DOMINATE today’s DraftKings and FanDuel MLB GPP contests with these pitchers, stacks and one-off players!
Make sure you tune into the Core 4 Livestream at 5pm eastern for the latest news and thoughts leading up to lock!
Update: Finally left the apartment and my god is the hitting weather in St. Louis great. Was supposed to be a high of 80 but was 85 when i was driving around the ballpark. Phillies called up Odubel Herrera shockingly and with Brad Miller playing in the OF they have 5 lefties against Waino. Waino out of GPP consideration and Phillies into Tier 1/2 discussion. Will discuss more on Core 4 livestream at 5:15 ET
Final Update: After all the information has come in, I’ll be completely fading the Astros. Don’t like the situation at all. Added the Phillies as a good option but also the Cardinals could benefit as well. Cardinals closer to a tier 3 stack for me. Still waiting on the Angels lineup but anything with Ohtani in it would make them a Tier 1/2 stack still right there with the Phillies. In chat from 6pm ET to lock if you have any questions!
FINAL FINAL Update: Trout, Ohtani and Rendon are all in, they have solidified their Tier 1 stack status in spite of not the world’s best umpire.
Tier 1: The Core Pitcher (these are pitchers who will be in the majority of my lineups)
- Corbin Burnes– The DFS sites surely were enjoying their weekend because no one priced Burnes anywhere close to correct. At only 11.1k on FD and 10.4k on DK they basically have made Burnes a mortal lock. Burnes this season has been absolutely absurd with a 14.79 K/9, 0 walks, 0.37 ERA, 0.20 WHIP and an xFIP of 1.25 so it’s been mostly skill. Sure, he’ll regress eventually but it’s not like the Marlins are this juggernaut offense that will put pressure on him. Burnes is a lock for me much like deGrom was on Friday.
Tier 2: Not Quite Core Pitcher
- N/A – The last slate I did I didn’t have a Tier 2 pitcher because all the options were terrible. Today we have the opposite problem. There are so many good pitchers it makes no sense to distinguish one from another. Trevor Rogers draws a fantastic matchup against the Brewers but doesn’t have the win equity to get into this tier. Julio Urias draws the Reds and while the K’s are there with his pitch count questions, is it worth giving him a bump over the other guys? Adam Wainwright draws a very right-handed heavy Phillies team (although weather is a hitting paradise). Shohei Ohtani has similar issues as Urias but tons of K upside against the Rangers. Basically, there are too many guys around the same in my rankings to move someone into tier 2.
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Pitchers
(Much stronger group than usual)
- Trevor Rogers– The Brewers lineup without Christian Yelich is exploitable and Trevor Rogers is the type of pitcher to make it happen. Rogers so far in 2021 has sported a 30% K rate to both sides of the plate and despite his amazing start has actually been unlucky vs RH batters giving up a .266 ISO on an xISO of .157. That being said, given the state of the Brewers, I’m not even sure if they can get more than 4 right-handers in this lineup. And despite a .409 BABIP against, Rogers has been elite against lefties, allowing only a .118 ISO on .040 xISO. Basically, Rogers should go toe-to-toe with Burnes and maybe even come out on top. Going to be a hell of a pitchers duel.
- Julio Urias – Need to see the Reds lineup first to see if India and Stephenson make it, but assuming they do, you are getting a very right-handed heavy lineup, which isn’t great. However, the good news is Urias has great stuff, and given how much the bullpen was used over the weekend, the leash might be a bit longer than usual giving him the QS and K upside that he sometimes lacks thanks to Dave Roberts. Should the lineup get more left-handed than I’m expecting, he becomes an even better option.
- Tyler Mahle – The case for Mahle is he’s actually a good pitcher. So far in 2021, he’s generated a 41.4% K rate vs LHB’s while holding them to a .025 xISO and a .127 wOBA in a very small sample this year. (Dodgers are projected to start 6 left-handed batters.) The problems for me are 1) There is no chance the .077 BABIP is sustainable, 2) His swinging strike rate of 15.03% indicates that strike out rate will regress big time (something closer to his 24.8% K rate vs LHP seems about right), and 3) Do you really want to play Mahle against the LA Dodgers even in this watered down form? I wouldn’t do it in single-entry, but as a MME pitcher, I think he’s a nice player to mix in.
- Shohei Ohtani – Has K upside against the Rangers that makes him a MME pitcher for your player pool. I personally don’t want to spend the money on him but he has ceiling.
- Austin Gomber – 2 SP sites only but I’m a huge believer in the talent and it doesn’t get better than pitching in San Francisco against a suddenly injury-riddled Giants team.
Tier 1: The Core Stack
- Los Angeles Angels – As long as the DFS sites make Ohtani ineligible to get hitting points on days he pitches and as long as he hits, there is going to be a huge edge in stacking the Angels on those days. If Ohtani can’t get anyone fantasy points there is value in stacking around him. Why? Ohtani in that case becomes a free batter for your stack you don’t have to pay for. If Ohtani scores a run when your guy bats him in, no one is getting those Ohtani points so you are gaining on the field. If Ohtani drives in your runner, you get the run points and no one is getting the Ohtani hit/rbi points. As a result, by stacking the Angels today with players around Ohtani, you are getting a free hitter. In addition, it’s a nice spot going up agianst Jordan Lyles who has been a below average MLB pitcher for a long time. Much like Burnes is a lock, Angels far and away the #1 stack for me.
Tier 2: The Not Quite Core Stacks
- Houston Astros – The Astros will likely be the chalk up against Justus Sheffield, but I’m not as confident in the field. Sure, Sheffield has yet to prove to be a good pitcher at the MLB level, but even if Sheffield gives up 3-4 runs in the first few innings this isn’t the bullpens of old that were just terrible. Graveman/Middleton/Montero is a strong back end and Seattle isn’t afraid to use them if the game is close. Who the umpire is here will dictate a lot, but right now they are significantly behind the Angels for me.
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Stacks
- Los Angeles Dodgers – There are so many good options I’m going to attack the team with the bullpen that has been highly suspect this year. While Mahle has been good this season, he’s also been prone to left-handers torching him and the Dodgers will likely roll out six of them tonight. If the Dodgers get to Mahle their bullpen has been a train wreck – as mentioned above – so lots of potential GPP winning upside.
- Chicago Cubs – Atlanta is one of the better hitting environments on the entire slate so it’s hard to argue that a low-owned Cubs team is bad in MME type formats. Also, have the power to take advantage if Morton is shaky and the Braves bullpen has been inconsistent at best this season.
Top Players By Position
- Wilson Contreras
- JT Realmuto
- Martin Maldonado
- Jared Walsh
- Freddie Freeman
- Yuli Gurriel
- Max Muncy
- Ryan McMahon
- Jose Altuve
- Alex Bregman
- Kyle Seager
- Rougned Odor
- Corey Seager
- Carlos Correa
- Didi Gregorius
- Mookie Betts
- Mike Trout
- Bryce Harper
- Ian Happ
- AJ Pollock
- Austin Slater
- Dylan Carlson
- DJ Stewart
Highest Scoring Hitter: Corey Seager
Highest Scoring Pitcher: Corbin Burnes
Biggest Bust Hitter: Yordan Alvarez
Biggest Bust Pitcher: Jose Urquidy
Top Value Play: Dylan Carlson
Hit me up on Twitter @TheSeigeDFS or visit the MLB Chat Room with any lineup questions!