Louis Cangiano shows us how to utilize these stats and conditions when constructing proper MLB DFS lineups!
In my opinion, three of the most important stats to monitor (in order to succeed in MLB DFS) are wind, weather and stadium factors. I know, wind and weather are basically the same, but for this article, we’re going to separate them. These stats are extremely important in determining home run potential for a given player or team stack. Any viable advantage is worth looking into when making lineups. I have found that going with the wind – in a favorable stadium – is a strategy you should stick to always. How do you do that?! Let’s break it down into three separate categories: Stadium Factor Stats, Wind, and lastly, Weather.
MLB DFS Stadium Factor Stats
Okay, before we start, I am going to include the most recent stadium factor numbers for the top 10 hitters’ parks below:
Now, you’re probably asking yourself, “How do I read these numbers?!” To me, one of the most commonly looked at stats in this area is the “runs average” stat, which is highlighted above. This number tells you how many runs a stadium is averaging per game. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY, we want to know how many home runs a stadium is averaging. These numbers are under the HR category above.
Stadiums you’ll always see at the top are: Coors Field, Globe Life Park, Camden Yards, etc. Later in this article, I will mention why stadiums such as Coors and Camden get an additional boost. But basically, they are a perfect storm between a favorable stadium and advantageous weather. Monitor stadium factor information. Trends will emerge – you’ll hear me say this a lot!
To me, DFS success is all about finding trends in stats and no better place to analyze than a stat most people don’t analyze; they just think they know. Someone says, “Yankee Stadium is a hitters paradise.” Yes, of course it is, but verify that with statistical backing because I’ll tell you these stats change. Be on top of the game and know all of the information: Weather, Wind and Stadium Factor Trends. You’ll have the edge.
How much can the wind really affect the game? The answer, a lot. Take a look at a replay of any game at Wrigley Field with winds blowing out to either left or right at 10+ MPH. It’s no coincidence certain places like Chicago have more wind than others. I guess that’s why they call it the “Windy City.” Know this, and use it. More information is never a bad thing; 10 minutes prior to lock, check this site. I have been using this site for years and it has yet to fail. Just remember, we’re looking for winds above 10 MPH to ideally left or right field.
**Note: Oakland has the largest stadium in the league and always shows wind. While the A’s can crush the ball, I tend to ignore wind stats in Oakland. I believe they do have a new stadium coming, but I have yet to assess that new situation**
These are little things you must come to know to fully take advantage of weather for MLB DFS. Here’s one more; the San Francisco Giants always have wind at home because it’s on the bay, but with that said, their HR numbers are horrible at .691 HR per game. They’re actually the worst in the league. Know your stadiums, know your weather – trends like these will emerge.
Weather is probably the most important stat for MLB DFS. While Stadium factor stats and wind can indicate advantages in terms of the long ball, general weather stats are important for one main reason. Will this game happen?
MLB has more postponed games than any other sport. Also, it’s important to note, a baseball is more likely to fly deeper and higher in warm, humid weather. Places like Baltimore and Texas, you’ll see the ball fly. High altitude in Coors Field can be another target for the long ball. Why is Coors field a Hitter’s Paradise? Because it’s the perfect storm between high altitude and a favorable stadium. Coors has the closest outfield dimensions in the whole league.
“So Louie, how do I judge whether or not a game will be postponed or delayed?”
Good question. Personally, every situation is subjective. Precipitation percentages over 40% tend to get my attention, but percentages above 70% result in complete fades for me. Checking Doppler radar to see where the clouds are and how quickly they are moving is important to know as well. Following Twitter weather personalities such as Mark Paquette is key to keeping up-to-date on the most recent info. Twitter is the best medium for DFS information…Use it!
Last little note. You must remember, when checking the weather, teams could potentially be in a dome. Cities with domes include: Seattle, Miami, Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, Houston and Toronto. Good luck to all!
Remember to follow me on Twitter @JaguarDFS
Did you miss my MLB DFS Batting Order Strategy article? Click the link!