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Miss today’s MLB DFS Coaching Sessions, or just want to revisit them? Here are full transcripts of everything we covered!
Bullpen (Phil Backert)
Phil Backert: The Rockies have allowed 13 home runs over the last seven days which is the highest in baseball during this pan. Lefties are slugging .510 and righties are slugging .570 since August 1.
Phil Backert: The Tigers are not missing any bats as they have a low swinging strike rate of 9.9 percent over the last seven days. Their xFIP is 5.41 and they have allowed seven home runs during this span.
Phil Backert: The Marlins have allowed the highest flyball percentage over the last seven days at 45.9 percent. This has led to four home runs during this span. Since August 1, lefties have hit 15 bombs and righties have hit 16 home runs.
Hitting (Benny Ricciardi)
going to talk about the differences in September baseball for DFS today
Benny Ricciardi: OK
So September is an interesting month for MLB DFS
The expansion of rosters makes things a bit different than during the regular season
Benny Ricciardi: Teams have a lot more arms in the bullpen and a lot more position players to mix in with the regulars
Benny Ricciardi: For teams that are out of the playoff hunt, we tend to see pitches not go as deep into the games, because teams have tons of arms to use now. We also tend to see some teams sit their regulars if they are out of it to give some of the young cal ups a bigger chance to play
This is both good and bad
It’s bad because starting pitchers throwing an inning or two less means lower ceilings.
Benny Ricciardi: It’s bad because they tend to sub out regulars a little more often and that means fewer ABs
IT’s good, because a lot of these kids are near min price
Benny Ricciardi: We will have a lot of opportunities to find cheap punts now with young kids in the lineups, so that’s the upside
AS for the good teams in the playoff race, things are a tad different
We tend to see aces go a bit deeper in close games
Benny Ricciardi: These teams need these wins for seeding.
Benny Ricciardi: We also tend to see these hitters play the whole game with the caveat that the game remains close
The Good teams are tougher to stack at this point in the season unless you get a situation like the Red Sox/Twins today where both sides could put up big numbers
Benny Ricciardi: The Regulars on good teams tend to be playing everyday, but when and if they do go off and have a huge lead, that’s when the manager subs out all the regulars and you lose that last AB or two
Benny Ricciardi: It’s not the worst thing, because you probably got a bunch of production already to get yourself to the point where the regulars get subbed out on god teams, but it’s still a loss of an AB or two for multiple players as these tend to be wholesale changes when and if the scores get ugly
Benny Ricciardi: We don’t have to worry about this the rest of the season, because rosters are smaller, meaning less arms in the bullpen to chew up innings and less bats on the bench that managers have to play with.
Sure some guys do get subbed out, mostly for platoon splits
Benny Ricciardi: but at this time of year, we see a ton of 7th inning defensive replacements and that means ta least 1 less at bat, if not more
This all making sense to your guys so far?
Benny Ricciardi: OK, so let’s talk about some examples here
Jacob DeGrom plays for a team fighting fr playoffs today
If he goes less than 7, I’d be shocked
Benny Ricciardi: Same with Mike Clevinger. Currently they are the 5 spot for the playoffs, and this is a great spot for him
I would expect the Indians to ride him hard as they need the wins
same can be said for Scherzer on the other side of the Mets game
Benny Ricciardi: on the flip side, I wouldn’t;t touch Mitch Keller of the Pirates today despite the good matchup
The Pirates are out of it
and likely to have a big lead
I would expect a quick hook for him, which means a low ceiling
even if the game ends up as Vegas expects
Benny Ricciardi: Remember too, with an influx of cheap value bats, it’s a lot easier to pay up for these stud pitchers late in the year too
Benny Ricciardi: WE mentioned it already, but the Red Sox Twins game is a good one to look for bats
both teams are still alive in the playoff hunt
and both pitchers suck
Benny Ricciardi: if both teams are going back and forth scoring runs, it’s not going to offer either manager the chance to really sit and rest his big boppers
Benny Ricciardi: The Yankee game is not on the main slate, but they are a big favorite projected to win by a couple runs and a game like that for a team that will need to keep playing starters to fight for seeding is the type of game a manager looks to steal a few innings off for his studs and therefore a couple less ABs
Remember, not only are the players you use important today, but which teams to play and avoid
Benny Ricciardi: I’ll be on livestream later with DC tonight and I am going to write up my hitter breakdown as soon as we are done here, so you guys will get more of my favorite plays for the day in those articles, but I wanted to take the time here to kind of lay out my mindset for September DFS Baseball as it is a little trickier than the rest of the regular season.
Cash Game Breakdown