We have 10 games of MLB action for Monday. The Red Sox and Blue Jays square off at 1 PM for the only afternoon game and then we have an early 6PM start for the Indians and Athletics in Cleveland.
Neither of those games are involved in the main slate on either site, so we are left with 8 games to really discuss here. I’ll break down each matchup and then give you guys a short list of the hitters that stand out by position from that analysis.
We have had a lot of injuries thus far in MLB and a lot of prospects called up. Many of them are very cheap and some of them are even being slotted into prime lineup real estate. Mixing a few of these lower priced guys in when lineups come out is something we have to consider as a lot of the bats that profile the best today are not cheap.
New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles
JA Happ – Not a great start to the season for Happ. His K’s are down, his ERA and xFIP are both half a run higher than career averages. The big problem for him has been the HR ball with that HR/9 being above 2 so far this year when it hovers just above 1.14 for his career. He’s still incredibly tough on lefties, but righties do hit him well. He just pitched against the Orioles and it wasn’t that great. He gave up a couple homers in 5 innings of work against an offense that doesn’t really project that well.
Trey Mancini – Mancini is the best bat here, but his numbers are not spectacular. He has a 106 wRC+, so slightly above average with only a .330 wOBA and a .179 ISO score. Those aren’t great numbers, but they are by far the best on the team. Joey Rickard is the only other guy over a 100 wRC+ against lefties since 2016 and just barely. He lacks upside. No one else is over a 100 wRC+, a .320 wOBA, and the only guy over a .171 ISO is MArk Trumbo who is a shell of his best younger self.
Andrew Cashner – So the good news is that Cashner has pitched better than his career numbers show. The bad news is that still translates into a 4.61 xFIP this year with 1.49 HR/9. Normally tougher on righties and struggles with lefties. This year he’s actually been way worse to RHBs. Overall he’s not a good pitcher and the Yanks should get to him and that crappy bullpen.
Luke Voit – Top bat for the Yanks in this matchup. He owns a 134 wRC+ score with a .373 wOBA and a .234 ISO score. Very solid numbers.
Gary Sanchez – 125 wRC+ score is solid. .359 wOBA is ok, but the .264 ISO really stands out. He’s not cheap, but this is a good spot for him in a friendly HR park against a bad pitcher.
Others to consider:
Voit and Sanchez are the guys who stand out and are useable in any format. I like the idea of stacking Yankees today, but they do project to be chalky. Guys like Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks are the lefties that profile the best against Cashner’s career weaknesses. Gleyber Torres is the other righty I would consider to round out the five man DK stack. All three of these guys are above average with 100+ wRC+ scores, but none are elite enough for me to really be targeting outside of the stack.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
Patrick Corbin – The Mets do have a solid wRC+ score against lefties at 108 this season, but they also have the second highest K% against LHP. Corbin just dominated them over 8 innings with 11Ks and only one run on four hits and a walk. It was his most recent start and the Mets had no answer for him. Corbin owns left-handed bats and the Mets have a bunch of them near the top of that order. Righties are a tad above league average against him with a .319 wOBA and a slightly elevated slugging %. Corbin is having one of his best seasons with over 10 K per 9 and an xFIP of just 3.61.
Pete Alonso – Very small sample size, so I don’t want to overreact, but the guy has proven he can hit lefties. The 181 wRC+ score is on the back of a .434 wOBA and a monster .447 ISO score. Those would be better numbers than guys like Trout and JD Martinez have and those are two of the most feared hitters of the last few years in MLB. Now I don’t expect Alonso to settle long term with numbers this good, but you can’t knock the fact the guy should settle well above average against LHP.
Wilson Ramos – a 138 wRC+ score on the back of a .376 wOBA and a .222 ISO are some of the best numbers you will find on this slate or any slate for a catcher. On FD, you can definitely avoid him as your C/1B option, but on DK he’s viable alternative to a more expensive Sanchez. At only $3300 he has some GPP appeal for me. Remember Corbin is a beast, so I’m not trying to pick on him, but these two guys do stand out based on the numbers.
