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Sunday, September 13th
Today’s MLB Cash Game Breakdown goes over Sunday’s MLB 8-game slate that has a roster lock of 1:05 PM ET/10:05 AM PT.
As of 6:44 a.m. ET, all the games on the slate are expected to have great weather. For an updated forecast closer to lock, please check out our MLB Weather Center
No line on PHI/MIA at this time.
- New York Yankees -220
- Tampa Bay Rays -190
- Chicago White Sox -150
- Minnesota Twins -140
Highest Run Expectancy
- Baltimore Orioles – 5.66
- Milwaukee Brewers – 4.99
- Tampa Bay Rays – 4.87
- Toronto Blue Jays – 4.85
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Boston Red Sox – 3.63
- Cleveland Indians – 3.82
- Baltimore Orioles – 3.84
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 3.88
TODAY’S BEST PITCHERS
1) Michael Pineda, RHP, Twins – In two starts this season, Pineda has recorded two quality starts to go along with an impressive 25.7 hard-contact rate, 24 K%, and 2.77 ERA. While it’s always been tough trusting him in years past, you have to like the position he’s in this afternoon. He’ll be going up against the Indians which have struggled offensively as of late. In their last 14, they’ve posted a .279 wOBA and 68 wRC+. The Indians own a 24 K% against right-handed pitchers this season which provides Pineda with some upside.
2) Brad Keller, RHP, Royals – The 25-year-old righty will be taking the bump at Kauffman Stadium. In 18 innings of work in Kansas City, he’s boasting a 0.50 ERA and hitters own a .147 AVG. Although he doesn’t post the strikeout upside we typically look for (17.1K%), he is going up against the Pirates which rank last in wOBA and own a 24.9 K% against right-handed pitchers.
3) Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Marlins – The Phillies have looked stellar offensively in their first three games against the Marlins. However, I’m looking for Sanchez to slow their offense down. Sanchez has looked amazing in his first four outings of his big league career. He’s posted an insane 26.6 K%, 2.1 BB%, and 3.06 SIERA. The Marlins have relied heavily on their bullpen this week so we can expect the hard-throwing northpaw to be asked to pitch deep into this contest. Plus, this game is the 1st contest of the Marlins-Phillies doubleheader so the Phillies may not roll out their usual lineup which should benefit Sanchez.
Note: I also like Charlie Morton, but his uncertainty in pitch count does worry me a bit. He threw 57 pitches in 5 innings of work last time out. If we get word on his pitch count or you don’t mind the risk, he’s worth taking a look at considering his matchup against the Red Sox.
PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST
1) Adrian Houser, RHP, Brewers (LHH Brewers Hitters)
2) John Means, LHP, Orioles (RHH Yankees Hitters)
3) Vince Velasquez, RHP, Phillies (All Marlins Hitters)
4) Alec Mills, RHP, Cubs (RHH Brewers Hitters)
Worst Bullpens on the slate (Last 2 Weeks)
1) Philadelphia Phillies
2) Boston Red Sox
3) Detroit Tigers
4) Miami Marlins
BATTER VS. PITCHER
C – Yadier Molina (STL) 8-15 vs. Tyler Mahle
1B – Renato Nunez (BAL) 11-21 4 HR vs. J.A. Happ
2B – Hanser Alberto (BAL 7-15 2 HR vs. J.A. Happ
SS – Xander Bogaerts (BOS) 12-33 2 HR vs. Charlie Morton
OF – Jesse Winker (CIN) 6-10 vs. Carlos Martinez
For More BvP info check out our BvP Matchup Page
OVERALL HITTER RANKINGS
1) Yasmani Grandal – White Sox (DK $4,900 & FD $3,000)
2) Wilson Contreras – Cubs (DK $4,700 & FD $2,800)
3) Kevan Smith – Rays (DK $3,000 & FD $2,000)
4) Salvador Perez – Royals (DK $4,300 & FD $2,500)
Grandal owns a .229 ISO in his last 41 PA and Turnbull has had issues with command as of late. Houser owns a 7.36 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in his 5 outings, making Contreras a great option. He owns a .375 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers this season. Smith has yet to record a hit vs. a lefty, but he does have a career .300 AVG against them. Perez has 4 hits in his first 2 games back with the Royals, he’s another great option going up against the Pirates.
