Everything you’ll need to stay above the payline in tonight’s MLB Cash Games!
For the time being, we will post our DFS MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. We will update it with links to each piece when it is LIVE so check back throughout the day:
- Cash Game Breakdown – The article you are currently reading.
- DFS MLB Cheatsheet – A quick guide to the top plays at each position and salary level.
- GPP Writeup – Using experience, game theory & advanced stats to uncover low owned stars.
- MLB Summary – A quick summary of the articles, shows & coaching sessions from today.
Also Be Sure To Bookmark:
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/Draftcheat/Sedler)
- DFS MLB Chat Room
- DFS MLB Ownership Projections
- Daily MLB Projections & Optimizer
- MLB Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
Sunday’s main slate will feature 10 games and a roster lock of 1:05 PM ET/10:05 AM PT. FanDuel’s slate will not include both SEA/TEX and PIT/COL, which means it will not include two of the best hitting parks in today’s slate. Lets keep the momentum going and finish out the season strong with a big September. One big thing to keep in mind is that the month of September means A TON of call-ups. There should be more value available once rosters get released, so don’t be afraid to take a flier on a punt.
Twins/Tigers: A chance of showers earlier in the day, which makes me believe we’ll have a late start, but I’m thinking it’ll play.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center
*Not all Vegas information was available at the time of research (MIL/CHC)
1) Houston Astros (-300)
2) Washington Nationals (-260)
3t) Tampa Bay Rays (-215)
3t) Minnesota Twins (-215)
Highest Run Expectancy
1) New York Yankees (6.03)
2) Houston Astros (5.87)
3) Minnesota Twins (5.69)
4) Washington Nationals (5.35)
Lowest Run Expectancy
1) Toronto Blue Jays (3.13)
2) Miami Marlins (3.15)
3) Cleveland Indians (3.4)
4) Cincinnati Reds (3.74)
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Max Scherzer||- - -||179.10||2.46||0.247||2.97||3.24||2.90||33.50||18.20||48.30||64.10%||43.50%||34.10||15.90%||50.30%||5.20||68.50%||33.70%||84.30||17.00%||48.40%||34.50%||1.15||46.70%||94.50||8.20|
TODAY’S BEST PITCHERS
1) Justin Verlander, Astros (DK: $12000; FD: $11900) – JV’s 10+ K streak was broken in his last start, but it actually wasn’t because his start ended prematurely when he was thrown out of the game, it was because the Rays were making some contact. I wouldn’t sweat it though. Verlander is a gamer who should be primed to rebound from that outing against the team with the 7th highest K/rate in baseball.
2) Patrick Corbin, Nationals (DK: $11100; FD: $11200) – You could make an argument that Corbin has been a top 5 pitcher in baseball this season, especially in the category of CONSISTENCY. He has hit the 40+ point mark in 11 of his last 13 starts, and has been absolutely spectacular at home where he is maintaining a sub-2 ERA and a sub-1 WHIP. You can take the slight discount from JV and feel very confident in playing Corbin. I would say he doesn’t pack as much upside, but he should be able to provide plenty of floor.
3) Aaron Brooks, Orioles (DK: $4700; FD: $6100) – If we expect to be able to load up with premium bats on DK while rostering either Verlander or Corbin, we have to find some supreme value, and I think the only option here is Brooks. He has uncharacteristically performed well over his last two starts, and really the only common theme I can find from those starts is the fact that his slider was really working well. Obviously, one of those starts was against the Royals, and it’s not a surprise that slider was working well because PITCHf/x tells us that the Royals are the 2nd worst in baseball against the slider.
4) Yu Darvish, Cubs (DK: $10200; FD: $9000) (don’t play if Lucroy is catching)
5) Miles Mikolas, Cardinals (DK: $7100; FD: $6700)
6) Sean Manaea, A’s (DK: $8200; FD: $5500)
*Best home run parks*
1) Coors Field (Pirates at Rockies)
2) Yankee Stadium (A’s at Yankees)
3) Globe Life Park (Mariners at Rangers)
4) Nationals Park (Marlins at Nationals)
(click on link above)
We have a brand new stolen base target tool on the site. I strongly recommend looking it over in order to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player is to steal tonight.
HOT STREAKS (Hottest Hitters at Each Position)
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
BATTER VS. PITCHER
C – Yadier Molina, Tucker Barnhart, Jonathan Lucroy
1B – Justin Smoak, Miguel Cabrera, Dan Vogelbach
2B – Josh VanMeter, Jurickson Profar, Ronny Rodriguez
3B – Eugenio Suarez
SS – Marcus Semien, Willy Adames
OF – Marcell Ozuna, Aaron Judge, Christian Yelich
For More BvP info check out our BvP Matchup Page
OVERALL HITTER RANKINGS
1) Yadier Molina, Cardinals
2) Jacob Stallings, Pirates
3) Pedro Severino, Orioles
4) Yan Gomes, Nationals
Notes: I sense that Stallings will be among the most popular options on DK, and that Molina will be overlooked. Still, my model has Molina above Stallings thanks to his solid history against Tyler Mahle (4-for-8 with a homer) and scorching hot bat this week (9-for-15 with four homers, two doubles, and eight RBIs).
1) Josh Bell, Pirates
2) Ji-Man Choi, Rays
3) Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
4) Howie Kendrick, Nationals
Notes: Josh Bell was made for Coors Field. Obviously, he’s super expensive so you should only roster him if you have the funds. Ji-Man Choi is more reasonably priced and happens to be tearing the cover off the ball. Cabrera is only a value option on DK. Kendrick is only a value option on FD.
1) Hanser Alberto, Orioles
2) Jose Altuve, Astros
3) Ronny Rodriguez, Tigers
4) Nick Solak, Rangers
Notes: Sooo, last week, we had Alberto go up against a lefty, but had to take a bad beat because he left the game early due to an injury. Since then, we’ve seen him do some damage against lefties throughout the week, and that was capped by a big 5-for-6 game on Friday against these Royals.
1) Abraham Toro, Astros
2) Colin Moran, Pirates
3) Nolan Arenado, Rockies
4) Starlin Castro, Marlins
Notes: Toro is no lock to start today, but if he does, he’s easily the best value available. Of course on DK, that’s rostering someone by sacrificing the option of rostering a Coors bat. Also, if you’re not rostering Corbin, I don’t mind Starlin Castro’s value at all on FD.
1) Marcus Semien, A’s
2) Kevin Newman, Pirates
3) Trevor Story, Rockies
4) Mike Freeman, Indians
Notes: I could have easily ranked Semien, Newman, and Story 1a, 1b, and 1c, but I am going to likely play Semien because of his prowess against J.A. Happ (9-for-21 with three homers). It’s actually beyond the BvP though. Semien decided to have his coming out party this season at Age 28 and has four multi-hit games this week alone. If you need a punt option, I don’t mind playing Mike Freeman on FD.
1) Starling Marte, Pirates
2) Ian Desmond, Rockies
3) Aaron Judge, Yankees
4) George Springer, Astros
5) Mark Canha, A’s
6) Bryan Reynolds, Pirates
7) Max Kepler, Twins
8) Anthony Santander, Orioles
9) Michael Brantley, Astros
10) Trey Mancini, Orioles
11) Seth Brown, A’s
Notes: Lots of big, expensive names, and not so much value. Obviously, we’re going to want to get a piece of the big names, but when the most obvious value available is Seth Brown in a LvL matchup, we’ll have to wait until lineups come out to see what kind of value we can extract. Hopefully it won’t be Lewis Brinson.