Drew Gagnon/Wilmer Font/ Bullpen – This one is likely to turn into a bullpen game for the Mets pitching staff. The two main guys likely to throw a couple innings listed are both sub par righties. The Nationals should feast on weak pitching here.
Juan Soto – Top bat for the NAtionals owns a 143 wRC+ score with a .388 wOBA and a .214 ISO. I love Soto today, but the price is a tad high.
Anthony Rendon – I know it’s likely a same handed matchup, but Rendon still a 127 wRC+ guy with a .369 wOBA and over a .200 ISO score in same handed spots. Given how weak the guys likely to throw some innings are, it’s a good place to look for positive upside out of him.
Trea Turner – Turner returned for the last series with the Cubs and he does have solid numbers at the MLB level against RHP. Easy spot, good matchup, and likely a big game from him today.
Adam Eaton – Love the top of this order as Eaton profiles well v. RHP too. All four of these guys make sense here today and while they should continue to be chalky, this lineup should also smash here.
Others: If you need a fifth to round out the stacks, you have guys like Brian Dozier, Howie Kendrick, and Victor Robles who make some sense. All of them are solid and I wouldn’t mind you using any of them as your fifth bat. In fact if you multi-enter I don’t think stacking the Nationals is crazy and different combos of the main guys with a few of these secondary ones sprinkled in makes a lot of sense.
Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies
Yu Darvish – Not going deep, but still racking up well over a K per inning. He’s allowed 3 runs or less over 5-6 innings in 5 of his last 6 games. Elite 11.8 K/9, but his BB/9 are way up near 7 this year and his HR/9 is up a tad too. His ERA is over 5, but the xFIP is half a run lower and he had some racky early starts. Not trying to pick on him, but a one off for HR power is warranted.
Rhys Hoskins – Hoskins is probably the #1 option to take him yard. 146 wRC+ for him against same handed pitchers with a .390 wOBA and a .294 ISO score. It’s likely HR or bust, but he’s discounted enough on DK to consider as a one off for differentiation in a GPP.
Bryce Harper – Same goes for Harper as I can see a HR, but could also see him striking out 2-3 times. Harper does have elite power (.252 ISO), a solid .382 wOBA since 2016 against RHP, and like Rhys he is relatively cheaper on DK where he makes more sense to throw in as a one off in a GPP.
Jake Arrieta – His numbers this year are slightly below average across the board. He’s not getting lit up, but isn’t shutting anyone down either. He is still extremely tough on RHBs, so avoid them. Both sides are +20 basis points above career averages, leaving lefties as good plays and righties as slightly below league average still.
Anthony Rizzo – The one truly elite lefty on this team to attack Arrieta with. Arrieta does a good job of keeping balls in the yard, so I’m not trying to go nuts here, but Rizzo does own a 143 wRC+ with a .389 wOBA and .243 ISO v. RHP. This is the matchup he likes.
Others: No one else really stands out here. Guys like Kyle Schwarber have elite power, but this is not a HR pitcher. Kris Bryant has been on fire, but Arrieta is tough on righties and keeps the ball in the park. Guys like Baez and Contreras are good players too, but again not the right split. I think they do get a few runs off Arrieta who hasn’t shut anyone down, but it won’t be a ton of runs.
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
Mike Minor – This one is tough as we have some good news and bad news here. His Ks are up this season, and he faces a team with the 7th highest K% v. LHP. His ERA is a sparkling 2.61, but the xFIP is a run and half higher at 4.24 and the Mariners also have the 7th highest wRC+ against lefties. Regression is due and this is a tough opponent, so like I said good and bad. HE does struggle more with righties although been better vs. both sides of the plate this year.
Edwin Encarnacion – Dude is on fire right now, going 8-for-11 over his last 3 games and he owns the best numbers on the team against lefties with a .360 wOBA, .215 ISO and a 125 wRC+.
Domingo Santana – .358 wOBA, .214 ISO score and a 121 wRC+ against lefties. Has always hit them well.
Mitch Haniger – .352 wOBA, .189 ISO and a 125 wRC+ are all very good. Plus he leads off in front of the big bats mentioned here with him. They have four above average guys against LHP to start the order and get a favorable park switch to Texas.
