Miss today’s MLB DFS coaching sessions, or just want to revisit them? Here’s a full transcript of everything we covered!
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Bullpen (Phil Backert)
Phil Backert: Not surprising, but the Orioles have picked up where they left off in the first half and that is struggling. The unit has allowed five home runs in the second half and a fly ball percentage of 44.9 percent. They have a low swinging strike percentage of 7.8 percent.
Phil Backert: Pitching in Colorado has led to bad results for the Rockies unit. To start the second half, the bullpen has allowed four home runs with opponents batting .388.
Phil Backert: The Brewers are struggling to start the second half as the unit has allowed a hard hit percentage of 47.1 percent which has led to four home runs. Opponents are also batting .352.
Phil Backert: We picked on the White Sox bullpen in the first half and that hasn’t stopped being effective in to start the second half. The unit is allowing a hard hit percentage of 43.9 percent, opponents batting average of .333 and an xFIP of 6.09.
Hitting (Benny Ricciardi)
what’s up guys
give me a minute to tweet out that we are starting and then I’ll get into it
If you guys have any questions or things you want me to discuss, let me know
ok, so let’s talk about today a little
We do have a Coors field game, so that obviously is something to look at
The pitchers in the nightcap, which is the second game of the day between them are weak
I honestly think we can look at basically everyone in this game as viable, but remember you will likely have some regulars sitting due to the double header
I also think this opens up value as will likely have some back ups starting game 2 at low prices
D-Rod sucks against lefties for SF and gets a huge negative park shift
Chi Chi Gonzalez is a AAAA pitcher who hasn’t;t been good when called up for a couple innings at the MLB level
BennyRicciardi: we don’t have a Vegas total due to the late start and likelihood of the lineups coming out late, but my guess is it ends up in the 11-12 range and both teams are amongst the higher projected ones on the day
The Red Sox and Indians also project well today, both over 6 run team totals currently
I much prefer the Red Sox to the Indians if stacking
But I don’t think looking at either team for bats is dumb
Devers stands out most on Boston
Jordan Luplow crushes lefties, so he is very interesting play for the Indians
JD Martinez, Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, J-Ram, Lindor, Santana are al guys who made the write up today which will be up a little after lunchtime
The team I think is sneaky today is the Dodgers
Eflin has been falling apart, which is not unexpected after the hot start
Even now his 3.7 ERA is a full run below the 4.7 xFIP and the 4.7 is more in line with his career ERA and xFIP, so I expect that to adjust upward
It has the last few games as he has given up runs and ben hit hard
He is also a guy with an elevated HR/9 and sucks against lefties
That’s bad news against a Dodgers team with so many lefties to fear.
Bellinger and Muncy are my favorites
but Verdugo, Pederson, seamer all in play too
any love for the White Sox or Braves?
BennyRicciardi: So I want to like more White Sox against Junis, but really Moncada is the only guy I have interest in
You could talk me into Abreu, but more on FD as 1B is loaded and I have guys I like more on DK
On FD you can fit in multiple 1B players, so he’s more in play there
Really though I don’t expect a weak offense to do much
The Braves I have some interest in lefties
Houser kid is not bad, but the splits definitely favor lefties so far
He is a GB pitcher, so not ideal for stacking against and looking for HRs
Still Freddie Freeman is elite and one of my favorite plays on the day
Guys like McCann and Markakis from the left side are also solid for mini stacking purposes
I like the Angels a lot today too and people are overlooking them
BennyRicciardi: Framber Valdez is a big prospect, but he’s sucked on the mound so far
He’s only going to pitch 3-4 innings and the last few starts he did that and was lit up doing it
4, 5, 6 runs last three under 4 innings in each is not promising
Trout is a beast obviously, but even guys like Upton and Fletcher profile well
Valdez is a lefty so the righties make sense, but if he’s only going 3-4 innings, you all get 5-6 from a bullpen, so even a guy like Ohtani is fine to play here
Is Trout hurt?
BennyRicciardi: HE left the game yesterday. WE will see
If he’s out the lineup that is going to weaken them, but I still think the matchup for them is too good to ignore
Any interest in the game in Wrigley?
BennyRicciardi: I’m not touching Wrigley as of now
Major wind situation could change my mind, but Castillo is a good pitcher, even if the numbers on the road are below his home dominance
BennyRicciardi: Hendricks is a guy who doesn’t;t have K upside, but limits baserunners and runs scored, so I’m never high on taking bats against him
Unless wind is ridiculous 20+ MPH in Chicago, I’m not having much if any exposure to bats there
BennyRicciardi: If any of you guys have questions, feel free to fire them in
I’m going to take a piss and I’ll answer them in a minute when I sit back down
don’t be shy
that’s why I’m here
BennyRicciardi: I’m heavy on Dodgers in GPPs today, especially on FD
Those prices are all around the $3K isa range
You can still build good lineups around them
for HR derby Bellinger, Muncy, and who else do you like from that game
BennyRicciardi: Joe Pederson
The lefties should be the way to go
Eflin has allowed a .360 wOBA to lefties with a HR every 4 innings of work
BennyRicciardi: and the park shift from LA to Philly is a significant one
What about on DK, are you still heavy on the Dodgers
The only expensive DK dodger is Bellinger who is my favorite
You get the rest of the guys at $4600 or below
BennyRicciardi: Muncy, Seager, Verdugo, Pederson are all around $4K or a tad over it
Is Tommy alive?
BennyRicciardi: there’s always a 50/50 chance the answer to that question is no, and I’m much better at predicting baseball than predicting Tommy G.
BennyRicciardi: in his defense, Tommy is nearly indestructible though. If a nuclear bomb hit the earth, the only things that would survive are Coachroaches, Twinkies, and Tommy G
BennyRicciardi: Seriously guys
any more questions, fire them in
you got me here for at least a few more minutes
BennyRicciardi: Alright… I’ll be back here later as DC and I are doing livestream tonight, so if you have questions, fire them in during that.
Good Luck today boys
Who you like at pitching on DK
BennyRicciardi: Haven;t done the deep dive into pitching yet
DC handles that, I’ll have it done by tonight though for livestream.