Bullpen (Phil Backert)
Which bullpens project to struggle the most with left handed bats throughout the season? Do you see anything that makes you think those pens will consistently struggle?
Phil Backert: Right now, the SP struggling for CHC/ATL haven’t helped. Plus, Cubs in Texas and Braves in Philly so ballpark has had some impact. The Angels currently have no lefties in the bullpen so can see them struggling against lefty hitters
Could you rate the five worst lead lefty specialists? Or a few teams ill-equipped to deal with left handed bats after angels
Phil Backert: Largest sample size so far would be Diamondbacks; their bullpen has already allowed 11 ER against Lefty hitters. Makes sense, they have 6 RHP in the bullpen compared to one. A’s and the Padres bullpens have had the most success against lefty hitters.
Hitting (Vlad Sedler)
Vlad, what’s your process for constructing a cash lineup vs gpp
Rotogut: Cash, I’m looking for high-contact hitters who don’t strikeout much against sub par pitchers – best one-offs, never look to stack. In GPPs, I don’t mind going up to 5-6 hitters from the same team.
Vlad for fan duel GPP, what is your goal with stacks ideally, 3, 4 man stacks?
Rotogut: FanDuel, yes, 4 man stacks in GPPs…usually top to middle of lineup guys, but if I’m doing multiple lineups, I like to differentiate with near bottom of lineup – like a 5-8 – not many teams that I feel comfy doing that with but NYY is one example where you still have studs who can go off near the bottom and there’s no pitcher hitting 9th
Will you try and fit in two 4 man stacks, or build around one main stack?
Rotogut: Usually build around one main but early on this year I’ve gone 4 + 3. There’s no exact formula for it as you have to make the pieces fit under salary cap and you can of course include hitters not on either of those two primary stacks.
Vlad, I feel like you don’t solely rely on analytics to make your hotter choices. How much do you weight analytics v hot streaks v bvp v matchup, etc.? I struggle to fully trust hitting analytics at times (being a former ballplayer) i see the merits of bvp and park stats
Rotogut: It’s really a balance for me. I’ll look at analytics first but hot streaks do matter to me, especially if opposing pitcher and bullpen stinks. BvP should be used last mostly as a tiebreaker between two players if sample size is big enough (but it usually isn’t). I try to build lineups before looking at BvP so that I’m not influenced.
Stack in single entry or use my cash lineup?
Rotogut: I like using either my cash lineup or a modified version of it in single entry…can be a bit more ‘stacky’
So you don’t like to use mini stacks in cash?
Rotogut: depends your definition of it, is that 2 or 3? I don’t have hard and fast rules. Mans and Schuster are amazing at cash and have a good strategy that works…they rarely stack. I’ll go up to 3 myself
For DFS purposes how often do you look towards who a hitter will face in the bullpen when building lineups? that’s something I’m trying to pay attention to more this season
Rotogut: Yep, it really does matter. Especially if you believe a SP won’t last long. But new bullpens so will take some time to recognize good and bad bullpens
Vlad, I play single entry GPPs on FD (less than 100 people) how many lineups is going overboard? I usually play 2-3. With the low amount of people the payouts arnt as high but a weaker score cashes easier.
Rotogut: you’re doing it right bro. People who aren’t chasing the big 150-entry with just 5 lineups and are actually grinding cash games and single entries are the ones doing this right
In addition to the Q/A below, DraftCheat did a detailed walkthrough of a SP research routine. That portion of the session has been converted into its own article here.
Hey DC, how much should I worry about SP ownership on FD for small single entries (50 people or less)
DraftCheat: You should definitely be considering ownership for those types of of GPPs. Typically single entries have even MORE ownership surrounded around a couple of pitchers. If you can find a guy you like that should have low ownership, that’s typically a great way to go in FDD GPP.
Is there a benefit to look at a non starter for your second pitcher on dk?
DraftCheat: Only in rare circumstances can you consider a non starter SP on DK. The most obvious is someone not listed as the SP but will come in after an “opener”. Those pithcers always go low owned, get to miss the top of the lineup, and have really high WIN equity points
When evaluating SPs? I usually look at K%, gb%, bb% to start? Good or bad?
DraftCheat: A great place to start, of course. But you can go SO much deeper
So are you predicting sale is on his way to the DL?
DraftCheat: pretty good chance, yes
Early on in the season where there’s not much sample size, are we basing most of our picks on pre-season predicition/draft analysis? How do you use tie breakers, etc. without much data this early?
DraftCheat: early on I’m mostly using last season’s numbers, unless I have a reason to believe differently, but lots of pitchers will change in signficant ways, so a couple starts of data can dramatically change my opinion on a pitcher from what is was last year
So do you do this first for every pitcher on a slate before you make a decision?
DraftCheat: Yes, all pitchers, every slate, and as the season goes on and we get more data, sometimes you start to see these numbers really start to trend one way or another. At that point my question is…did something change here?