eight including 25 points last night. Fowler on FD against the righty Homer Bailey but not too entranced with that play as of now. Grichuk is cheap on DK and I don’t mind him against Porcello today. Stewart has a breakout right around the corner. He’s got solid pop in that bat and faces a Marlins’ pitcher susceptible to lefty power.