Friday is our feel-good slate. A whopping 14 games with us missing out on the Brewers-Cubs since they play earlier in the day. Weather around the league shouldn’t be as much of an issue today as it had been mid-week, but there may still be some trouble spots we’ll need to keep an eye on.
ANGELS (Trevor Cahill – RH) @ ORIOLES (Dan Straily – RH): LAA -165 (10.0)
- Cahill (LAA) was pushed to today and he looks to bounce back after allowing 19 ER in his last four starts. He’s got a horrendous .497 wOBA against LHH’s allowing a .382 AVG this year so one-offs like Dwight Smith Jr might work. Only use Orioles if you’re playing more than five GPP lineups and you could use a sneaky 4-5-6 stack of lefties/switch-hitters like Rio Ruiz/Chris Davis/Stevie Wilkerson if you’re utilizing expensive pitching. All in all, I’d rather take a shot on Cahill as SP2 on DK.
- Straily (BAL) has been horrendous. He’s allowed 8 HR and 19 ER in 23 IP. It’s about time for Mike Trout to get launching since he hasn’t done so in 16 games now. Tommy La Stella has to be on dem roids as he leads this team in homers (smashed another two last night). I’d still rather use Shohei Ohtani against a flyball righty for the price over an expensive Trout.
Verdict: Don’t stack, use Angels one-offs or a mini stack.
WHITE SOX (Dylan Covey – RH) @ BLUE JAYS (Clay Buchholz – RH): TOR -130 (9.5)
- White Sox are priced up on DK with Abreu/Anderson both over 5k. Buchholz has been bad too, allowing 7 ER in his last outing and three or more in each of his last four starts. This is one of the highest combined Vegas total games but there are better ways to go than the White Sox today. Abreu happens to be 1-for-11 lifetime against Buchholz.
- Covey is back making his second spot start of the season. He’s been solid in Triple-A (2.51 ERA in three starts with a 1.88 BB/9). The Jays are cheap on both sites because they’ve been the coldest offense in baseball in the last 10 days. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is only $2500 on FD. He’s due for his first homer soon, isn’t he? Either way, Jays are a sneaky stack but not a favorite of mine as I expect a decent outing out of Covey.
Verdict: Don’t pay up for pricey White Sox players. Blue Jays as a sneaky stack but also Covey as SP2.
MARLINS (Pablo Lopez – RH) @ METS (Zack Wheeler – RH): NYM -165 (7.0)
- A very low total here with two decent pitchers so not a game to target for cash. Lopez (MIA) could poop the bed when we’re high on him so this is potentially one of these spots if he can’t locate. Either way, he’s been terrific (25% K, 5.8% BB) but those Mets lefties could be considered for a GPP stack outside of your three top teams. Marlins against Wheeler? No thanks.
YANKEES (Domingo German – RH) @ RAYS (Tyler Glasnow – RH): TBR -130 (7.5)
- Very little stacking interest for me against two of baseball’s hottest pitchers. If I had to pick a side though it’d be these Rays’ lefty bats against German who has a 2.35 ERA but a 3.93 xFIP. German has only allowed two homers this season but the Rays are patient against righties and dink and dunk you anyways. We may also see the return of Austin Meadows so I wouldn’t mind him and Brandon Lowe.
Verdict: Prefer the pitchers and think this game will be low-scoring but could see these Rays lefties getting to German. German last walked more than three batters in his first game and I could see that happening again today.
MARINERS (Erik Swanson – RH) @ RED SOX (Eduardo Rodriguez – LH): BOS -185 (9.5)
- Red Sox will be a popular stack against rookie Swanson who served up 10 runs in back-to-back games prior to his gem (one-hitter) against the Indians last week. We haven’t seen enough of Swanson to know which one will show up but I’d err on the side of utilizing Boston bats. Michael Chavis and Mookie Betts are the only two with wOBA’s over .400 against righties.
- Mariners bats are better utilized against RHP’s but Domingo Santana is warming back up at the plate and has a .330 ISO against lefties. Don’t love the stack but would consider him as a one-off. Also in play are Tim Beckham (.464 wOBA vs LHP) and Mitch Haniger(.440 wOBA).
