Louis Cangiano shows us how to utilize these stats and conditions when constructing proper MLB DFS lineups!
On Tuesday Afternoon, we went over the importance of monitoring weather, wind and stadium factors for success in MLB DFS. Today, we’re going to go over all of the other relevant stats including: BvP (Batter vs. Pitcher), splits, game logs, teams stats and player stats.
BvP (Batter vs. Pitcher)
Batter vs. Pitcher is in my opinion the most important stat to monitor. Yes, you’ll hear me say later on in this article, “recent success > BvP stats anyday”, which is true. It just doesn’t take away from the importance of monitoring BvP stats every night. First, what is the BvP stat? BvP stands for Batter vs. Pitcher. These numbers are a compilation of career numbers between a starting pitcher and the nine batters that he is expected to face in his upcoming start. For example, Miguel Cabrera is batting .300 against Yankees Starter, J.A. Happ, totaling four home runs over 162 career at bats. These numbers indicate how well certain players see certain pitchers. So, do people hate the BvP stat? Yes, many will discredit it. Do people criticize me for using this stat? Yes, sometimes they do. Do I understand why? No, I don’t. This stat has pointed me towards some of my greatest DFS lineups. Quick story, in the 2016 DraftKings WFBBC I noticed that the Mets were killing Jeremy Hellickson and facing him for the 4th time in the calendar year. Players such as: Cespedes, Walker, Cano, Reyes/ Granderson (I think, I kind of forgot the full stack) we’re all showing great prior numbers when matching up against Hellickson. Long story short, the BvP’s clearly pointed towards a Mets four man stack as their 1-4 batters were batting a combined .320 + BA against Hellickson with a solid amount of homeruns. Then, when Neil Walker had a baby girl four days prior to the WFBBC, I knew this narrative would take me to a five man Mets stack. I’m a sucker for a solid narrative – 172 points later, I came in 6th place totaling $100,000 in prize money. While I understand that following small sample sizes for BvP stats can be risky, you still need to be monitoring this stat and investing in BvP advantages. This is a viable and useful MLB DFS stat – don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
Man, do I love checking out the splits page! What does this page have? Good question! This page has the stats that are separated into typically two categories (sometimes more) – Home/Away, Lefty/Righty, Grass/Astroturf, Day/Night. This page will even give you splits stats on categories that are a little less black and white. For example, how a batter does in a given lineup slot – lead off, clean up, ninth, etc. monitoring increases/decreases, surges or irregularities within these stats is a crucial skill. If Detroit’s starter, Matthew Boyd is allowing five more runs on the road than at home, you need to know that! If Didi Gregorius is hitting .360 in the lead off slot but .203 in the clean up spot, you need to know that too! An excess of information is never a bad thing. Use the tools that you have available to you.
Game logs are an easy and quick way to check the recent play/success of a given player. I typically check game logs before considering any pitcher, or batter for that matter. Baseball is a sport of muscle memory, you’ll hear me say that a lot. If you didn’t hit for the last three games, that’s a red flag that the player is not seeing the ball well. Game logs are oddly important to me. I won’t say that I never roster players with poor game logs leading up to my slate but I will say that I am heavily deterred when a player has poor recent game logs even if the BvP’s, splits and matchup are in his favor. Anything below a .230 BA over a week of games if concerning. Try to always roster a hot player over a cold player with impressive recent stats from years back. Trust me this is a common decision that I have to make. Recent success > BvP stats any day.
Team Stats vs. Player Stats
Team stats might be the most underrated stat to monitor. I like to see the differential from day to day. I also like to filter the team stats page to only show stats from the last seven days. I find that this is the best way to roster the hottest hitters. Finding the perfect storm with favorable; BvP’s, Splits (or the most important ones anyway), Stadium / wind / weather, recent game logs and lastly, matchup is our goal on any given slate. Player stats can be useful in deciding what part of the lineup you’d like to stack. Remember, please don’t stray from the stack strategy too far. The edge doesn’t lie in finding a new or alternative strategy, your edge is most active when you use the existing, proven strategies correctly and uniquely. Look at me getting all deep. Good luck to all and let’s hope we have baseball back sooner rather than later!
Remember to follow me on Twitter @JaguarDFS