Tim Beckham – His numbers fall below the other three above him, but for a guy with SS eligibility they are still solid. Plus he tends to hit fourth behind the big bats mentioned and stacking that quartet is something I will be doing looking for the Minor regression to finally hit.
Mike Leake – Pedestrian as they come, but not a gas can that gets lit up often either. At best he’s more of an average pitcher. Usually tough on righties and below league average against lefties. So far lefties are about the same, but now righties are hitting him really well too. His Ks are down, walks also down though. His HR/9 is up big at 1.83 v. 1.11. He hasn’t been that good to be honest.
Joey Gallo – Normally Leake struggles with lefties, but keeps the ball in the yard. The HRs being up has me on Gallo as his .360 wOBA and elite .316 ISO score make him the #1 HR pick here.
Shin-Soo Choo – Underrated and under owned always. Solid ,358 wOBA with a .193 ISO. He’s not sexy, but he’s definitely in play.
Others: Rounding out a stack here in a high tota game, I would definitely include Nomar Mazara. Asdrubal Cabrera has some positional flexibility too and is a solid above average bat against RHP. The most interesting guy may be Willie Calhoun. The youngster is a top prospect and is finally starting to show why here. He’s been hitting in the #2 hole in a few recent games and has the right splits here. At $4500 on DK, he’s tougher to use. On FD though he’s only a $3K player and Calhoun on FD is a guy I have a decent amount of here today.
Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros
White Sox Bullpen game – Manny Banuelos was the scheduled starter, but he is on DL now. I assume we get a few different guys here against the red hot Astros offense. When you have a crappy bullpen like this and a lot of guys likely to throw it’s tough to analyze anything when at most it’s 1-2 ABs. Overall I expect weak pitchers to toe the rubber and the best way to play it is to stack Astros.
Alex Bregman – Elite #s whether a lefty or righty toe’s the rubber. One of the top plays at his position today.
Carlos Correa – Same thing to a slightly lesser extent as Bregman, but against a bad pitcher I’m in.
Josh Reddick – No springer opens up an OF spot for him and the guy is on fire right now with double digit fantasy points in 4 of the last 5 games. He’s cheapish compared to his teammates too, so I like him a lot in all formats today.
Note: Altuve is on the DL and Springer is listed as DTD and already ruled out for Monday.
Others: With no Springer and no Altuve you will have an easier time stacking them with some cheaper bats in the mix. Guys like Brantley and maybe a Marisnick, Gurriel, or White. Definitely a stackable spot and an easier stack to build around without high priced Springer and Altuve. This team is on a roll right now, so I’m sticking with them.
Peacock – Won’t go deep into the game, but he’s a solid pitcher with K upside. He does have severe splits. He owns righties, but has always been below average to LHBs. If you decide to attack him, I would avoid the stack, but lefties are cheap and interesting here.
Yoan Moncada – The best bat and best projection on the team. .341 wOBA with a .209 ISO score and a116 wRC+. Again, nothing special and not elite, but the best bat they have.
Others: Guys like Yonder Alonso and Charles Tilson are at least interesting. Both are cheap, both are lefties, and both hit in rime lineup real estate with Alonso 4th or 5th and Tilson leading off v. RHP lately. I’m not picking on Peacock really, but these are salary savers who make sense if needed.
Atlanta Braves @ San Francisco Giants
Mike Soroka – Big time prospect really showing why so far this year. Not a guy I want to pick on with a weak offense in a pitcher’s park.
Giants: AVOID THEM
Andrew Suarez – Was serviceable in 2018 as a starter for the big club. Been in AAA for the start of this year until now and hasn’t looked good. ERA over 6 in 6 AAA starts with a WHIP of 1.70. He was lights out to lefties in 2018, but sucked against righties with a .363 wOBA and 22 homers in 115 innings of work. Luckily he gets a good pitchers park, because tis offense should blow him up.
Ronald Acuna – monster 162 wRC+ v. LHP with a huge .416 wOBA and a big .312 ISO score. Elite level bat, pricey, but worth it.
