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Bullpen (Phil Backert)
Phil Backert: The Mariners bullpen has now allowed five home runs over the past seven days while allowing a flyball percentage of 42.2. During this span, opponents are batting .269 which ranks 27th.
Phil, do you use a lot of the pitch type and/or plate discipline numbers from Fangraphs?
Phil Backert: yea i like seeing the swinging strike rate and hard hit rate
Phil Backert: The Brewers bullpen has thrown 31 innings over the last week which ranks 29th during this span. This comes as a surprise, even with Josh Hader in the bullpen, the Brewers only have a swinging strike percentage of 8.6 over the last week which ranks 28th. If we look at the full season, they still rank 21st at 11.2 percent.
How about the plate discipline numbers or the numbers for specific pitches? I’m asking because I’m wondering if you prefer to use either the PitchFX numbers or the Baseball Info Solutions numbers.
Phil Backert: Plate Discipline
Phil Backert: The Angels rank dead last in WHIP over the last week at 2.00. It shouldn’t come as a surprise that their walk percentage of 17.2 ranks 29th and opponents batting average of .274 ranks 28th.
Hitting (Vlad Sedler)
astros are really expensive on dk but i really want to use them
Vlad Sedler: Bregs, Correa, Brantley, Yuli are 3-6 and actually reasonably priced there
Vlad Sedler: One of these games Smyly will spin a gem – but probably not tonight.
Vlad, who are your core plays for dk cash?
Vlad Sedler: McMahon, Dahl, Altuve, Bregman, And like Rosario if that game plays
rosario is in for a monster year if he stays healthy
Vlad Sedler: He’s the guy I came around on for seasonal high stakes later in draft season but he kept getting sniped early
Vlad Sedler: Correa 73% hard contact rate against lefties. it’s just 15 PA but still.
whats your favorite mini stack of the day?
Vlad Sedler: still want to see lineups but a mini stack around Conforto possibly (with Cano and either Alonso or Ramos). Yonder/Eloy/Anderson is sneaky if weather holds up. but for chalk: HOU, STL, COL
I do not know if you are a BvP guy, but that Keon BvP number is so sexy
Vlad Sedler: I look at BvP for bigger sample sizes in the case of a tiebreaker (player A vs player B), but yes, hard not to look at that sample for Keon and consider him if he’s in the lineup. It also could mean he’s due to go 0-4. The problem with some BvP is pitchers and hitters change and some of this data is from 3-4 years ago, But can’t deny that certain hitters just see certain pitchers better
Tousaint is tempting as well
Vlad Sedler: let’s see how the weather is there. Toussaint is fighting for a spot in rotation – let’s see if he can step up to the challenge. He’s very volatile.
no jordan lyles love???
DraftCheat: I like Lyles tonight
DraftCheat: Big test for Marquez tonight
Dc is Sanchez a plug in on fd tonfihht? So cheap
DraftCheat: Yeah he’s a very good option, Miami is just SO bad especially vs righties
Weather a concern for lyles?
DraftCheat: could be, hard to say this early
rays lefties back in play with red sox pen and no lefties in the pen?
DraftCheat: I bet a lot of them will sit vs e-rod, but yeah they’d be sneakky
How do you start your process everyday? Is it as simple as vegas lines or is there certain pitcher stats you look at 1st?
DraftCheat: I have my own pitcher model, so that’s where I always start, and then I’m digging in from there to see if it’s missing anything
Which set of numbers do you use when looking at pitch type and plate discipline data on Fangraphs? PitchFX, Baseball Info Solutions, or both
DraftCheat: pitch fx mostly
DraftCheat: well, sometimes its missing data or whatever. As long as you use the same data consistently you should be fine.
Do you think just using PitchFX unless it is unavailable is an accurate enough representation?
DraftCheat: yeah i do for sure
DC, underlying metrics for Hendricks are very concerning. Is it just lack of command? His changeup is getting fucking roasted.
DraftCheat: I can’t really figure out what’s wrong with Hendricks. His stuff has always been shit but he’s been so good at fooling hitters. Not working this year. My guess is he turns it around soon.
DC you like Toussaint? if the weather is ok…
DraftCheat: probably not on Toussaint, I don’t think he’s that great. I’m definitely playing Marquez in GPPs
would you play Marquez if only building 3 lineups
vargas cheaper than most bats…lol
any love for Marco?
DraftCheat: Not on Marco. Vargas should be cheaper than most bats lol.
Any whispers on caleb smith DC
DraftCheat: I could see using him. Tough matchup but the park is so good
DC thoughts on Font?
DraftCheat: not using font
who’s the best pitcher for cash today? on FD 1 pitcher site
DraftCheat: would probabbly lean Anibal on FD, or Berrios if paying up
Jordan Lyles have a new curveball? Decent price on both sites. You buy into him being improved at all DC?
DraftCheat: I think he’s improved some. Not gonna be a breakout ace or anything IMO, good play today tho
Your boy Montas looked good vs Houston again…
DraftCheat: Yeah Montas was impressive, gonna have a huge game soon
With your model are you just trying to create an aggregate ranking based on weighted stats that you feel are important to success?
DraftCheat: yes, basically doing that
Jesse: Kind of, @db82780 . Mine serves as both a “see everything I care about in 1 place” tool and a “generate original stats based on the things I care about” one. Also, I have mine set up with filter buttons so I can quickly see everyone of a certain pos, salary, team, or range of a stat, which makes building LUs much easier. If I need my favorite FD UTIL play under $2700, I can get it automatically.
Question for you guys. I don’t play much $ on a nightly basis. So if I’m only playing $15-$20 a night how much of that do you reccomend for Cash/GPP
DraftCheat: entirely personal preference and what your goals are. if you’re trying to grind out a small profit, cash, if you’re comfortable possibly going on long dry spells, GPPs are fine.
Just trying to build my bankroll slowly. My goal is to win the week, not necessarily the day
DraftCheat: probably stick to cash mostly then
Jesse: Then $16-$17 in cash, $2-$3 in small (<100ppl) tourneys, and about $1 in a larger single-entry gpp, is what I’d recommend. That’s the type of mix that I’ve found generates the best ROI with the lowest amount of variance. Variance goes down even more if you make a majority of that $16-$17 in cash into h2h instead of 50-50s and double-ups.
I have success in NBA, by doing my own research then looking at articles to make sure I didnt miss anything. Any tips or similarities you can give me to for research because i suck at baseball.
Jesse: Why do you say you suck?
because i bleed money away every baseball season. Partly due to contest selection. But i rather form my own opinions then look at what everyone else is saying
Jesse: It’s good to want to think for yourself, it means you’re approaching this the right way. Copy/pasting stuff from the articles here will make you better than about 70% of your competition w/o any thought at all. Unfortunately, it’s tough to be profitable long-term when you’re only in the top 30%, unless you’re playing 90+% cash games. Contest selection can turn a guy with a slightly negative, leaky ROI into one with a significantly positive one. You’d be amazed at what would happen if you only entered 20-man tourneys instead of 1,000-man ones. What’s your contest selection look like right now?
right now have 3 in the $12 5 max and 3 in some 100 mans
Jesse: That’s better than most @db82780 . If you’re just interested in GPPs, and you like building 3 LUs and risking $50-$100/night, I’d say move that $36 of 5-max money into 3 $10 20-man tourneys and 3 $2 20-man tourneys. Then about $5/LU in the 100-mans, and $2-$3/LU into things w/ >100ppl, like a few of the 250-1000 person single-entry things.