Seige’s MLB GPP Breakdown – 4/2

DOMINATE today’s DraftKings and FanDuel MLB GPP contests with these pitchers, stacks and one-off players!

Make sure you tune into the Core 4 Livestream at 5pm eastern for the latest news and thoughts leading up to lock!

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Pitching Breakdown

Tier 1: The Core Pitcher (these are pitchers who will be in majority of my lineups)

1. Pablo Lopez – We saw on Opening Day: it’s quite clear pitchers are going to be eased into the season, with the longest start across all the games being 6.2 IP (only 11 starters even saw the start of the sixth inning). That means I’m way less likely to be paying up at the top for expensive pitching as it’s tough for them to get there in that short period of time. Instead, I’m going to look for a combination of getting me 6 IP with solid K upside. Much like Sandy Alcantara yesterday, I’m projecting a huge breakout for Pablo Lopez. He’s priced in the cheap tier for a pitcher. While his K rate last year vs. LHH was only 14.7%, his changeup has shown MASSIVE improvements this spring, and I’m banking on that translating here. 6 IP, 1-2 ER and 6 K’s is the goal here.

Tier 2: Not Quite Core Pitchers

1. Trevor Bauer – I’m not one to pay up for pitching (especially when it’s in Coors), but Bauer is the guy I’m willing to make an exception for. Bauer does not like being babied (if he had stayed with the Reds, they were gonna let him pitch every fourth day), so he’s one I could see getting through 7 IP. This Rockies team, while it has some thump, does present a ton of K upside. The risk is here, but given he’s in Coors, I’m expecting lower ownership, which makes him worth the gamble. 

2. Yusei Kikuchi – Kikuchi presents a boom/bust option for us for only 6k on DraftKings. Kikuchi, when he’s on, can strike out guys with the best of them and limit power (.113 xISO in 2020 vs. RHH and .039 xISO vs. LHH). But when it’s going poorly, he’ll walk the bases loaded and then give up a single, which can be quite frustrating. On most slates, he’d be a Tier 3 pitcher, but on this one, he gets a bump up.

Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Pitchers 

Don’t really love any of these guys, but these are the candidates.

1. Blake Snell – Solid floor but way overpriced, given what we saw with the quick hook on Yu Darvish; will have to be super-efficient to pay off this price tag. 

2. Jesus Luzardo – I suspect Luzardo will be pretty chalky, given his skill-set and the ballpark, but I’m not wild about attacking Houston’s offense. This is a deeper lineup than last year, and Luzardo has still shown to be pretty inconsistent. 

3. Cristian Javier – Personally, I’d roster Javier over Luzardo. He had a very solid 30.3% K rate in 2020 vs. RHH’s and did a great job limiting power to them, as well. Yes, we have to worry about Matt Olson and Mitch Moreland, but every pitcher has potential landmines. 

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Hitting Breakdown

Tier 1: The Core Stack

1. Los Angeles Dodgers – I HATE recommending chalk, but I’d be doing a disservice here if I didn’t. Senzatela is a better pitcher than most think, but even with his improved slider, he only struck out 11.3% of left-handed batters and 16.3% of righties. Against this strong Dodgers lineup, if you aren’t striking them out, you are asking them to make outs via contact. And in Coors, that combination just doesn’t seem very likely. Look to see if the Dodgers add a left-handed bat like Edwin Rios, who would make a nice GPP play if they do.

Tier 2: The Not Quite Core Stack

1. Chicago White Sox – I’m expecting the Padres to draw a TON of ownership once again, so I’m going to pick on Andrew Heaney in GPP’s. The White Sox are LOADED with right-handed power bats, and Heaney last year gave up a .244 xISO to them with a .343 xWOBA. With solid hitting conditions in LA, I’m willing to attack them at reduced ownership than the Padres. (Think even price neutral the White Sox have more power upside than the Padres in this matchup.)

Tier 3: Mass-Multi Entry Stacks

1. San Diego Padres – Chalky but good matchup vs. Merrill Kelly.

2. Miami Marlins – Park conditions are not ideal, as Marlins Park (ya, that’s not the name, but IDK the new one off top of my head) suppresses power, and the weather is not supposed to be extremely hitter-friendly. However, Ryan Yarbrough has blow-up equity, so at 1-2%, I’d try.

3. Colorado Rockies – It’s Coors Field offense at what could be its lowest ownership of the year. Hard to just completely ignore.

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Top Players By Position

Catcher

1. Will Smith
2. Victor Caratini
3. Yasmani Grandal

First Base

1. Jose Abreu
2. Eric Hosmer
3. Jesus Aguilar

Second Base

1. Jose Altuve
2. Wilmer Flores
3. Ryan McMahon

Third Base

1. Alex Bregman
2. Anthony Rendon
3. Yoan Moncada

Shortstop

1. Corey Seager
2. Fernando Tatis Jr.
3. Tim Anderson

Outfield

1. Mookie Betts
2. Cody Bellinger
3. Andrew Vaughn
4. Luis Robert
5. Garrett Cooper
6. Tommy Pham
7. Austin Slater
8. Taylor Trammell

Highest Scoring Hitter: Cody Bellinger
Highest Scoring Pitcher: Trevor Bauer
Biggest Bust Hitter: Randy Arozarena
Biggest Bust Pitcher: Blake Snell
Top Value Play: Andrew Vaughn

Hit me up on Twitter @TheSeigeDFS or visit the MLB Chat Room with any lineup questions!

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