Verdict: Can stack Red Sox in tourneys as you’ll get them at a lower-percentage than usual on such a big slate. Top five stack today. Mariners could work too, but more so as one-offs as E-Rod could dominate.
RANGERS (Lance Lynn – RH) @ ASTROS (Justin Verlander – RH): HOU -250 (8.0)
- Lynn (TEX) has been stingy with the homers this year allowing just three on the year. Low total here but he does have a .372 wOBA against righties this year. It’s a bit deceiving since his career wOBA against RHP is .282 while against LHP it’s .345. Either way, don’t mind me some red-hot George Springer leading off a stack that should include the next four in the lineup (Altuve, Bregman, Brantley, Correa). I do like Brantley and Correa a lot today.
- Verlander occasionally shocks us by allowing some runs but on a big slate like today, I’d be more shocked with 5 ER allowed than I would him whiffing 10. Don’t use Rangers bats.
Verdict: Avoid Rangers against Verlander and feel free to sprinkle Astros in cash or stack them in GPPs.
TIGERS (Tyson Ross – RH) @ TWINS (Jake Odorizzi – RH): MIN -210 (9.0)
- Love the Twins today. Huge favorites, the offense is on fire and Ross allows a .420 wOBA and has a 15% (!) walk rate against righties this year. It’s time for a Nelson Cruz bomb and C.J. Cron is very reasonably priced on DK ($4200) and FD ($3000). He had four hits in his last game and has two homers in his last four.
- It’s a mismatch for these Tigers bats who have a weak .145 ISO as a team against righties and the second-highest K-rate against them (26.6%). Prefer Odorizzi here over the bats.
Verdict: Stack your Twins and if you do, be sure to include Cron. Don’t use Tigers bats.
PHILLIES (Jake Arrieta – RH) @ ROYALS (Homer Bailey – RH): PHI -150 (9.0)
- Arrieta’s just your middle of the road dude, but he doesn’t give up a ton of homers (1.00 HR/9) and I’d give him the edge over Royals’ bats. The bullpen has been mighty tidy as well.
- The Phillies will be a top-five stack against Bailey but would obviously be much more popular if the game was in Philadelphia. Bailey has one of the better k-rates of his career (22.5%) but may not stand a chance here, and their bullpen is even worse. It’s expensive, but I’d consider a Jean Segura– Bryce Harper– Rhys Hoskins– J.T. Realmuto stack.
Verdict: Feel free to stack Philly big bats in a three-entry max GPP and don’t go too heavy on Royals.
PIRATES (Trevor Williams – RH) @ CARDINALS (Adam Wainwright – RH): STL -135 (8.5)
- A very boring game on paper with two very boring pitchers on the mound. Williams (PIT) offers very little punchout-ability (18% K) and some of these bats have a strong history against him, namely Matt Carpenter (8-for-19 with 3 HR) and Paul DeJong (5-for-12). Even Kolten Wong is 4-for-8.
- Don’t love Wainwright at this stage of his career but there are far better options today than these Pirates bats on the road.
Verdict: The Cards blew up on ‘em last night and I wouldn’t expect more than six runs today, but would still consider some of the BvP history with these Cards’ bats.
PADRES (Eric Lauer – LH) @ ROCKIES (German Marquez – RH): COL -160 (10.0)
- Coors Field, baby. They blew up for over 20 runs yesterday in snow. Lauer (SDP) can surely strike out his fair share of opposing batters and I do like him in certain spots, but this is not one of them. Give me the lefty-boppers (Nolan Arenado/Trevor Story) as core plays that I’m willing to pay up for. Probably wouldn’t go full stack here with this lefty-heavy Rockies’ lineup.
- Marquez can be maddening at times. A CGSO one day then five runs on a couple homers the next. No one is safe at Coors. He did pitch remarkably against the Padres in three starts last year including a game with 13 whiffs. Despite this game being at Coors, the Padres are not one of my five favorite stacks and I’d be hard-pressed to play many of these guys against Marquez today. If anything, I’d go with a random Austin Hedges.
Verdict: No full stacks here but Arenado and Story are core plays against the lefty at home. Don’t forget about Mark Reynolds!
