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Saturday, September 12th
We are down to 8 games on the main slate with the cancellation of the Giants and Padres game due to a positive COVID test for the Giants. The weather in the Midwest needs to be tracked but we should be ok. The pitching seems to be clear-cut so the real decisions will be with the hitters. The two most popular games to attack with hitters will be in Chicago and Colorado.
Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox will have late afternoons storms but it is expected to clear out. We will keep an eye on it but not overly concerned.
Cleveland Indians @ Minnesota Twins will have light rain throughout the day but it should play.
Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals are expecting rain during the day but it should clear out for the game.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center
No line on DET/CWS at time of posting. It should be the 2nd highest run total on the slate.
- Arizona Diamondbacks -174
- Los Angeles Dodgers -152
- St Louis Cardinals -136
- Cleveland Indians -130
- Colorado Rockies -126
Highest Run Expectancy
- Colorado Rockies – 6.63
- Los Angeles Angels – 5.87
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 5.27
- Kansas City Royals – 4.72
- St. Louis Cardinals – 4.6
Lowest Run Expectancy
- Seattle Mariners – 3.48
- Cincinnati Reds – 3.9
- Milwaukee Brewers – 4.16
- Houston Astros – 4.23
- Minnesota Twins – 4.23
TODAY’S BEST PITCHERS
1) Zac Gallen, RHP, Diamondbacks (DK $9,400 & FD $10,000) – The last start was the first time in Gallen’s career that he allowed more than 3 runs in any of his 24 career starts. It was smooth sailing until things fell apart in the 6th inning in that game. Gallen has the 3rd best xFIP, 2nd best swinging strike rate and best K% rate on the slate of regular starters. The Marines are bottom 10 in ISO and wOBA vs. RHP. He is the clear top choice on either site.
2) Zach Plesac, RHP, Indians (DK $8,000 & FD $10,200) – The Twins are dangerous team vs. RHP but have the 8th highest K% rate vs. RHP. Plesac has allowed just 5 total runs in 5 starts this season. He has the best xFIP, best swinging strike rate and 2nd best K% rate. The price on FanDuel is too expensive but worth the risk on Draftkings as your 2nd pitcher.
3) Dakota Hudson, RHP, Cardinals (DK $8,300 & FD $7,800) – The swinging strike rate and K% rate are not ideal but it is actually middle of the road on this slate. The biggest change for Hudson this season is ability to get left-handed hitters out. Hudson has allowed just a .197 wOBA vs. LHH this season compared to .347 last season. The Reds have struggled on the road with the 5th worst wOBA. Hudson would be the pay down option if you must on FanDuel.
4) Justus Sheffield, LHP, Mariners (DK $7,700 & FD $8,600) – The Diamondbacks are last in wOBA and ISO vs. LHP this season. Sheffield appears to find himself in a good match-up but I am concerned about the home/road splits. He is averaging 3 times the fantasy points at home than on the road. The last 3 home starts have come in great matchups as well. Sheffield could be a fall back option on Draftkings if we have any cancellations.
PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST
1) Reynaldo Lopez, RHP, White Sox (All Tigers Hitters)
2) Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers & Daniel Norris, LHP, Tigers (RHH White Sox Hitters)
3) Trevor Williams, RHP, Pirates (RHH Royals Hitters)
4) Carlos Hernandez, RHP, Royals (All Pirate Hitters)
5) Jaime Barria, RHP, Angels (All Rockies Hitters)
6) Brett Anderson, LHP, Brewers (RHH Cubs Hitters)
7) Kyle Freeland, LHP, Rockies (RHH Angels Hitters)
Worst Bullpens on the slate (Last 2 Weeks)
1) Detroit Tigers
2) Seattle Mariners
3) St. Louis Cardinals
4) Houston Astros
5) Cleveland Indians
BATTER VS. PITCHER
1B – Jose Abreu (CWS) 7-19 2 HR vs. Mike Fulmer
3B – Eugenio Suarez (CIN) 7-16 2 HR vs. Dakota Hudson
2B – Mike Moustakas (CIN) 3-11 2 HR
OF – Victor Reyes (DET) 8-18 HR vs. Reynaldo Lopez
OF – Nomar Mazara (CWS) 5-10 HR vs. Mike Fulmer
For More BvP info check out our BvP Matchup Page
OVERALL HITTER RANKINGS
1) Max Stassi – Angels (DK $3,000)
2) Wilson Contreras – Cubs (DK $4,600)
3) Sal Perez – Royals (DK $4,100)
4) Yasmani Grandal – White Sox (DK $5,000)
Stassi should make the lineup tonight after a day off on Friday. He has been good against LHP this season. Contreras has finally come alive after a terrible start to the season. Perez has returned from injury and it is nice to have him back as a middle of the order catcher who is never highly priced.
