DOMINATE today’s DraftKings and FanDuel MLB GPP contests with these pitchers, stacks and one-off players!
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UPDATE: Woodruff has weaker lineup than expected, Frankie Montas unexpected chalk, I’m passing guy has horrific advanced stats. Baltimore more popular than expected but still staying. Best leverage on the slate in GPP’s is OAK and SEA stacks. Risky but where the ownership lowest with solid ceilings.
Tier 1: The Core Pitchers (these are pitchers who will be in the majority of my lineups)
- Austin Gomber (DK only) – Austin Gomber has posted DK scores of over 16.7 FP points in 6 of 9 starts this year illustrating a level of overall talent we normally don’t see in the 5.6k price point range. Gomber has a 20%+ strikeout rate to both sides of the plate and, despite pitching half his games in Coors, has an ISO under .200 to right-handed batters. When you combine this with the lack of talent in the Mets offense (Cameron Maybin is batting 3rd), he becomes a nice high-floor, solid-ceiling option. In large field tournaments, you could argue that he’s worth a fade since he doesn’t have GPP winning upside himself (his ceiling is around 25 DK points) and on the short slate raw points should be king. I could come around to this point of view if the ownership number starts climbing near 40-50% in tournaments but the floor/upside at his price combination at this price point is just better than anything else so he’s the top option on the slate on two pitcher sites.
Tier 2: Not Quite Core Pitcher
- Lance Lynn – Placing Lance Lynn at the top of Tier 2 is a split the baby ranking that really depends on what lineup the Cardinals are able to roll out. Dylan Carlson has been out the last couple games and, while he’s expected to return, I can’t count on it until I see it. Also, with the move to an AL park the Cardinals are able to add a DH and they have a couple candidates between Carlson (if he can’t play field), Carpenter or Nogowski. If we get a RH heavy lineup from the Cardinals, I’d be moving Lynn up to Tier 1 as his 33.3% K rate, .114 ISO and .233 wOBA are top notch. If the Cardinals are able to get 4-5 LHB’s in there then he’d slide to the middle/end of Tier 2 as his 22.2% K rate, .194 xISO leave a bit to be desired.
- Blake Snell – Coming off his gem against Colorado at home I expect Snell to be pretty popular against a weak Milwaukee lineup. While Snell has undeniable K upside, I’m still prone to fade Snell when he’s popular for a few reasons A) Pitch count – even when things went great last start, he still didn’t get to 100 pitches and B) He has fits of wildness that leads to lowering his QS opportunities. In fact, he only has one quality start on the season. With Milwaukee getting Yelich and Hiura into the lineup it’s stronger than it’s been in weeks. I’d personally rather roster Lynn over Snell but Snell does have the talent to win the slate.
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Pitchers
(The list is so long, I’m going to just touch on why these guys aren’t in higher Tier (in order of salary))
- Austin Gomber (FD) – See DK writeup for stats
- Brandon Woodruff– Been unreal this year but I just can’t pay top dollar going up against one of the best offenses in baseball in a good offensive park. He has GPP winning upside but I’m hoping Lynn gets close or beats him for less.
- Spencer Turnbull– Showed his upside last time out and this Cleveland lineup got much weaker with Franmil Reyes hitting the IL. The only real power threat left is Jose Ramirez but there is only so much one hitter can do.
- Sam Hentges – If you wanted to double punt SP or get crazy in large field tournaments and try to leverage Gomber, Hentges is a LHP going up against the Tigers who, despite a competent weekend against LHP, are still dead last in every metric by a ton.
Tier 1: The Core Stack
- Baltimore Orioles – Matt Shoemaker has enough brand recognition that the Orioles might not be the undisputed chalk option here but I love this offense’s upside. Shoemaker has been terrible this year allowing a .255 xISO to both sides of the plate with xwOBA’s over .350 (left-handed batters xWOBA is .428 lmao). Baltimore got Santander back late last week and now is super deep. Mullins, Hays, Mancini, Stewart, Santander and even Freddy Galvis are in prime position to shell him. We are starting to see the start of the summer weather pattern in Minnesota which causes wind to be blowing out and the ball to travel well. Baltimore’s biggest weakness as an offense against RHP this season has been the power but that should turn around closer to career averages as the weather warms up. Good spot to get in early before the masses hop on this offense.
Tier 2: The Not Quite Core Stacks
- Chicago White Sox – Kwang Hyun-Kim has gotten hilariously lucky this season against right-handed batters with an actual ISO allowed of .091 with an xISO of .217. Similar story in the wOBA department with an actual of .277 and expected wOBA allowed of .344. He isn’t getting any right-handed bats to swing and miss with only a 9.15% swinging-strike rate. With RH power bats in Abreu, Anderson, Moncada, Mercedes, and Vaughn the luck should end tonight.
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Stacks
- Oakland A’s – Kikuchi has power issues to right-handed bats with a .200 ISO allowed on the season and with Moreland out they should be able to get Canha, Pinder and Piscotty in with all the regulars.
- Seattle Mariners – Montas has been dreadful vs right-handed batters so far in 2021. While Seattle isn’t exactly the best offense in the world to take advantage, they do have Haniger and Kyle Lewis while Seager and Kelenic can hit all types of pitchers. The issue with this lineup is the lack of depth but if you are looking for something contrarian this is your best shot at it.
Top Players By Position
- Sean Murphy
- Yermin Mercedes
- Yasmani Grandal
- Jose Abreu
- Trey Mancini
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Chad Pinder
- Ryan McMahon
- Tommy Edman
- Yoan Moncada
- Josh Donaldson
- Jose Ramirez
- Tim Anderson
- Trevor Story
- Freddy Galvis
- Nelson Cruz
- Cedric Mullins
- Anthony Santander
- DJ Stewart
- Austin Hays
- Andrew Vaughn
- Mitch Haniger
- Ramon Laureano
Highest Scoring Hitter: Jose Abreu
Highest Scoring Pitcher: Lance Lynn
Biggest Bust Hitter: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Biggest Bust Pitcher: Blake Snell
Top Value Play: DJ Stewart
Slate Edge: DJ Stewart