Miss today’s sessions, or just want to revisit them? Here’s a full transcript of everything we covered!
Bullpen (Phil Backert)
Rockies bullpen looking to set records this year?
Phil Backert: yea glad we were on top of that heading into the weekend
so where are we looking this week? how is Bal pen looking with the A’s in town? Phi can mash, is the Was pen still a target?
Phil Backert: The Orioles starters aren’t pitching deep into games and their bullpen can’t get any outs. Every stat is ugly over the last seven days including the 12 home runs they have allowed. The next closest team in that span is the White Sox and they have only allowed seven home runs. This is a pitching staff we are going to continuously target in DFS. Despite only pitching 4.2 innings over the weekend, the Nationals bullpen allowed eight earned runs. Opponents are batting .328 against the unit over the last seven days, so yes O’s and Nats are bullpens to target
I thought we had a couple we were watching that were giving up a lot of hard contact but not giving up the runs. Any sneaky ones to keep an eye on
Phil Backert: Despite leading the majors in ERA over the last seven days at 2.18, the Twins bullpen has an xFIP of 5.65 which ranks 26th. That is a huge difference. If we look closer, they rank 29th in strikeout percentage during this period.
Thanks Phil we are def gonna win a GPP chasing a stud early this year to get at one of these pens
Phil Backert: i agree!
Hitting (Vlad Sedler)
Vlad Sedler: 8 game slate looks juicy today
Hi vlad who do you like mid tier outfield on fan duel ?
Vlad Sedler: Right now, Brantley, Camargo, Renfroe, Tapia, Verdugo (if playing)
I’m leaning renfroe Mancini Bruce
Vlad Sedler: Bruce can work too. I wrote up Mancini since he’s hot.
Vlad I know this is a hitting coach session but I have a question about bankroll. My bank roll is 1000 to start the year and I play about 1-5% a day. I am really struggling on what contests to play. I have been doing half cash and half gpp and been struggling. Got any ideas for me?
Vlad Sedler: Are you playing the single entries and 3-entry max, and are you on DK or FD?
FD. I play 100 people 50/50s for cash and I play half my gpp plays in big tourneys and the other half in 3-100 people
Vlad Sedler: Sounds like you’re doing it right. How many lineups? Just one?
I think thats my problem. There are so many players you gusy post and I just keep making lineups. I will play almost a different lineup per contest
Vlad Sedler: Oh there’s the issue. Play 1 lineup (your favorite) on all your cash games and single entries. If you play say 3 teams, make the other 2 GPP stacks. Just use Mans’ cash game article and don’t go too stack happy there. Just build around guys facing bad pitchers in good lineup spots with high contact and walk rates/low strikeout rates.
Then for my GPPs?
Vlad Sedler: There you can try to fit a couple of your favorite stacks. Can have a different (cheaper) pitcher in those and maybe try to line up a 1-4 or 3-6 on a stack then mix in other high variance guys. It’s hard for sure. Start in the mornings maybe by looking at the Vegas lines to see which teams are projected to score the most runs and seeing who you like. Write down a few players who stick out. Then check out Mans’, mine and other articles and if you start seeing a common thread about a player being listed then you can feel good about using him that day.
Vlad did you happen to read that convo Jesse and I had before you jumped in about HR projections?
Vlad Sedler: We’re not FantasyCruncher so don’t have control of that. They’ve never had this feature. But if you look at the ‘ceiling’ column, you can tell how it sort of incorporates upside of potential homers. If you want to dig in on a specific matchup, go to Fangraphs SPLITS then PITCH TYPE to see past history of how a pitcher has used a specific pitch and his stats with it, then look up corresponding batter – you can usually tell from a batter’s history what type of pitch (cutter, splitter, curve, etc) he is better at taking out of the yard.
Thanks Vlad. I wasn’t sure how that interaction worked since its based on a simulation model i though it might be possible. Wasn’t sure if they were just an interface for robs model.
Vlad Sedler: That’s maybe something you can ask Rob. I will say we are going to bring back a feature starting this weekend called the Bomb Detector though.
How do you feel about Goldy tonight?
Vlad Sedler: Goldy is one of several doable options tonight but not feeling great about him vs. Ryu.
You have Kendrick listed as a switch-hitter but he’s a righty. Would this take you off him vs Velasquez?
Vlad Sedler: damn, my bad. was late no excuse. I’m still interested in Howie. Will change in article. VV may not be long for the game anyways.
Season long question Vlad, Boyd worth picking up?
Vlad Sedler: Yes he is. Next 3 starts are CLE, PIT/CWS all at home.
Vlad – Lauer in cash on FD?
Vlad Sedler: Price and matchup is right. I like him and Verly a lot.
Hey Vlad, wkly lineup lock H2H- only wk 2 but a couple questions: (Villar 7gms or Bogaerts (only 5 games), and for the outfield pick 2-Bruce, Santana (7 each) Pham or Frazier..I’m leaning Villar , Santana and Frazier
Vlad Sedler: Villar and Domingo easy calls. I’d go Pham because you don’t want to sit one of your studs especially with good matchups. Frazier has a tough first series where he’ll be lucky to get a hit. Bruce is tempting but gets CLE on weekend (but should be 7 righties) so you could go Bruce for power. But I still like Pham.
