Get into the mind of Jedi as he dives into several MLB DFS strategy issues for YOUR success!
Well, you are excited about 2021 Major League Baseball. Your bankroll is secure, and you have world-class MLB DFS content at your fingertip. You head to DraftKings, sort the site using the tournament tab and a hundred dollar max entry fee. Just like that, sitting at the top of the page is the MLB $400K Relay Throw contest with $100K going to first. The cost to enter is $15. You decide to enter three times to increase your odds. A few weeks later, your bankroll has been devastated. Let us examine where you went off the rails.
MLB $400K Relay Throw – $15
Simply put, contests like the MLB $400K Relay Throw are designed to keep the sharks happy. It’s a 150 max lineup tourney that all of the industries large players like to enter. You will frequently see a guy with a single bullet take this one down, but that is not the norm. Besides it being a 150 Max entry, it also has a very large field at 30K plus entries. So, you not only go up against highly tweaked optimizer lineups, you have to contend with many thousands of well-informed players just like yourself.
Then there is the contest structure itself. By using a plug-in or doing some simple math, you will quickly see this is a top-heavy contest. First place receives 25% of the total payout and the top ten just over 44%. If you are constantly shooting for the moon, chances are you will burn up upon reentry. Can we do better?
MLB $100K FOUR-SEAMER – $4
This is a long-time favorite of many an experienced player. For eighty bucks, you can hand build or fire up Fantasy Cruncher and pop out twenty lineups to really cover some ground. Yes, you are still playing against a mountain of guys in the normal version of the Four-Seamer. Generally, the size is just under 30K entries (there will be smaller versions depending on the slate), but the difference is you have as many bullets as the guy next to you. First place will receive only 10% of the total payout and the top ten only 28%. It’s a Min Cash 2.0X tourney, with the top 24% of finishes doubling their money. First place takes $10K today. But what if you want to even the playing field even more with smaller entry fields?
MLB $10K Home Plate – $20
If you want to play about the same amount every slate and keep it under $100, consider the Home Plate. This is a three max entry with a top prize of $1K. The field size is a winnable 588. First place takes home 10% of the total and the top ten under just under 39%. Min Cash is 2.0X, and 23% of finishes pad the bankroll. Yes, the sharks play in this one also, but I tend to think of them as guppies when I have the same three bullets they do. Disclaimer: When we crush the guppies tonight, no actual aquatic life will be harmed.
If you have a large bankroll and want to take a shot downfield at larger payouts every night, it’s perfectly fine. Just balance your play with safer bets and include a couple of smaller field tournaments. Optimizers will get smarter and smarter, so play the large fields now! Don’t stop believing, hold on to that feeling! As the season progresses, play many more single and three entry tourneys. Blend your nightly spend with cash games. That will keep you in the game longer and hopefully make you more profitable.
If I had a nickel for every time I heard a guy in chat say he was on his last week playing DFS unless something big happens, I wouldn’t have a day job.
Good luck this year…Peace, and as always, stay safe out there.
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