DOMINATE today’s DraftKings and FanDuel MLB GPP contests with these pitchers, stacks and one-off players!
Tier 1: The Core Pitchers (these are pitchers who will be in majority of my lineups)
- Gerrit Cole – As long as Cole is near a 50% K rate vs left-handed batters he’s going to be a Core play every time out. While it’s definitely hard to fit some of the best stacks with him he’s worth figuring out the bats. This Texas team has been Jekyll and Hyde with the bat so far this season but they only have 2 hitters with an xISO over .200. It’s a weak lineup vs an elite pitcher and I’m not going to over think this.
Tier 2: Not Quite Core Pitcher
- N/A – Unless there is a mid-tier or cheap pitcher that I love on a slate when I have an expensive stud like Cole this tier will be empty because it’s hard to have Cole on most of my teams along with a 2nd expensive starter. Yu Darvish vs the Rockies team is a solid look and on most slates I’d be fine with paying up for him but Cole is better. Buehler can’t stop giving up HR’s and then when we get into the mid-tier whose the guy you really believe in? Kikuchi vs Detroit stands out but he’s closer to 8k now than 7k, is he a Tier 2 pitcher? Outside of him it’s Fried vs watered down Mets. Good option but is he better than the others?
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Pitchers
(Strong and Deep List)
- Walker Buehler – I’m not much of a Buehler fan because of Dave Roberts but the Dodgers desperately need wins so I don’t think we have as much concern about the quick hook here. Buehler also has given up a home run in each of his last four starts which is a tad concerning but as long as he’s not walking guys those are likely to be of the solo shot variety. The issue is he keeps giving up multiple HR’s a game. While I know that’s going to end at some point when Gerrit Cole is on the slate it’s a risk I don’t need to take
- Yu Darvish– like I mentioned in Tier 2, he would be a core pitcher in this spot on a lot of slates but Cole to me is just simply better so he gets the nod. That being said Darvish has struck out 36.6% of right-handed batters this year and the Rockies are full of them. If Darvish can get by Ryan McMahon he should have a very good outing. (If you are fading Darvish, McMahon makes for an incredible large field GPP one-off)
- Max Fried– Much like Maeda when he’s on he’s a 9k pitcher but he was awful before heading on the injured list. Fried has looked better since returning off the injured list but his horrific start has led him to having a reduced price. The biggest issue for Fried is the Mets’ everyday left-handed hitters Conforto and McNeil were put on the 10 Day IL today meaning it’s all but certain the Mets will have 7 or 8 right-handed batters against Fried. While those hitters will be of a lower quality this isn’t good news for Fried who has allowed a .253 ISO and .442 wOBA to RHH’s this year. Again, lot of that is noise from pre-IL but when you compare that to .071 ISO and .235 wOBA to left-handed batters having them would have been nice.
- Yusei Kikuchi – Kikuchi has been solid this year against both sides of the plate with xISO’s under .180 to both sides of the plate and sporting a 25%+ K rate as well. The Tigers are the worst team in MLB against LHP’s by far. The latest numbers show some improvement but that’s only because it couldn’t get worse. The Tigers have been striking out at a 33.8% clip (most in MLB), walking only 8% of the time and have an ISO of .067 vs LHP (dead last obviously) while posting a 55 wRC+. It’s so bad that I fully expect Kikuchi to be the SP2 chalk on DK and I get it. On FD, he makes for a cheaper pitching option you can risk to get better stacks.
Also MME Playable: Adbert Alzolay, Jon Lester, Jon Gray
Tier 1: The Core Stack
- Seattle Mariners – The hitting breakdown in terms of ownership is going to vary WIDELY between the sites today thanks to people wanting to jam two expensive pitchers on Draftkings if possible. On Draftkings, Seattle will be very popular because they are super cheap. While I love the offense on merit (more on that in a second), it’s tough to want to play them as the top stack as chalk. On FD, they should be much lower owned and that’s where I’m playing most of my Seattle exposure for that reason. With Kelenic now in the major leagues, Seattle 1-6 in the lineup have power/speed combination with five of those hitters. Casey Mize is one of the worst in the majors at holding on runners as he’s yet to have a stolen base attempt stopped against him. After Mize (who I will admit has been much better, only a 19.8% LD rate outstanding) you get the Tigers bullpen which is the worst. I love Seattle’s upside but this is a much stronger FD play than a DK play given ownership factor.
Tier 2: The Not Quite Core Stacks
- Los Angeles Angels – Hentges is a glorified opener for Cleveland having not gotten to 5 innings in any appearance despite actually pitching well his last time out against the Cubs. Even if he’s finally fully stretched out Hentges is in for a rough day here. Hentges has been absolutely smoked by RH bats to the tune of a .392 xISO and .435 xWOBA. With Rendon back, the Angels have tons of RH bats to roll out there with good contact skills and even the couple of lefties that get in there (Ohtani/Walsh) always have huge upside. I’m not projecting the Angels to be chalk yet but I think they’ll get some traction as the day moves along (and if they don’t this will be my big stand of the day).
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Stacks
- New York Yankees – After the weekend Aaron Judge had and with how bad Jordan Lyles is I expect the Yankees to be the highest owned stack on the slate. I totally get it but for me on a slate with these large top-heavy GPP’s I’m going to be getting a bit different to try and hit big. The Yankees bottom of the lineup is still quite terrible with the injuries/COVID absences so if Lyles can only give up 1 HR to Judge and Stanton then there are ways to win the slate without them.
- Chicago White Sox + Minnesota Twins – I put these teams together because they are playing each other but also are in the same situation. Both teams face beatable LHP’s in Happ and Keuchel and this game actually has the highest total on the entire slate! The issue is that the White Sox and Twins have both been hit by the injury bug. Are these teams in their current form strong and deep enough to win the slate? The good news is this isn’t a 12-15 game slate where the lack of HR power throughout the lineup would hurt you more. With a 8 game slate it will take less to win so these offenses have enough thump to do it. White Sox should be more popular than the Twins but both are good GPP stacks.
Top Players By Position
- Yermin Mercedes
- Austin Barnes
- Victor Caratini
- Jose Abreu
- Miguel Sano
- Jared Walsh
- Dylan Moore
- DJ LeMahieu
- Ryan McMahon
- Anthony Rendon
- Josh Donaldson
- Kyle Seager
- Tim Anderson
- Javier Baez
- Gio Urshela
- Jarred Kelenic
- Mitch Haniger
- Aaron Judge
- Mike Trout
- Nelson Cruz
- Justin Upton
- Kyle Lewis
- Andrew Vaughn
Highest Scoring Hitter: Anthony Rendon
Highest Scoring Pitcher: Gerrit Cole
Biggest Bust Hitter: Juan Soto
Biggest Bust Pitcher: Walker Buehler
Top Value Play: Jarred Kelenic (DK)/Andrew Vaughn (FD)
Slate Edge: Dylan Moore