Swanson going to be worth owning in season long leagues? 21st in xwOBA (SSS, yes) and worked with Chipper in the off-season. Someone cut him in dynasty and I’m going to start him at DH for the Coors series
Vlad Sedler: I still don’t think so. Maybe yes in a 15-teamer. I’m not stubborn and won’t say he can’t materialize as a fantasy-worthy hitter. But we saw the same thing last year…hot April then pooped the bed for months. He is a better real life player than fantasy.
Vlad – any particular reason Dansby is left off your article. Seems like Mans is high on him tonight.
Vlad Sedler: No particular reason outside of price, RvR and don’t care much for him in general.
Vlad how do you feel about difo as a cheap ss tonight
Vlad Sedler: Good price on both sites. If you need the punt, sure. But not crazy for him today.
Hey dc seems like a tough pitching slate today for a sp2
DraftCheat: Yeah for sure, I’ll probably stick with my boy Cahill
Tough lineup facing him tho
DraftCheat: for sure
Verlander #1 cash pitcher for FD or can Eric Lauer be trusted in cash to get better bats in?
DraftCheat: Verlander gotta be the guy in cash, at least on FD, probably DK too
DraftCheat: So one interesting thing this year. I’m sure those of you who have been DFSing a long time have noticed the DK hitter pricing. It used to be the hitter “punts” were 3k and below. Now, most viable hitter punts are almost $1k higher, high $3ks. my point is that going low priced pitchers on DK is much more valuable than it has been in the past because it used to take you $2000 in salary to upgrade from scrub to stud hitter, now it takes about $1200.
doesn’t hurt that Aces haven’t been locked in so far either
DraftCheat: yeah when you consider the projection between an ace pitcher and a viable cheap guy is typically less than 15 fantasy points. you can upgrade like 3-4 bats significantly with that salary.
does that mean go for 2 low priced pitchers or just 1
DraftCheat: it will still always depend on slate, but IN GENERAL we need to be considering low priced guys more than ever. FanDuel hasn’t changed, still want a guy you trust there as your only SP
DC is Felix viable on dk? That royals offense has looked lost
DraftCheat: yeah Felix viable
pitcher you had in mind?
DraftCheat: lauer, cahill, maybe homer bailey. $10,400 for Verlander definitely a bargain too, not exactly scared of this Yankee lineup
So are you playing like cahill and laur in gpp together
do you also think that anyone under 3k must be an option that can possibly get on base and score because they are so much more rare
DraftCheat: i think that’s gonna be the proper GPP approach a lot of nights
What stacks are you on? Or to make it pitching related which pitchers are you targeting against? And could we go into what makes them the target?
DraftCheat: Rockies are fantastic of course. Oakland, Philly, even Orioles viable tonight. Estrada going to come close to leading the league in HR/9 given up, for sure
no love for madbum?
DraftCheat: i like him, he’s expensive tho, would rather just get Verlander up there
DraftCheat: Cahill and Bailey for GPP on DK. Freeland in play, too.
DraftCheat: gulp for sure
what do you think of chacin?
DraftCheat: not the worst option. Outside of Trout that offense is horrible
What’s the Bailey thought process outside of ownership? Has he shown something?
DraftCheat: mainly he’s just super cheap is the process. He was impressive his first start. Under the hood stuff was good. Not suggesting he’s some new pitcher or anything. Good pitcher’s park.
seattle could destroy him though and no one would be surprised
DraftCheat: Yeah, I’m certainly not saying “Play Homer”, just that he’s in play tonight. Could easily get blown up.
Freeland being so low on price on dk seems like a good way to get off atl chalk.
DraftCheat: it’s good leverage against that chalk for sure. If he pitches well not only do you get a good score in your lineup but A LOT of lineups go down in flames with braves stacks. very risky obviously but freeland has pitched well in coors.
Its not that hot in Colorado today is it?
DraftCheat: it’s pretty nice
DC do you have a little more on Freeland though? Can he get the K’s here, I mean we have been able to use Freeland at Coors in the past
DraftCheat: He’s just a rock solid pitcher who hasn’t struggled at Coors. Braves lineup is scary but there is no question he could deliver 20+ fantasy points here at low price and low ownership. Wouldn’t do it in cash but its solid for GPP tonight on DK.
the bullpen will most likely blow the win but less of a problem on DK
DraftCheat: their bullpen will be OK i think
Too risky to use Freeland in a single entry on FD?
DraftCheat: definitely risky, but it could work
Atl doesn’t have many righties. Donaldson isn’t the same yet, swanson hitting over his head right now, flowers is injured
DraftCheat: Freeland could get quality start + win pretty easily
Albies accuna scary
DraftCheat: very scary
is tanaka usable today?
DraftCheat: i don’t like this spot. his best quality if he gets hitters to chase out of zone, and Astros have some of best discipline. A worse matchup for him than it is for most pitchers, even. Love him as a pitcher in general tho, just not here.