Josh Donaldson – Always been a lefty crusher. Since 2016 on the downswing in his career battling injuries and yet still a 150+ WRC+ score with .395 wOBA and .272 ISO
Ozzie Albies – .392 wOBA, .217 ISO big numbers for a middle infielder. Good enough for a 143 wRC+ v. LHP
Johan Camargo – 136 wRC+ score vs. Lefties and tends to hit higher in the order against them. .379 wOBA and .244 ISO are well above average and borderline elite numbers.
Others: Tyler Flowers is another righty to consider. It’s him or Freeman for the #5 spot and while Freeman does hit lefties well, Suarez is very tough on them. On FD I go with the four above and skip Freeman. On DK he’s only in my lineup as the fifth of the stack. We have other catcher and first base options that profile well, so not playing these two if you stack Braves is not a mistake.
Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels
Odorizzi – in 9 starts this year only gave up over 3 runs once. Tough to trust as his lifetime xFIP is 4.45 and that’s around his xFIP this year. The hard part is that the ERA is just 2.63, meaning regression towards that lifetime and even seasonal xFIP is coming. He’s been good though. One other note is that Odorizzi is a reverse splits pitcher. Righties in same handed spots always do better against him than Lefties do.
Mike Trout – 186 wRC+ with a .442 wOBA and a .303 ISO against right-handed pitching and that’s actually Trout’s weaker split. Dude Is an absolute monster and the reverse splits for Odorizzi play into his hands.
Shohei Ohtani – Again, Odorizzi is tougher on these lefties, but I’ll stick with Ohtani because the guy is elite. He owns a 173 wRC+ score with a .420 wOBA and .324 ISO since coming to the majors. Those numbers are not far behind Trout and these two are a very dynamic duo.
Felix Pena – I’ll keep this one short. I like the kid, but the splits are severe. It’s stark contrast between his dominance of righties and his lack of ability to get out lefties. They own a .335 wOBA lifetime with a HR every 6 innings against him. I don’t like stacking against a guy with severe splits, but any lefty is worthy of inclusion.
Eddie Rosario – This is the biggest of the lefties here. Numbers aren’t elite though. Just a .348 wOBA, .232 ISO and a 118 wRC+. Best of them, but not best on the slate by a mile.
Jorge Polanco – Another solid, but not spectacular play here. 117 wRC+ is nice, but just a solid .349 wOBA and a league average .180ish ISO score.
Others: Max Kepler is more of a boom or bust guy, but is a lefty with slightly above average numbers in a perfect spot against a guy who can’t get lefties out.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Luke Weaver v. Chris Paddack
I don’t want bats against either of these guys to be honest. San Diego is not the best hitter’s park. Both young pitchers have looked great this year. Weaver has a sub 3 wOBA to both sides of the plate in 2019 to along with a 3.16 ERA and an xFIP of 3.68. Paddock has been even better with a sub 2 ERA, 0.75 WHIP and over a K per inning through his first 45. No more than 3 runs allowed in any of those PAddack starts and frankly neither team has much in the way of bats that project well. The best one on Arizona is probably David Peralta. He owns a 127 wRC+ and a .370 wOBA with a .211 ISO. All solid numbers. Machado and Hosmer are the best to use against Weaver, but really they are both solid, not elite. I like these pitchers and am avoiding the bats for DFS.
Top Stacks: Yankees, NAtionals, Astros
Sneaky Stack: Mariners, Rangers
Top Bat: Mike Trout
HR Call: Edwin Encarnacion
5% HR call: Rhys Hoskins
1% HR Call: Josh Reddick
C: Gary Sanchez, Wilson Ramos, Tyler Flowers
1B: Anthony Rizzo, Edwin Encarnacion, Luke Voit, Pete Alonso (GPP), Rhys Hoskins (GPP)
2B: Ozzie Albies, Gleyber Torres
SS: Trea Turner, Carlos Correa, Jorge Polanco, Tim Beckham
3B: Alex Bregman, Josh Donaldson, Anthony Rendon, Yoan Moncada, Johan Carmago
OF: Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna, Eddie Rosario, Shohei Ohtani, Trey Mancini, Juan Soto, Adam Eaton, Domingo Santana, Mitch Haniger, Josh Reddick, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Bryce Harper (GPP)