It’s a fun and full 15-game slate with a few high totals: STL-TEX (10.5), TOR-CWS (10.0), KCR-LAA (9.5), MIN-SEA (9.5), HOU-BOS (9.0), MIL-ATL (9.0). It means we won’t see any stacks too chalky given how many games we have.
The Angels have the highest projected total facing righty Brad Keller but I believe Vegas has this wrong. More on that when you read about Ohtani. Two games that may be intriguing to pick pieces from are the Red Sox / Astros and Rockies / Phillies. Expensive players, but many of the best in the league.
You also won’t see many attacking Astros’ stud Gerrit Cole but it’s hard to completely ignore a $4400 Mookie Betts and $4500 J.D. Martinez, right? They’re not listed below, but I’m making sure to mention them here if you want to get crazy in multi-entry GPPs since Cole has allowed five homers in his last three outings.
Rockies have been hitting better on the road lately and visiting a good hitters’ park facing a rookie making his second career big-league start. The Athletics have some insane value pricing and that’s something we can get behind tonight. I wouldn’t at all be shocked by a Dylan Bundy gem out of nowhere, but those Indians’ bats are hard to ignore altogether.
Finally, make sure you get some Royals exposure today against Matt Harvey and perhaps some Dodgers one-offs (or maybe even a stack) as they visit the Reds in Cincinnati.
Chalky Stacks: Angels, Braves, Astros, Royals, A’s, Blue Jays – all less than 25% given size of slate
Low Percentage Stacks: Brewers, Cardinals, Rockies, Dodgers
My Favorite Stacks: Indians, Astros, Royals, A’s, Rockies
Value Stacks: A’s, Indians, White Sox
Core 4 for Cash: Chapman (OAK) + Piscotty (OAK) + Bellinger (LAD) + Kipnis (CLE)
GPP: Kyle Farmer (RH/CIN – FD only) – This is a crazy one, but hear me out. He’s facing the team that gave up on him (the Dodgers), is only $2100 and is facing a left-handed pitcher (Rich Hill). Sure, Hill is a good one, but Farmer has been stout against southpaws with a .435 ISO against them. Only Michael Chavis and Jose Altuve have been better in that regard amongst 2B’s. Farmer is 1B/2B on DK. GPP only though please and, of course, let’s make sure he’s in the lineup.
GPP: Alex Avila (LH/ARI) – Big fan of his today if he’s in the lineup. Avila still has that patented pop after all these years and Jeff Samardzija has a .357 wOBA with 4 HR allowed in 17.1 innings against lefties this season. Just 30 PA but Avila has a .381 ISO – the fourth best mark among catchers.
Others to Consider: Yadier Molina (RH/STL), Gary Sanchez (RH/NYY), Willians Astudillo (RH/MIN)
Freddie Freeman (LH/ATL) – Homered yesterday and has been swinging the bat well in May. Has two dingers and five hits total in 17 career PA against Jhoulys Chacin. Freeman hitting over 100 points better on the road this year (.354 to .253) but that should certainly balance out over the course of the season.
Justin Smoak (LH/TOR) – The SmoakDog is far too cheap on FD ($3100) and Nova has been truly horrendous this season (6.29 ERA) despite giving up limited walks as always (6% BB). Smoak doesn’t care about taking walks, he’s looking for the big bombs, and so are we.
GPP: Ryan O’Hearn(LH/KCR) – He’s going to start cranking eventually. Hitting the ball hard (42% HH vs. righties) and the matchup with Matt Harvey is a good one.
Others to Consider: Paul Goldschmidt (RH/STL), Carlos Santana (SW/CLE)
CASH: Nicky Lopez (LH/KCR) – Cheap on both sites, moved to 2B finally. LvR matchup against weak-ass Matt Harvey and probably hitting second again.
Jason Kipnis (LH/CLE) – Strike while iron’s hot. Kip was a recommended season-long pickup this week and came through with a 2 HR, 6 RBI game yesterday, today’s prices not reflected. Just $3300 on DK, $2800 on FD. No man has allowed more homers than Dylan Bundy since the beginning of last year (Bundy – 42, Mike Fiers second with 41).
Others to Consider: Tommy La Stella (LH/LAA), Jonathan Villar (SW/BAL)
CASH: Matt Chapman (RH/OAK) – Second-best ISO against southpaws (.486). Daniel Norris allows a 40% hard hit rate to righties.
GPP: Nolan Arenado (RH/COL) – Rookie SP Cole Irvin had a great debut but may have to bite more than he can chew against these Rockies’ right-handed mashers. Even if wind blowing in, Citizens Bank Park is still a great place for Nolan to pop off.