1) Luke Voit – Yankees (DK $5,400 & FD $3,900)
2) Anthony Rizzo – Cubs (DK $4,500 & FD $3,300)
3) Jose Abreu – White Sox (DK $5,300 & FD $3,700)
4) Renato Nunez – Orioles (DK $4,300 & FD $2,900)
5) Jeimer Candelario – Tigers (DK $3,900 & FD $3,000)
With a .469 ISO against lefties, Voit is by far my favorite first baseman on the slate. Lefties own a .427 wOBA vs. Houser, making Rizzo a great option this afternoon. Nunez has great numbers against Happ in his career which makes him hard to not like. Righties also own a .333 wOBA against Happ this season. Candelario is just on an absolute tear and I don’t see anything slowing him down.
1) D.J. LeMahieu – Yankees (DK $5,400 & FD $3,900)
2) Keston Hiura – Brewers (DK $5,300 & FD $3,600)
3) Bradon Lowe – Rays (DK $5,200 & FD $3,400)
4) Jonathan Schoop – Tigers (DK $4,300 & FD $3,000)
In 7 outings this season, Mean is boasting a 3.12 HR/9. This put LeMahieu in a great spot, especially with the way he’s been swinging the bat as of late (he’s currently on a 6-game hitting streak). Hiura is facing a righty and he’s posted a .252 ISO against them. Lowe will be facing a lefty which may worry some people, but he’s boasting a 1.108 OPS against southpaws.
1) Eugenio Suarez – Reds (DK $4,900 & FD $3,200)
2) Miguel Andujar – Yankees (DK $3,800 & FD $2,500)
3) Jose Ramirez – Indians (DK $5,500 & FD $3,700)
4) Mike Brosseau – Rays (DK $4,800 & FD $2,600)
5) Mike Moustakas – Reds (DK $5,000 & FD $2,800)
Suarez owns a career .348 OBP vs. Carlos Martinez and possesses some pop against righties. In 42 PA, Brosseau is sporting a .421 ISO against southpaws and should be hitting up in the order this afternoon. Andujar has looked impressive since returning from injury and is facing a southpaw that struggles against righties. Ramirez is sporting a .420 wOBA in his last 43 PA to go along with 4 dingers. He’s always in play when he’s swinging a hot bat.
1) Adalberto Mondesi – Royals (DK $3,100 & FD $2,800)
2) Gleyber Torres – Yankees (DK $4,900 & FD $2,900)
3) Tim Anderson – White Sox (DK $5,500 & FD $3,700)
The price is right Mondesi and he’s on an absolute tear. He’s homered in his last 3 contests and is riding a 9-game hitting streak. There’s not much more we can ask for. As you can tell, I like the Yankees’ upside this afternoon which makes Torrers a great option. Anderson has posted a .372 wOBA in his 57 PA and is facing a pitcher with a 15.1 BB%. I’m expecting him to capitalize on mistake pitches.
1) Christian Yelich – Brewers (DK $5,500 & FD $4,100)
2) Clint Frazier – Yankees (DK $4,400 & FD $3,300)
3) Manuel Margot – Rays (DK $3,100 & FD $2,600)
4) Ryan Mountcastle – Orioles (DK $3,600 & FD $3,600)
5) Eloy Jimenez – White Sox (DK $5,300 & FD $3,300)
6) Ian Happ – Cubs (DK $4,700 & FD $3,300)
7) Luis Robert – White Sox (DK $4,900 & FD $3,600)
8) Aaron Hicks – Yankees (DK $4,100 & FD $3,300)
9) Eddie Rosario – Twins (DK $4,400 & FD $3,000)
10) Hunter Dozier – Royals (DK $3,900 & FD $2,800)
11) Alex Verdugo – Red Sox (DK $4,300 & FD $3,000)
12) Hunter Renfroe – Padres (DK $3,700 & FD $2,800)
13) Jason Heyward – Cubs (DK $3,600 & FD $2,700)
14) Alex Gordon – Royals (DK $2,000 & FD $2,300)
15) Ben Gamel – Brewers (DK $3,400 & FD $2,300)
Like I’ve mentioned, Means is prone to the long ball which makes Hicks and Frazier 2 great options in the outfield. Yelich has struggled a bit this year, but it looks like he’s getting back to his old ways. He’s facing a righty that’s allowed 5 homers and .579 SLG against lefties. Margot and Renfroe have done better against southpaws in their career and face one with a 5.88 SIERA this afternoon. Mountcastle is a lot fun to watch and is facing a southpaw. Although a small sample size, he owns a 1.033 OPS in 18 PA against lefties. Gamel and Gordon aren’t guys with tremendous pop, but you have to love their price. Plus, they are in favorable matchups.