Since today is a split slate, I decided to do my MLB GPP Breakdown “Healy style.” Today, I’ll be covering both the six-game early slate, beginning at 1:10 pm ET, and the five-game main slate, beginning at 7:05 pm ET.
If you’re not familiar with this piece, it will be broken down into four sections:
- A cheat sheet with my favorite players at each position and in each tier.
- My top pitchers to target on today’s slate.
- My favorite stacks to target and which players I really want to include in them.
- The “Today’s Edge” section, which covers my favorite play (or fade) on the slate, and the players I expect to be the top performers.
Zach Greinke – The Kershaw/Darvish battle in San Diego will be amazing to watch, but do you want to pay $9400+ for starters against the best two offenses in baseball? While many will be on this slate, I’d rather head to Seattle and roster Greinke against a bad Seattle offense. Greinke was bad in his last start vs. Detroit, but it’s since come out that the Astros had gotten the COVID vaccine before that series, so I’m willing to give Greinke a pass. Greinke (along with Flexen) draws Ron Kulpa behind the plate, who’s historically a great ump for pitchers. With a veteran pitcher who knows how to work the edges and a very undisciplined young Mariners team, this could lead to more strikeouts than you’d think.
Chris Flexen – There actually were a few good value candidates, but I decided to stick in Seattle and go with Flexen against the sick-riddled Houston Astros. The KBO ace has come back to MLB this year and posted a good start against SF and a bad one against Minnesota. However, that Minnesota start wasn’t as bad as it looked, and this Houston offense is weaker than that MIN one.
Honorable Mention: Dean Kremer – Dean Kremer is a good pitching prospect. And while the Rangers finally have the humidor working and operational, this Texas lineup is just so bad, there is merit to anyone with talent for cheap who can strike out 6-7. Kremer hasn’t put it together this year, but in tournaments, you can take a shot on the talent.
Minnesota Twins – Jose Quintana has been done for a few years, yet teams keep trotting him out there. Quintana couldn’t make it out of the 4th inning against Houston, giving up 4 runs, and that was his better start as he didn’t get out of the 2nd inning against the Blue Jays and gave up 5. While the Twins were one of the worst teams against left-handed pitching in 2020, I’m chalking that up to injury luck and noise, as a lineup with Sano, Donaldson, Garver and Astudillo should be just fine against left-handed pitching. This is a good spot to buy low on the Twins offense.
Pittsburgh Pirates – You could stack the Dodgers or Padres, but both have tough matchups and get elite bullpens even if the starters flounder a little. The Angels against Shoemaker will be the mega-chalk, so you could go there, but let’s get weird with the Pirates. Brett Anderson is nothing special, and the Brewers bullpen isn’t in the best shape following the Cardinals series. I wouldn’t do this in single-entry GPP’s, but if you are in a large-field tournament, they are worth a strong look.
Baltimore Orioles – The first day of the new humidor balls in Texas led to balls flying better than I’ve ever seen in that ballpark. While Dane Dunning isn’t bad, he’s also nothing special, and the Texas bullpen has been bad for the last decade (especially when playing from behind). Stacking Baltimore (or a YOLO Texas stack) is a bet that the humidor effects are for real and will help the ball carry, and you are hopping on before anyone else notices what’s up.
- Highest Scoring Hitter: Jared Walsh
- Highest Scoring Pitcher: Zach Greinke
- Top Value Play: DJ Stewart
- Player to Fade: Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Slate Edge: Chris Flexen
Hit me up on Twitter @TheSeigeDFS or visit the MLB Chat Room with any lineup questions!