For this Tuesday, it’s a 12-game main slate with three games off the grid. Some fine aces today and the big pitching duel of the day will be in L.A. where Chris Paddack and Clayton Kershaw will toe the rubber. We also have three interleague matchups with the Rockies-Red Sox (Chris Sale pitching), Blue Jays-Giants and Rays-Marlins – all three of which are quick two-game series’.
Based on matchups and Vegas totals/run lines it’s quite obvious that the red-hot Altuve-less Astros righties will be the highest-owned in cash games and that the Rangers-Royals game will see its fair share of ownership as well – particularly on the Kansas City side with gas can Shelby Miller on the mound for Texas.
Shockingly, the lowest run total on the slate isn’t SDP-LAD, it’s actually the Rays and Marlins since they’ll have two of the league’s most reliable pitchers on the mound today (Charlie Morton, Caleb Smith). The A’s remain disrespected salary-wise (mostly on DK) and come in rather cheap despite a high run total on the road against Mike Leake and the Mariners. Another storyline worth tracking is how Pirates’ supposed ace Joe Musgrove will fair after getting bombed in each of his last two starts.
Chalky Stacks: Astros, Royals, Red Sox, Athletics
Low Percentage Stacks: Tigers, Giants, Braves, Twins, Mariners
My Favorite Stacks: Astros, Athletics, Red Sox
Value Stacks: Athletics (DK), Tigers
Core 4 for Cash: J.D. Martinez (BOS) OR GeorgeSpringer (HOU) + KhrisDavis (OAK) + Ryan O’Hearn (KCR) + Alex Gordon (KCR)
FADE: Robinson Chirinos (RH/HOU)
Chirinos has been going bananas of late with two homers and five RBI in his last three games. Sometimes we just lock into a streak when we can. But at $4300 on DK, it’s a high price to pay, especially with better pieces to use from the ‘Stros. Not to mention, all of Chirinos’ power comes against righties (.292 ISO against them, .125 vs LHP).
Tom Murphy (RH/SEA), Martin Maldonado (RH/KCR), Stephen Vogt (LH/SFG), Francisco Cervelli (RH/PIT)
Catcher is truly horrendous today so it makes plenty of sense to go all the way down to the punt range with pitchers in good matchups (Murphy vs a lefty, Maldo vs Shelby Miller, Vogt vs the rookie Thornton on the road). Maldonado is truly horrendous though. Hitting well below the Mendoza Line and just three RBI and one homer on the season. It must be noted how bad Cervelli has been this season. His .194/.288/.255 slash is abysmal, especially in comparison to last season’s .259/.378/.431. He’s 33 and was never much of a hitter to begin with, but I don’t believe Cervelli is absolutely toast.
CASH: Yuli Gurriel (RH/HOU), Paul Goldschmidt (RH/STL), Josh Bell (SW/PIT)
GPP: Ryan O’Hearn (LH/KCR), Matt Olson (LH/OAK)
Gurriel is my favorite play for the price and he’s been hitting lefties well this season (.416 wOBA, .226 ISO) and actually has yet to strike out against one in 37 plate appearances. Sometimes we fade chalk, but not necessary in cash as southpaw Ryan Carpenter is arguably the worst starting pitcher on this slate.
O’Hearn has been oh’so bad yet these are the types of outings where some correction could kick in. He ranks among the league leaders in hard-hit rate (51.2%) and is crushing the ball at a 92.1 exit velocity. Shelby Miller happens to allow one of the highest hard-hit rate to lefties in baseball (51.3%). Olson hit a homer over the weekend and that’s promising for a guy coming off a hamate bone injury.
CASH: Whit Merrifield (RH/KCR), Tommy La Stella (LH/LAA)
GPP: Kolten Wong (LH/STL), Starlin Castro (RH/MIA)
Keeping the core tight here today. Merrifield is your spend-up option and Wong is the BvP play of the day (5-for-7 with three doubles, a homer, five runs, four ribbies and three walks). La Stella listed because this guy is on another level these days (crushed his team-leading 10thhomer yesterday) and Castro is the dirt-cheap punt who is hitting .400 in 30 PA against Morton (with 3 HR).
CASH: Alex Bregman (RH/HOU), Hunter Dozier (RH/KCR), Matt Chapman (RH/OAK)
GPP: Nolan Arenado (RH/COL), Anthony Rendon (RH/WAS), Vlad Guerrero Jr. (RH/TOR)
PUNTS: Marwin Gonzalez (SW/MIN – FD), Jeimer Candelario (SW/DET)
Third Base is loaded to the gills today with Bregman leading the way. Three homers and seven RBI over his last two games, facing a lefty and much more reasonably priced on FanDuel.
Arenado and Rendon will be lower-owned plays despite being two of the best hitters in baseball this season. Low ownership is mostly because of who the opposing pitches are (Sale against COL and Syndergaard against WAS). But it’s still Arenado against a lefty in a good hitters’ park and is 10-for-32 with 2 HR against Thor.
Guerrero is simply just due and the price tags won’t get any cheaper than they are now ($3500 DK, $2700 FD). Price subdued not only because of recent performance but also because of the ballpark (AT&T).
CASH: Carlos Correa (RH/HOU), Adalberto Mondesi (SW/KCR),Xander Bogaerts (RH/BOS)
GPP: Ronny Rodriguez (RH/DET), Brandon Crawford (LH/SFG),Elvis Andrus (RH/TEX)
Shortstop is rather weak today actually. Once again, not many values here because the guys priced down below honestly don’t ever do very much offensively and are tough pills to swallow. Correa, Mondesi and Bogaerts lead the charge though with Mondesi possessing the high GPP upside. Correa has 3 HR, 10 RBI and is averaging 9.2 DKP over his last 10 while Bogaerts also has 3 HR this past week and a whopping .400 ISO against lefties (Freeland pitching for the Rockies).
I’ve listed RonnyRo against the lefty but just note that he hits for all of his power against righties. So far this season, a .407 ISO against them while still a decent .250 ISO against lefties. Tigers are a sneaky play against road Miley the lefty.
EXPENSIVE: George Springer (RH/HOU), J.D. Martinez (RH/BOS), Alex Gordon (LH/KCR – midrange on FD), Christian Yelich (LH/MLW)
MIDRANGE: Khris Davis (RH/OAK), Nick Castellanos (RH/DET), Hunter Pence (RH/TEX), Ronald Acuna Jr (RH/ATL), Jorge Soler (RH/KCR), Franmil Reyes (RH/SDP)
CHEAP: Stephen Piscotty (RH/OAK), Mac Williamson (RH/SFG), Jake Marisnick (RH/HOU – midrange on DK), Niko Goodrum (SW/DET)
Keeping the core of expensive outfielders small and not listing everyone (as you can see, no Betts or Trout here today). Springer, JDM and Gordon have the best matchups and I’d like to fit them in if at all possible in cash game lineups. Springer is $5800 on DK (second priciest behind Yelich) and that’s because of the matchup, but also, six dingers over his last 10.
Among the midrange, Davis is my favorite as he’s far too cheap ($4000 DK, $3600 FD). He’s the league’s best power hitter over the last couple seasons and went yard twice yesterday for the first time since being sidelined a week ago hurting his hip after running into a wall.
Castellanos against a lefty is always in play for me. Franmil can hit anyone and a matchup against Kershaw doesn’t really scare me. Marisnick listed because I recommended him in season-long leagues this week and he’s already gone yard. Marisnick for cheap on DK makes a lot of sense because he leave the yard with a dinger or two.