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Bullpen (Phil Backert)
Phil Backert: The Angels bullpen continues to struggle as they have now allowed 10 home runs over the last seven days while allowing a flyball percentage of 47.9 and hard hit percentage of 53.2 during this span. Even more concerning is their high walk percentage of 17.3 and extremely low swinging strike percentage of 9.9.
which Bullpens are we attacking for the mainslate today?
Phil Backert: Angels seem to be a good one.
Phil Backert: The Orioles bullpen had to cover 32.1 innings over the last week which has led to a 4.45 ERA. They also aren’t missing bats either with a swinging strike percentage of 9.5.
Phil Backert: There’s not much to like about the Rangers bullpen these days. They have an ERA of 6.65 over the last week along with a hard hit percentage of 52.2, an awful swinging strike percentage of 6.9, a high walk percentage of 12.2 and a bad home run to flyball percentage 27.3.
when you are targeting awful bullpens are you looking to use the opposite handedness versus the relievers in the pen? if there are 5 RHP are you looking to use the lefties for instance?
Phil Backert: yes
has the nationals bullpen improved at all? is that a good spot to attack with the game being in coors?
Phil Backert: The answer is no BUT the starters have, so they don’t have to throw a lot of innings, only 14 in the last 7 days which is best in baseball
Phil Backert: Yea they still have an ERA over 6 in that span
oOLTZo: Thanks for the help last friday everyone!! ended up won a $1 qualifier and turned it into $1500!
Hitting (Vlad Sedler)
Do you like Ryan Zimmerman or Rhys hoskins better Vlad?
Vlad Sedler: Zimmerman for me. Cheap and streaky hitter. Hoskins has these reverse splits that no one seems to notice, only 3 of 39 homers since last year have come against lefties. I’m sure it’ll balance out but still something to keep an eye on.
If you had to pick one stack, who would it be
Vlad Sedler: One stack for me would be Nationals
So on fanduel Phillies blasted Matz last time out do you think that happens again being that he is a knuckleball pitcher?
Vlad Sedler: Saying the opposite, that Matz bounces back. He’s not a knuckleball pitcher, that was Dickey
Vlad what do you think about an Baltimore stack?
Vlad Sedler: I’m lukewarm on BAL stack…think it will be chalky but it’s not my top 3 today. Banuelos can come out there and pitch a few good innings
Houser someone to target? 3 pitches look ok. Decent velocity
Vlad Sedler: Not sure how many innings in store for Houser but much better that this game is at STL rather than MLW
how bout Flarety? hes gotten rocked both times against MKE
Vlad Sedler: I wouldn’t target too many hitters against Flaherty. Different beast in his home park and I very much doubt he lets them rock him a third time.
how do you go about choosing 1 offers for cash games?
Vlad Sedler: daniel: high run totals against bad pitchers, preferably in good hitting park, LvR or RvL, middle or top of order
when is your namesake coming up
Vlad Sedler: Need him up asap, I don’t know when
season long question
DraftCheat: hit me
i was offered a trade: Nola & Soler for Joc & Verdugo, should i accept? h2h points league
DraftCheat: you’re getting nola?
DraftCheat: yes I accept. Dodger bats are insane tho
DC are you on the livestream tonight?
DraftCheat: yep! 4 times this week
Vlad Sedler: Ah, one quick thing for you guys: DC and I recording a special season long podcast tomorrow if you’re interested. Ok, laterz.
Hey DC can you give me kinda like a brief rundown of how you start your research every day… like do you have the same system you do day in and day out
DraftCheat: I start from the top down. So I have my pitcher model which ranks every SP for their season performance so far, so generally a few are going to stand out there. I dig into each one to see if there are any changes, good or bad, that should make me adjust, Then I start to look at the matchups for each of the guys on my short(er) list. This is a good simple page for SP matchups: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=0&season=2019&month=14&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=&age=0&filter=&players=0 . If you click “advanced” on that page, then sort by K%, that’s a decent start to which teams you might want to target with R/L pitchers
when you sort by K% do you click create custom table? is that the button?
DraftCheat: you could, don’t have to. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2019&month=13&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d . That should give you team stats vs L for the year, sorted by K%. Ideally of course we are adjusting for each day’s lineup etc, but this gives you a very good overview. K% is important, as is BB%, and then wOBA and wRC+ on the far right.
for DK cash, going Musgrove/Minor.. is that good or go somewhere else instead of minor?
DraftCheat: don’t like minor, def Musgrove, and Sale if the Red Sox play
I like Sale but dont think the game gets in
DraftCheat: he seems to be back
DC do you like Chirinos starting today ?
DraftCheat: I like him some yeah
An what you think about Happ ?
DraftCheat: Another solid option, just so expensive
Hi DC I have been hitting in my cash games with pitchers under 8k. Who do you like in that price range tonight? I was leaning flaherty
DraftCheat: sadly I’m probably punting with Harvey today if Red Sox get rained out
Lol so no nyy love today ?
DraftCheat: oh i like them, too, its just Harvey is $5600 and $5500 and he’s not as bad as people think. like, he’s not good, but I have him as roughly league average SP going forward
Ya I’m trying to go Harvey sale but weather
DraftCheat: yeah Harvey/Musgrove IMO, if Sale gets rained out. Especially away from Yankee stadium. i dunno there is just quite a bit to like about playing Harvey here, outside of “it’s Matt Harvey”.
LAA plays good to lefties so hopefully Gardner bets lead off
DraftCheat: yeah Gardner will lead off for sure
DC, any Godley love today?
DraftCheat: Don’t hate Godley. Brutal schedule for him so far. @LAD, @ATL, BOS, SD. That’s rough
Christian Walker banged up? didn’t play yesterday at wrigley
DraftCheat: was available to pinch hit they said
DC I know it’s early but on FD do you plan on paying up or down today if the Red Sox game does not go?
DraftCheat: good chance I punt with Harvey on FD, lots of good high end bats
Musgrove/Harvey/Realmuto/McMahon/Dozier/Carpenter/DeJong/Blackmon/Cain/Martinez for Dk Cash?
DraftCheat: looks pretty solid, i haven’t build any lineups but yeah that’s genearlly the style I’ll be going for
how do you feel for the Astros tonite?
DraftCheat: good chance they blast odorizzi. lot of quick bats on that team and odo tries to sneak high fastballs by right-handed bats. If that doesn’t work those are leaving the yard
Random season long pitching question, DC. I just acquired Syndergaard last week in a trade because I didn’t notice anything to worry about on his Fangraphs page. Are you seeing anything I’m not or has he just played good offenses lately?
DraftCheat: He’s healthy, he’ll be great, nice buy low
There’s a way to see if certain teams struggle against a certain pitch correct? Like for instance Musgrove’s offspeed stuff is looking great; wondering if there is a way to see if a team struggles with a pitcher’s best pitch?
DraftCheat: Here you go: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=7&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 . So, be careful overdoing it making decisions on this data here. for one, you can’t easily divide it based on RHP and LHP, and two it’s kinda noisy anyway.
something awesome to do that would help a lot of us out or maybe everyone else knows how to work it would be a tutorial or something going over how to use the fangraphs site.. confusing as hell to me.
DraftCheat: I’ll do a live screen share video sometime soon taking everyone through fangraphs