Alex Bregman (RH/HOU) – Rick Porcello had that surprise AL Cy Young campaign but has otherwise been one for us to pick on. Bregman has hit 11 of his 14 homers this season against righties and Porcello is allowing a career-worst 1.65 HR/9.
Others to Consider: Matt Carpenter (LH/STL), Austin Riley (RH/ATL – only $2100 on FD), Jose Ramirez (SW/CLE)
CASH/STACK: Francisco Lindor (SH/CLE) – Leadoff, reasonably priced on DK ($4500), four multi-hit games in his last five.
Corey Seager (LH/LAD) – Should hit second, Dodgers fourth-highest projected run total (4.9) and he’s 5-for-12 over his last three games – warming up.
Adalberto Mondesi (SW/KCR) – Always a threat to run, leads majors with 15 SB. Harvey will be one of our favorite targets to pick on today.
Brendan Rodgers (RH/COL – FD only) – Should be in the lineup making his MLB debut. Big-time prospect hit 17 HR with 12 SB in 95 Double-A games. Nine homers in 35 games hitting .356 in Triple-A this season.
Others to Consider: Oscar Mercado (RH/CLE – OF on DK), Paul DeJong (RH/STL), Carlos Correa (RH/HOU – Always Correa)
FADE ANGELS?: Shohei Ohtani (LH/LAA) – The DK algorithm priced Angels bats up for this matchup where they have the slate’s highest projected run total (5.2) but they’re undervaluing Royals’ righty Brad Keller because he’s been off to a bad start. Keller isn’t that bad (definitely not the worst pitcher on the slate) and has actually allowed just 3 HR in 52 IP. On such a big slate, you may want to consider looking elsewhere for your stacks and consider having less exposure to the Angels than the field.
Cody Bellinger (LH/LAD) – So many options to spend up for and Belli is the best of the bunch today with his matchup in a great hitters’ park against Disco (DeSclafani) who stinks against mediocre LHH’s, let alone someone of Bellinger’s caliber.
Marcell Ozuna (RH/STL) – He’s been smashing all season. Yet another home run yesterday which is his 13thof the season despite a weak .231 average. He’ll get Jose LeClerc, their former closer-turned-opener for that first at-bat and then some Adrian Sampson who is Jekkyl and Hyde at times but one of the worst pitchers on this slate.
Alex Gordon (LH/KCR) – You may not remember but Gordon was a former number-one overall draft pick. He’s had a couple of good seasons but pretty much a forgettable career. This season, he’s doing it all and holding it down in the #3 lineup slot, ranking 13thin MLB in RBI and has a .402 wOBA against righties. Take advantage here with Harvey on the mound.
Others to Consider: Stack Astros (George Springer-RH, Michael Brantley-LH, Josh Reddick-LH)
Joc Pederson (LH/LAD – $3100 on FD) – Much more reasonable on FanDuel (he’s $5000 on DK). Disco gets crushed by lefty bats and Joc just happens to be 4-for-9 with 2 HR against him.
Khris Davis (RH/OAK) – Way too cheap and hitting for power against lefties this season too.
Nick Markakis (LH/ATL) – Not a ton of power upside but could get jiggy with it in a mini-stack with Freeman and perhaps one more Braves guy in cash or GPPs.
Willie Calhoun (LH/TEX) – Ride the train while you can, even if it’s against a respectable pitcher like Miles Mikolas. Calhoun was a big Dodgers’ prospect who struggled in the majors during his cup of tea last season but doing everything he can to prove he belongs this season.
Stephen Piscotty (RH/OAK) – Pretty much $3600 on DK every day and this time it’s a great matchup against a lefty. Piscotty has a .440 wOBA and team-leading 183 wRC+ against southpaws.
Chad Pinder (RH/OAK) – Fellow Athletics’ righty who crushed lefties last season but has so far underperformed in 2019. Would love to see him get a clutch lineup slot tonight (maybe second?).
Carlos Gonzalez & Jake Bauer (LH’s/CLE) – Just feels like an all-in type of scenario for the Indians, especially when they’re this cheap and have the momentum of some great games. Too bad this game is at home though and not in Camden. Either way, picking on Orioles’ pitching (including an awful bullpen) is always a good way to go.
Nicky Delmonico (LH/CHW) – Calling my shot tonight for a home run against Aaron Sanchez. Don’t think I could play him on my main lineup, but I’ll have exposure in GPPs.