INDIANS (Cody Anderson – RH) @ ATHLETICS (Frankie Montas – RH): LINE AND TOTAL TBD
- Not crazy about Indians’ bats against Montas who has been incredibly solid on the mound this season. Certainly not as good as that 2.75 ERA portrays but this lineup doesn’t exactly inspire a must-use attitude on such a big slate. There will be a time where we’ll want to play underpriced Francisco Lindor and Jose Ramirez but this really isn’t it.
- You’ll see folks load up on A’s bats today but they won’t be a top-three stack or anything. That’s because Cody Anderson has been out of the league for a couple of seasons and in his first start of the season, he got run upon like gangbusters allowing a grand slam and not making it out of the first. He’ll be better today and these A’s bats may be without Khris Davis again so they aren’t particularly intimidating.
Verdict: Could stack A’s but I’d rather look elsewhere. This game is a fade in general for me.
BRAVES (Julio Teheran – RH) @ DIAMONDBACKS (Zack Greinke – RH): ARI -140 (8.5)
- No thanks on Braves against Greinke who is averaging a strikeout per inning and has a sterling 2.53 ERA at home (and a miniscule .254 wOBA).
- The Dbacks just don’t have any intimidating lefty bats to utilize against Teheran other than David Peralta and he isn’t exactly hitting well these days. I’d bet this is a low-scoring game.
Verdict: Would use the pitchers and fade the hitters.
NATIONALS (Anibal Sanchez – RH) @ DODGERS (Kenta Maeda – RH): LAD -185 (8.0)
- Sanchez (WAS) continues to induce some of the league’s lowest hard-contact but it’s no easy matchup for him here. Considering this bullpen has been a disaster as well (league-worst 6.41 ERA), the Dodgers line up can be considered as a sneaky late-night stack. Could see Joc Pederson getting back in the home run column, but better yet, love Max Muncy and Alex Verdugo here. You could go Cody Bellinger as a one-off, but he’s still damn expensive. There’s a reason for that as he’s been the league’s best hitter.
- Anyone notice how un-Maeda like Kenta has been this season? A 1.40 WHIP, 11% BB and a 4.66 ERA (4.74 xFIP portends to the fact that he hasn’t even been that unlucky). If he’s not careful, he’ll be moved to the ‘pen and Stripling or Urias could move into the rotation. That stated, it’s probably a good bounce-back spot for him with these Nats depleted without Soto, Turner, Zimmerman and Adams. The Nats are one of the better-hitting offenses against LHP’s but not so much against RHP’s.
Verdict: Not a particularly sexy game, but I’d probably lay off the Nats bats even though Maeda hasn’t been great and would consider some Dodgers.
REDS (Luis Castillo – RH) @ GIANTS (Dereck Rodriguez – RH): CIN -140 (7.5)
- One of the lowest totals on the slate and that’s because it’s Castillo on the mound. The Giants are out of Coors now and fall back to reality so they are a full fade for me.
- Rodriguez (SFG) dodged a bullet with the mid-week rainout and avoided Coors. Instead, he gets a lukewarm Reds offense in a great pitchers’ park. At some point I’ll be stacking the hell out of Reds bats, but not sure this is the spot. D-Rod has been horrendous (2.25 HR/9, 5.25 ERA) but could pitch alright at home here.
Verdict: Use Castillo in the good matchup but since this is a hitter article, I say…fade the hitters!
Chalky Stacks: Rockies RH’s, Red Sox, Twins, Phillies, Astros, Angels
Low Percentage Stacks: Dodgers, Athletics, Mariners, Rays, Cardinals
My Favorite Stacks: Twins, Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox, Rockies
Value Stacks: Blue Jays, Athletics, Orioles
Core 4 for Cash: Reynolds (COL) or Cron (MIN) + Carpenter (STL) + Story (COL) + Ohtani or Trout (LAA)
DK Value Punts: Brian Dozier ($3100), Miguel Andujar ($3300), Billy McKinney ($3400), Joey Votto($3500), Ian Kinsler ($3600), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($3600), Matt Carpenter ($3800), Justin Bour ($3900)
FD Value Punts: Chris Davis ($2300), Nicky Delmonico ($2400), Justin Bour ($2500), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($2500), Ji-Man Choi ($2600), Austin Hedges ($2800), Alex Verdugo ($2900), Derek Dietrich ($2900), Randal Grichuk ($3000), Mark Reynolds ($3000) or C.J. Cron ($3000)