DOMINATE today’s DraftKings and FanDuel MLB GPP contests with these pitchers, stacks and one-off players!
Check out the MLB NOW Livestream for a deeper analysis of the plays: Sometimes our favorites will change as lineups come out and we discuss them, so make sure you tune in!
This article will have three parts; 1) Pitching Breakdown, 2) Stack Breakdown, 3) Favorite Hitters by Position, and then some hot takes at the bottom. With only six games on the slate, I’m going to try and not recommend everyone, so the article will appear to be a bit shorter than normal. Just a reminder, I’ll be on the livestream with Ricky at 5pm ET, so if you have questions about players I don’t mention, be sure to ask then!
Tier 1: The Core Pitchers (these are pitchers who will be in majority of my lineups)
- Clayton Kershaw – Anyone who knows me knows I thought Clayton Kershaw in the preseason was one of the most overhyped season-long players getting drafted in round 2 and 3 of high-stakes. Guess this is me officially taking that L because he has been absolutely fantastic and draws a match-up tonight against a completely tanking Diamondbacks team. Look for them to play more lefties than you’d expect vs Kershaw to make the matchup better. Also this game in Chase Field, which is a park upgrade given the current heatwave in LA.
Tier 2: Not Quite Core Pitchers
- Zach Davies – The show goes on for Davies this year who has been outstanding. Davies has struck out RHB’s at a 30.7% clip thanks to a top-level changeup. The key here tho is while he has some major power regression vs RHB’s incoming (.152 ISO vs .294 xISO), he’s been dominant vs LHB’s allowing a .195 wOBA on the season. Normally someone like this wouldn’t be a Tier 2 pitcher but the options other than the three studs at the top all have major flaws.
- JT Brubaker – I think you’ll see most people have Dane Dunning in this 2nd Tier and I get it, I thought about writing him up as the 3rd option in this tier but I wanted to give Brubaker some love. He’s pitched very well this year in limited action. While it is limited action the advanced metrics are great, he’s been dominant vs RHB’s (what he’ll see most of in this White Sox lineup) holding them to a .128 xISO and a .296 xWOBA while striking out 28.6% of them. Pittsburgh is also one of the worst parks for right-handed power which is how the White Sox beat you. The issue is the pitch count as he hasn’t gone over 90 pitches yet but if he goes well tonight I think he gets across that mark.
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Pitchers
- Dane Dunning – Been good so far, but the schedule has been as easy as it can get, and while Pittsburgh isn’t elite, they certainly are the best left-handed bats he’s faced so far and the ownership could get out of control.
- Trevor Bauer & Yu Darvish – Fine GPP pivots off of Kershaw each with huge ceilings anytime they pitch.
Tier 1: The Core Stacks
- New York Mets – Jorge Lopez is one of the worst pitchers in the majors allowing a .270 xISO and a .383 xWOBA vs left-handed batters and the Mets have an army of them with Nimmo, Conforto, Cano, Dominic Smith, etc. Baltimore bullpen nothing to write home about after that.
- Baltimore Orioles – I really could have just cut and paste the paragraph above and put Rick Porcello in over Jorge Lopez. Porcello has the opposite issue tho that he can’t get any right-handed batters out allowing a .249 xISO and a .390 xWOBA vs them. Baltimore will roll out a very right-handed lineup including my favorite bat of all Ryan Mountcastle.
Tier 2: The Not Quite Core Stacks
- Los Angeles Angels – Kyle Cody is nothing special and we are going to get a nice top of the order in Ohtani/Trout/Rendon, which is one of the best three-man combos at low ownership against the Texas pen and unproven starter. This is more of an ownership play than loving the depth of the lineup but on this slate think it’s worth the shot.
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Stacks
- San Diego Padres – On fire, but I respect Senzatela enough that I’m not core stacking against him outside of Coors.
- Rockies – I wrote up Zach Davies in Tier 2 but he does have insane regression incoming against right-handed power bats and the Story/Arenado combination could be where it all goes wrong.
- Oakland – Luis Garcia seems like a solid prospect but he hasn’t pitched above high A ball providing a ton of upside if it goes wrong.
Top Players By Position
Will discuss on the livestream once we have lineups!
Seige’s MLB GPP Hot Takes
Highest Scoring Hitter: Ryan Mountcastle
Highest Scoring Pitcher: Clayton Kershaw
Biggest Bust Hitter: Tim Anderson
Biggest Bust Pitcher: Tommy Milone
Top Value Play: Garrett Cooper
For a complete look at my various MLB GPP strategies in 2020, click the link below or hit me up on Twitter, @TheSeigeDFS!