DOMINATE today’s DraftKings and FanDuel MLB GPP contests with these pitchers, stacks and one-off players!
Make sure you tune into the Core 4 Livestream at 5pm eastern for the latest news and thoughts leading up to lock!
Tier 0: The Just Skip Slate If You Aren’t Playing Him Pitcher
- Daniel Lynch – We debut Tier 0 to emphasize the point that there is no fading Daniel Lynch today on Draftkings at his absurd 4k price tag. I was quite disappointed that Lynch wasn’t in the 6-7k or even 8k range because he would have made an appearance in Tier 1 but alas he was at 4k and none of the other sites could be bothered to have him in their player pool. (UPDATE: SuperDraft has added Lynch at a 1.75x multiplier, fantastic spot to play tournaments tonight)
Lynch is the #1 Royals prospect and #24 in all of baseball and he possesses elite starter stuff featuring an upper 90’s fastball with elite slider and has a slightly above-average changeup and curveball. No real command and control issues in the minors, but for a MLB debut those can happen to anyone (if you are paranoid about playing a young player just build a $1 or $4 GPP Indians team for a hedge). The Indians have a 87 WRC+ against left-handed pitching so it’s a good matchup. Don’t overthink this if you are playing on DK – just play Lynch.
(Note: Yes, in tournaments you can fit Glasnow/Buehler/Coors but you don’t think everyone else in your tournaments will know that too? Ownership will be insane on that combination and makes it near impossible to ship without perfect combination)
Tier 1: Core Pitcher
- Tyler Glasnow – Tyler Glasnow is a ton easier to fit in on DK thanks to the the 4k Daniel Lynch mistake so I’m not going to overthink this one either and going to play the only real ace on the slate (sorry, Buehler). Glasnow has K rates over 36.7% to both sides of the plate with xISO’s below .130. While the Angels lineup is strong I’m taking the massive K upside to pair with Lynch, and if Glasnow gives up a couple runs in the process, I’m not worried about it as long as he gives me my 8+ K’s.
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Pitchers
(Pretty Meh Options especially when comparing to Lynch/Glasnow)
- Kenta Maeda – Shouldn’t be a 7.8k pitcher on talent but so far hasn’t put it all together but gets a nice rebound spot at home against a K happy Texas team. If you were looking to pay up for bats going Maeda over Glasnow would make some sense.
- Adam Wainwright – Despite the Mets’ offensive display last night, they are a team that hasn’t put the offense together, and coming to STL after Sunday Night Baseball isn’t the best timing for them. Also, solid pitching weather assuming they don’t start the game til after the T-Storms pass.
- Walker Buehler – Given the value of the Giants, people will be able to fit him in with Glasnow over Lynch. That won’t be my strategy but it’s “optimal” so I’d be remiss if I didn’t have him in the pitching rankings.
Tier 1: The Core Stacks
- Baltimore Orioles – Coors is going to be massive chalk with the DK algorithm forgetting to price up the Giants, but I’m going to head to Seattle where Erik Swanson is expected to take the bulk of the work in a bullpen game. The issues here are A) the Mariners bullpen outside the back end isn’t very good and B) they just threw 7 innings on Saturday and another 3 on Sunday. Pretty strong ask to get 9 from them today against an Orioles lineup that found it’s swag against the A’s over the weekend. Given the power from top-to-bottom I like them as a top stack at very little ownership.
- San Francisco Giants – Priced like they are in SF not like they are playing in Coors, not much analysis needed here as to why they grade out super well. Now, I might personally be fading this offense because of the very high ownership but I’d be doing a disservice if I didn’t put them in this tier where they belong on merit/price. It’d be a game-theory fade not a skill-based fade. (I say that but they are pretty injury riddled right now, if there is no La Stella and no Crawford I really lose what interest I’d have in this lineup)
Tier 2: The Not Quite Core Stacks
- N/A – With the 2 Tier 1 stacks there won’t be a Tier 2 stack for me on the slate tonight
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Stacks
- Colorado Rockies – With everyone focusing to the value of the Giants in Coors the Rockies should go a tad under owned (especially if Story sits). With no discount and Aaron Sanchez being not a gas can the Rockies just don’t jump off the page but Sanchez isn’t going to overpower you so there is upside with them.
- St. Louis Cardinals – Thunderstorms gonna get rid of the hot, sticky weather we currently have before first pitch but Joey Lucchesi is still nothing special and the Cardinals have the firepower, they’ve lacked for a decade vs LHP with Arenado, Goldschmidt, DeJong and Tyler O’Neill. Without Yadi, you can get away with using them as a secondary mini-stack as well.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – If Hendricks is actually just washed then the Dodgers will have a field day in Wrigley just smashing him and the bullpen around. I’m not sure Hendricks is done which is why I didn’t put them higher but if you think he is this is the last time you’ll get low ownership against him.
Top Players By Position
- JT Realmuto
- Sean Murphy
- Will Smith
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Trey Mancini
- Brandon Belt
- Ryan McMahon
- Rio Ruiz
- Brad Miller
- Nolan Arenado
- Maikel Franco
- Evan Longoria
- Paul DeJong
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Freddy Galvis
- Cedric Mullins
- Austin Hays
- Alex Dickerson
- Michael Conforto
- Charlie Blackmon
- Mitch Haniger
- Mookie Betts
- Bryce Harper
Highest Scoring Hitter: Paul Goldschmidt
Highest Scoring Pitcher: Tyler Glasnow
Biggest Bust Hitter: Byron Buxton
Biggest Bust Pitcher: Walker Buehler
Top Value Play: Paul DeJong