DOMINATE today’s DraftKings and FanDuel MLB GPP contests with these pitchers, stacks and one-off players!
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Tier 1: The Core Pitcher (these are pitchers who will be in majority of my lineups)
- Aaron Civale – The pitching on this main slate is quite ugly (as you’ll see as we go throughout this), so paying 10.1k for Civale quickly becomes more palatable. Civale appears to have taken a leap against RHB’s this year, generating a 30.8% K rate against them while allowing a .099 xISO and a .263 xWOBA this season. The White Sox projected lineup has six right-handers, which helps a lot. The negative in this match-up is that Civale hasn’t shown much improvement against left-handed batters as he’s given up a .208 xISO against them on only a .125 BABIP, which indicates it could get worse (his .188 BABIP vs. RHH’s also screams regression longer term). On most slates, Civale would be a pass at this price, but on this one with a great pitcher’s umpire in Will Little, he’s worth the pay-up money. (Note: This game has been PPD)
Tier 2: Not Quite Core Pitcher
N/A – Remember when I said the pitching would get quite ugly. Well, here we are. After Civale, there is such a drop-off; I don’t have anyone inside Tier 2. Mahle at 9.5k is awfully expensive against a contact heavy team, and paying 19.6k for two starters on this slate is tough. Kluber has been awful, even if the Braves lineup is watered down. Davies at 8.8k? Ya, no chance. Ian Anderson vs. the Yankees? Mitch Keller vs. Detroit is interesting, but do I trust him? Hell no. Merrill Kelly has been bad, although he might have GPP upside. Michael Wacha with a hitter’s umpire? I have no idea what to do with David Peterson, who followed up his awful start vs. Philly with a gem. Garrett Richards actually is probably the closest pitcher to this tier, but I can’t just do it.
Moral of the story? After Civale, every pitcher on this slate has lots of warts.
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Pitchers
Don’t have full faith in any of these guys, but these are the candidates.
- Garrett Richards – As I mentioned above, Garrett Richards is probably the #2 pitcher for me on this slate, which says more about the slate than him. After getting shelled all of camp and in his season debut (where I was ready for my Red Sox to cut him), he’s come back with two solid outings against Baltimore and Minnesota. His fastball/slider combination is very ideal for this right-handed heavy Toronto team (6-7 RHH’s). Toronto historically has been a train wreck against sliders, and the personnel has changed, but the numbers haven’t. Since 2019, only Marcus Semien and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. swing and miss at less than league average against sliders. The issue? Richards himself hasn’t exactly generated a ton of swinging strikes so far this year, only sporting a 13.33% swinging-strike rate (and this was after a 16.11% rate in 2020). So, while I can see a road to success, I can see how it goes very wrong, as well.
- Tyler Mahle – The case for Mahle is he’s actually a good pitcher. So far in 2021, he’s generated a 41.4% K rate vs. LHB’s while holding them to a .025 xISO and a .127 wOBA in a very small sample this year. (Arizona is projected to start six left-handed batters.) The problems for me are: 1) there is no chance the .077 BABIP is sustainable, 2) his swinging strike rate of 15.03% indicates that strikeout rate will regress big time (something closer to his 24.8% K rate vs. LHP seems about right), and 3) do you really want to pay 19.6k combined for your two starting pitchers on a slate with TONS of high upside bats vs. bad pitchers? I struggle to see how paying up for both is the optimal play in tournaments, but maybe if the right value opens up, it’s the way to go. And in MME, it’s absolutely worth a try on some teams.
- Mitch Keller – More of a by default ranking, he’s going up against the Tigers, which provides upside in large-field tournaments if he has it working. However, with Keller, those days are simply few and far between.
Tier 1: The Core Stack
- Boston Red Sox – While Trent Thornton will likely be the opener for this game, Anthony Kay is expected to be the bulk man and is the pitcher I’m looking forward to targeting. Kay has been up since 2019, and in those 38.1 career IP, he has posted an ERA of 5.87, an 18.8% K rate, while allowing a 31.9% hard-contact rate. This Red Sox lineup has a ton of right-handed power up and down the lineup to make him pay.
Tier 2: The Not Quite Core Stack
- Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays offense got out of its funk last night, attacking the KC pen early and often after yet another terrible Brad Keller start. Now, they face Jakob Junis, who is an average MLB starter at best. If Junis doesn’t do great, they’ll get 3-4 innings against a depleted Royals bullpen (which isn’t that great, to begin with) to tack on more runs. This stack feels like the highest floor of the bunch on this slate.
Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Stacks
- Cincinnati Reds – There are so many good options. I’m going to attack the team with the bullpen that has been highly suspect this year, had to pitch some extra innings to finish yesterday’s game before today’s and is in a small ballpark. With no Moustakas, the Reds won’t be highly owned but provide a huge boom upside still in that park.
- Chicago Cubs – I’m not a David Peterson believer, and in his first start of the season, he got shelled by this lineup for 6 R, 7 H’s in only 4+ innings. The second start was a gem with 10 K’s over 6 IP. While he could be dominant again, we’ve seen the bad, and given his great start last time out, the Cubs should be low-owned and provide a ton of pop from the right side of the plate with Bryant, Baez, and Contreras.
Top MLB GPP Players By Position
- Willson Contreras
- Christian Vazquez
- Alejandro Kirk
- Carlos Santana
- Freddie Freeman
- Anthony Rizzo
- Josh Rojas
- Jeff McNeil
- Niko Goodrum
- Rafael Devers
- Kris Bryant
- Cavan Biggio
- Xander Bogaerts
- Javier Baez
- Eugenio Suarez
- JD Martinez
- Alex Verdugo
- Austin Meadows
- Jesse Winker
- Franchy Cordero
- Brandon Nimmo
- Bryan Reynolds
- Michael Conforto
Highest Scoring Hitter: Rafael Devers
Highest Scoring Pitcher: Tyler Mahle
Biggest Bust Hitter: Aaron Judge
Biggest Bust Pitcher: Corey Kluber
Top Value Play: Franchy Cordero
Hit me up on Twitter @TheSeigeDFS or visit the MLB Chat Room with any lineup questions!