1) Jose Abreu – White Sox (DK $5,300 & FD $3,700)
2) Edwin Encarnacion – White Sox (DK $4,900 & FD $3,000)
3) Jeimer Candelario – Tigers (DK $3,900 & FD $3,000)
4) Christian Walker – Diamondbacks – (DK $4,100 & FD $2,900)
5) Daniel Murphy – Rockies (DK $3,300 & FD $3,100)
Abreu lost his 22-game hit streak last night but still having a monster season. E5 would be a secondary choice if you need to save a few bucks. Candelario faces off against the worst pitcher on the slate. Walker is showing that he should not have been platooned the last few seasons. Murphy is too cheap on DK if he makes the lineup.
1) Ryan McMahon – Rockies (DK $3,700 & FD $3,300)
2) Jonathan Schoop – Tigers (DK $4,300 & FD $3,000)
3) Nick Madrigal – White Sox (DK $3,100 & FD $2,500)
4) Josh Rojas – Diamondbacks (DK $3,100 & FD $2,200)
This position is not great tonight. McMahon has been hitting really well at home and a nice price on DK. Schoop will look to take advantage of Lopez. Madrigal hits at the bottom of the order but is an on base machine in a lineup that scores a ton of runs. Rojas gets a lefty on lefty match-up but has been moved to the Top 2 of the batting order.
1) Anthony Rendon – Angels (DK $5,400 & FD $4,500)
2) Kris Bryant – Cubs (DK $4,400 & FD $3,000)
3) Nolan Arenado – Rockies (DK $5,800 & FD $4,200)
4) Alex Bregman – Astros (DK $5,100 & FD $3,600)
5) Jose Ramirez – Indians (DK $5,600 & FD $3,700)
This is a position to pay up for on this slate. Rendon destroys LHP. The price is a little more playable on DK. Bryant is affordable on both sites if you cannot go top tier. Arenado at home is interesting but do prefer Rendon. Bregman is great vs. LHP but not quite back in the swing of things. Ramirez would be a higher ranked on most slates.
1) Trevor Story – Rockies (DK $5,800 & FD $4,500)
2) Andrelton Simmons – Angels (DK $4,500 & FD $3,100)
3) Javier Baez – Cubs (DK $4,600 & FD $2,900)
4) Tim Anderson – White Sox (DK $5,600 & FD $3,700)
5) Adalberto Mondesi – Royals (DK $2,700 & FD $2,800)
Story has been the only consistent hitter on the Rockies this season. Simmons has been leading off and is affordable in Coors Field (pass if not leading off). Baez has been bad this year but has shown some signs of coming out of it. Anderson has destroyed the Tigers but the price is high (more in play on FD). Mondesi had been terrible all season but has 3 HR’s in his last 5 games and has been moved to the #2 spot. The price on Draftkings is dirt cheap.
1) Mike Trout – Angels (DK $6,000 & FD $5,000)
2) Charlie Blackmon – Rockies (DK $5,800 & FD $4,200)
1) Eloy Jimenez – White Sox (DK $5,200 & FD $3,300)
2) Luis Robert – White Sox (DK $5,100 & FD $3,600)
3) Franmil Reyes – Indians (DK $4,300 & FD $2,800)
4) Victor Reyes – Tigers (DK $4,100 & FD $2,900)
5) Raimel Tapia – Rockies (DK $3,700 & FD $3,200)
6) Justin Upton – Angels (FD $3,400)
7) AJ Pollock – Dodgers (DK $3,900 & FD $3,000)
8) Ian Happ – Cubs (DK $4,700 & FD $3,300)
9) Whit Merrifield – Royals (DK $4,600 & FD $3,300)
1) Justin Upton – Angels (DK $3,000)
2) Jo Adell – Angels (DK 2,700)
3) David Dahl – Rockies (DK $2,900)
4) Cameron Maybin – Cubs (DK $2,600)
1) Jorge Bonifacio – Royals (FD $2,000)
2) Jordan Luplow – Indians (FD $2,200)
3) Cameron Maybin – Cubs (FD $2,300)
(check back for updates)
P – Zac Gallen
C – Max Stassi
OF – Justin Upton
1B – Jose Abreu
P – Zac Gallen
OF – Eloy Jimenez
1B – Jose Abreu
2B – Jonathan Schoop