DOMINATE today’s DraftKings and FanDuel MLB GPP contests with these pitchers, stacks and one-off players!
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Tier 1: The Core Pitchers (these are pitchers who will be in majority of my lineups)
- N/A – There are a ton of options at the top and the middle of the DK pricing range that I think are firmly in play for both cash and tournaments. As such, to give someone a Tier 1 spot just feels wrong. For me, a Core pitcher is someone I’d play over 60% of in an MME or 20 team script, and there just isn’t anyone that hits that threshold.
Tier 2: Not Quite Core Pitchers
- Kyle Gibson – First full slate of the year, and Kyle Gibson is the #1 option. I can’t say I would have ever expected this before the season started, but he’s been that good this year. Gibson has a 24.6% K rate against right-handed bats on the season thanks to a 27.56% swinging-strike rate on his slider. While he hasn’t been striking out a ton of lefties (because he’s only throwing that nasty slider 11% of the time to lefties), they are still not hitting him for power. Why Gibson makes #1 of Tier 2 is that I’m projecting the #1 pitchers’ umpire in all of baseball here and the roof closed, which are two things that make it much harder to hit HR’s while increasing strikeout upside. The price is much better on DK than FD. If you are on FD, the value isn’t as great, given the price difference.
- Trevor Bauer – Of the expensive options, I think Bauer is the best, but it’s not without risk. He’s only a -140 favorite against the Giants, which shows a) how good Alex Wood has been for the Giants and b) that the Giants offense has been better than expected. Bauer has been good himself, with right-handed bats just having no hope (38.9% K rate and a .112 xISO). Left-handers have had a little more success, which is why I’m not in super-love with him. With a .190 xISO and a 31.7% K rate on the season, makes it a tad more boom/bust here than you’d think. The Giants are finally healthy too, with Tauchman, Yastrzemski, Crawford and Dickerson all in there with major pop from the left side. If I’m paying up, it’s for Bauer. But if you want to play Coors, you can totally avoid the top end if you want to.
- Mike Minor – Any left-handed starter against Detroit gets you into Tier 2 automatically. In case you’ve been living under a rock so far this MLB season and haven’t played any LHP against the Tigers yet, you’ve been missing out. The Tigers strike out at an MLB leading 33.7% clip against LHP, while also posting a .080 ISO and a 58 wRC+. The next worst team is almost 50% better against LHP than the Tigers. A Gibson/Minor combination on DraftKings allows you to play whatever stacks you want.
- James Kaprielian – When you see a 27-year-old rookie, you assume that they must not have lived up to the hype. But in the case of Kaprielian, he was a top pitching prospect before losing two seasons to Tommy John and recovery. After that, the attention went away, but the stats at every level were still impressive, and he looked good in his MLB starting debut against Boston. The issues here are a) it’s a small sample size at anything above AA (17.1 IP above that level) and b) he’s coming off 8 days of rest, which could ruin the momentum he built up. That being said, this Angels team without Trout is weaker (especially if Ohtani gets the day off after pitching yesterday) and doesn’t have a whole lot of power. Combine that with a solid umpire and he’s a cheap pitcher, you can combine with a Bauer or with a Gibson or Minor and get all the bats you want.
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Pitchers
The list is so long; I’m going to just touch on why these guys aren’t in higher Tier (in order of salary)
- Tyler Glasnow – He’s been unreal this year, but Toronto is a strong lineup, and Dunedin has been a hitting paradise. That being said, Toronto is K happy vs. sliders, but when you make a mistake on one, it normally ends up over the fence. Tad boom/bust for me at his price tag to be Tier 2 or better.
- Aaron Nola – Much like Glasnow, it’s hard for me to pay the 11.6k asking price against the Boston Red Sox offense that is firing on all cylinders right now in anything other than an MME build.
- Marcus Stroman – Way too expensive vs. a Miami team that is getting healthier and for a guy who doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (How do you win a GPP without strikeouts on a slate this big?).
- Chris Paddack – I just don’t trust Paddack at all. The hook has been quick at times, and Seattle has shown an ability to make pitchers work and ruin upside. They’ve also been no-hit twice this season, so it can go very well if they aren’t on.
