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Monday, September 14th
This is a messy slate for Monday. Draftkings will have 7 games starting at 4:10 EST with 3 of the games being the first game of a doubleheader. The 3 games are PIT/CIN, OAK/SEA and STL/MIL. This is just stupid but it is what it is. The doubleheaders only being 7 innings, it changes some things. Starting pitchers are still in play but it really hurts the hitters who get one less AB in most cases. We have just 3 games on FanDuel which starts at 7:35 EST. This article will be based on Draftkings with it being the bigger slate. Please keep in mind that this is not a great cash game slate.
There will be nothing to worry about tonight!
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center
Will provide updates later on. With the doubleheaders and unconfirmed pitchers, we only have lines for 2 games so far.
TODAY’S BEST PITCHERS
1) Trevor Bauer (RHP) – Reds (DK $10,800) – The Pirates are dead last in both ISO and wOBA vs. RHP by a wide margin. Bauer has a 36% K rate this season. He had a couple of shaky outings but got back on track in the shutdown of the Cubs in his last outing. The Reds give Bauer an exceptionally long leash so there is a good chance that he can finish the 7-inning game.
2) Jesus Luzardo (LHP) – A’s (DK $8,300) – The Mariners are last wOBA vs. LHP and have the 5th highest K% rate vs. LHP. Luzardo actually has a better xFIP by a point than Dinelson Lamet whom everyone loves. It would be great if he could turn that 12.4% swinging strike rate into a few more strikeouts.
3) Pablo Lopez (RHP) – Marlins (DK $7,200) – Does it surprise you to know that Lopez has the 3rd best xFIP on the slate. He has been much better at home with just 1 walk in 19 1/3 innings compared to 12 in 20 2/3 innings. The Phillies are missing some key bats which should make dealing with the lineup much easier.
4) Dinelson Lamet (RHP) – Padres (DK $9,100 & FD $10,100) – He has a 14% swinging strike rate and 32.9% K rate this season. The improvement vs. left-handed hitters has been the game changer. Lamet had a dominate outing last week with a career high in pitches so the extra rest should set-up greatly for him. He is the best option on Fanduel for the 3-game slate.
PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST
1) Josh Lindblom, RHP, Brewers – LHH Cardinals Hitters
2) Dylan Cease, RHP, White Sox – All Twins Hitters
3) Touki Toussaint, RHP, Braves – LHH Orioles Hitters
4) Jorge Lopez, RHP, Orioles – All Braves Hitters
5) Vincent Velasquez, RHP, Phillies – LHH Marlins Hitters
Worst Bullpens on the slate (Last 2 Weeks)
1) Philadelphia Phillies
2) Miami Marlins
BATTER VS. PITCHER
C – James McCann (CHW) 8-24 4 HR’s vs. Berrios
3B – Brian Andreson (MIA) 4-16 2 HR’s vs. Velasquez
3B – Manny Machado (SDP) 5-15 2 HR’s vs. Kershaw
There is a bunch of sample size guys with some BvP but not enough PA’s to warrant listing.
For More BvP info check out our BvP Matchup Page
OVERALL HITTER RANKINGS
1) Ryan Jeffers – Twins (DK $2,700)
2) Andrew Knapp – Phillies (DK $2,600)
3) Travis D’arnaud – Braves (DK $4,700)
4) James McCann – White Sox (DK $4,900)
5) Yasmani Grandal – White Sox (DK $5,000)
This is actually a deeper position for just 7 games and 3 of them being double headers. Jeffers has been hot lately and faces a pitcher due to get blown up. Knapp has a .458 wOBA vs. RHP. The last 3 guys have good matchups but it is hard to pay up for catcher on this slate.
1) Freddie Freeman – Braves (DK $5,500 & FD $4,300)
2) Miguel Sano – Twins (DK $4,900 & FD $3,200)
3) Garrett Cooper – Marlins (DK $3,500)
There are not many options for 1B. Freeman is clearly the #1 but comes at a hefty price tag. Sano is one of the many Twins that I like. Cooper is a value option on DK.
1) Marwin Gonzalez – Twins (DK $3,300 & FD $2,500)
2) Ozzie Albies – Braves (DK $4,400 & FD $2,700)
3) Dylan Moore – Mariners (DK $4,100)
Gonzalez has homered the last two games and faces Cease who I want to pick on. This position is not full of any good options so it is all about value and picking on the bad pitchers. Moore has been great this year but match-up and shorter game is not ideal.
1) Austin Riley – Braves (DK $4,500 & FD $2,900)
2) Josh Donaldson – Twins (DK $4,100 & FD $3,100)
3) Yoan Moncada – White Sox (DK $5,100 & FD $3,400)
4) Manny Machado – Padres (DK $5,500 & FD $4,300)
Riley has really improved the strike out rate over the last month. Donaldson is affordable on both sites. Moncada has finally gotten his bat going which only makes the White Sox better. Machado faces Kershaw which is never easy but he loves facing LHP.
1) Fernando Tatis – Padres (DK $5,600 & FD $4,800)
2) Corey Seager – Dodgers (DK $5,200 & FD $4,100)
3) Dansby Swanson – Braves (DK $5,100 & FD $3,500)
4) Jorge Polanco – Twins (DK $4,900 & FD $2,900)
5) Jazz Chisholm – Marlins (DK $3,200)
The top options are great but are expensive and have tough matchups. This tells you how messed up this position and slate is. Swanson is a little cheaper with a better match-up. Polanco has been awful this year but best option on FD if you want to pay down. Jazz should be the punt on DK.
1) Max Kepler – Twins (DK $4,600 & FD $3,000)
2) Eddie Rosario – Twins (DK $4,400 & FD $3,200)
3) Ronald Acuna – Braves (DK $6.000 & FD $4,900)
4) Ryan Mountcastle – Orioles (DK $3,600)
5) DJ Stewart – Orioles (DK $2,400 & FD $2,900)
6) Chris Dickerson – Marlins (DK $3,800)
7) Nelson Cruz – Twins (DK $5,300 & DK $4,600)
8) Marcell Ozuna – Braves (DK $5,400 & DK $4,100)
9) Wil Myers – Padres (DK $4,200 & FD $3,600)
10) Jake Cave – Twins (DK $2,800 & FD $2,600)
11) Bryce Harper – Phillies (DK $5,700)
12) Starling Marte – Marlins (DK $5,200)
13) Adam Duvall – Braves (DK $4,500 & FD $3,000)
This a position that revolves around the Twins and Braves with the Orioles sprinkled in. You get better value on the Twins than the Braves. The Orioles OF is still underpriced on DK.
(check back for updates)
P – Trevor Bauer
1B – Freddie Freeman
2B – Marwin Gonzalez
OF – Max Kepler
P – Dinelson Lamet
1B – Freddie Freeman
2B – Marwin Gonzalez
OF – Max Kepler