- Tyler Ivey – Good pitching prospect for the Astros, but I can’t figure out how deep he can go, and his funky motion makes him primed to give up a TON of stolen bases tonight if he gives up baserunners. That concern makes me wonder what the ceiling is, and if it’s a close game, he might get a hook before 5 innings.
Tier 1: The Core Stack
- Colorado Rockies – With all these expensive pitchers, there is a chance the Rockies go lower owned than you’d think, but I’m very interested. The Rockies offense is getting healthier with the returns of Blackmon and Cron, and they are going up against Seth Frankoff, who is quite terrible. Frankoff has been a journeyman his entire career, which has led him to 5 different MLB organizations and a 2-year stint in the KBO. Frankoff doesn’t strike out anyone (below 8 K/9) and walks a ton of hitters (over 6 BB per 9 innings). That combination in Coors Field just doesn’t work out a whole lot. Even with a quick hook, we then get into a heavily used Arizona bullpen (28 innings thrown in the last week). There are a lot of roads for this Rockies offense to be the best offense on the slate.
Tier 2: The Not Quite Core Stack
- Tampa Bay Rays – I feel like I write up the GPP article every time Anthony Kay is on the slate. But here we are again, stacking against Anthony Kay. Kay historically has been a train wreck to both sides of the plate, but so far this year, despite a 9.6% swinging-strike rate to RH hitters, he’s been able to limit the power output. I think that fairytale comes to an end tonight in the first inning, with Randy Arozarena taking him deep. That will only be the beginning as I like this lineup to chew him up and then get to the heavily used Toronto bullpen that has thrown 10.1 IP in the last three days (and 8.1 over the last two days). Lots of upside here too, getting a massive ballpark shift going from Tampa to the hitting paradise in Florida.
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Stacks
- Chicago Cubs – The Cardinals say Carlos Martinez is healthy; I’m always a skeptic because there are situations where he’s come back and pitched hurt just to pitch. If it goes wrong, he’ll give up tons of power, and the hitting conditions are primed for an offensive explosion. The Cardinals bullpen also walks a million batters, which doesn’t hurt.
- St. Louis Cardinals – Kyle Hendricks has been a Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde pitcher this year, going between good and terrible outings. The Cardinals lineup isn’t the deepest out there, but the Carlson/Goldschmidt/Arenado combination makes for a nice mini-stack. As mentioned in the Cubs section, the weather in STL is prime for hitting.
- Boston Red Sox – Nola is a great pitcher, but when you have an explosive offense on a large slate that will be unowned, it’s perfect for MME. (Note: Make sure JD Martinez is in LF first. I expect he will be, but if he’s out, I’d lower them a bit.)
- Kansas City Royals – If Mondesi is able to play (COVID protocols coming from AA different than AAA), I love the power/speed combination of the top of the order against Urena, who gives up power to everyone but especially left-handed bats. *UPDATE: Mondesi is OUT.
- Baltimore Orioles – Strasburg coming off the IL without a rehab start, so there is blowup potential here if he isn’t right.
- Atlanta Braves – Lineup isn’t deep, but Tyler Anderson can give up power to right-handed bats, and the weather in ATL is hot and muggy, perfect for fly balls to travel.
- Cincinnati Reds – I can’t say I’ve ever added a stack because of BvP before, but Winker/Suarez/Castellanos have combined for 6 HR’s in 32 AB’s against Houser, and it’s called Great American Smallpark for a reason.
Top MLB GPP Players By Position
- Sean Murphy
- Salvador Perez
- Mike Zunino
- Carlos Santana
- CJ Cron
- Yandy Diaz
- Ryan McMahon
- Whit Merrifield
- DJ LeMahieu
- Nolan Arenado
- Josh Fuentes
- Manny Machado
- Trevor Story
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Randy Arozarena
- Charlie Blackmon
- Ronald Acuna Jr.
- Kyle Schwarber
- Jorge Soler
- Nick Castellanos
- Ian Happ
- Dylan Carlson
Highest Scoring Hitter: Randy Arozarena
Highest Scoring Pitcher: Trevor Bauer
Biggest Bust Hitter: Mike Yastrzemski
Biggest Bust Pitcher: Aaron Nola
Top Value Play: Dylan Carlson
Slate Edge: Randy Arozarena
Hit me up on Twitter @TheSeigeDFS or visit the MLB Chat Room with any lineup questions!