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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Thursday, August 1st
What’s going on, Mafia? This article will be focusing on cash game contests for Thursday’s MAIN MLB slates on DraftKings and FanDuel starting at 7:05 pm EST. We have a short, 6-game slate.
The NFL preseason kicks off tonight, so I’m interested in seeing if there will be some folks taking the night off to watch Drew Lock toss TDs to Nick Williams in Canton OH. If you are into that thing, Ryan Clifford will have breakdown of the Single game tonight. Now back to baseball, rather August baseball. Tonight, Gerrit Cole and Clayton Kershaw are the top priced options. I’ll break those two down some more later. We have few new faces after the trade deadline, usually the sites will warn you that new players won’t score points. I highly doubt they have fixed the roster changes, but you never know.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
No line available on TOR/BAL.
- LAD -195
- HOU -186
- ATL -151
- STL -130
Highest Run Expectancy
- BOS 5.6
- HOU 5
- TB 5
- ATL 5
Lowest Run Expectancy
- SD 3.3
- CLE 3.5
- CHC 4
- CIN 4.1
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Dodgers ($10,700 DK / $11,400 FD)I am going to assume most will save $600 on DraftKings for Kershaw tonight. The Padres lineup has seen Kershaw twice and each matchup he won and 5 or more Ks. With the game starting at 10:10 EST, he is the perfect late-night hammer to push you up over the cash line.
2) Gerrit Cole, RHP, Astros ($11,300 DK / $11,700 FD) Cole brings his 38% K rate to Cleveland against suddenly hot bats of the Indians. The lineup has a .186 team ISO v RHPs. They have some success against Cole, but they have a 33% K and 32% Whiff% against him. I am fine with him on FanDuel.
3) Jon Lester, LHP, Cubs ($8,200 DK / $8,900 FD) Coming off a dominate performance, Lester faces a familiar foe. The Cards lineup has a .303 wOBA against Lester, with a 25% K rate. Against LHPs, the projected lineup has a .222 ISO v LHPs. However, since June 1st, Lester has only had one game with less than 5Ks.
4) Jack Flaherty, RHP, Cardinals ($8,600 DK / $8,500 FD) In July, Flaherty has scored over 18 DraftKings points the last 4 starts with over 7Ks in each. The Cubs lineup can be scary with a .233 ISO v RHP but the strikeout at 22%. The roster however has a 33% K rate against him with a 35% whiff%.
5) Max Fried, LHP, Braves ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD) With the biggest price difference, Fried’s salary dropped $2,000, after a 6 K win against the Phillies. WTF! The matchup against a Reds team has a team ISO of .166 and 18% K rate shouldn’t have scared the pricing folks. Fried’s price will certainly make him a popular Cash play. With 5 of his last 6 games with 6Ks or more, he’s the chalk SP2.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Fenway Park – 11.5% runs above average, 45.9% 2B’s above average
2) SunTrust Park – 12.9% runs above average, 21.3% HR’s above average, 32.4% 2B’s above average
3) Camden Yards – 12.3% runs above average, 34.7% HR’s above average, 11% Hits above average, 22.4% 3B’s above average
Things To Target (Against)
1) Danny Salazar, RHP, Indians: first start since 2017. Had a 2.00HR/9 at home against LHHs.
2) Brendan McKay, LHP, Rays: 0.93HR/9, 34% hard contact.
3) Andrew Cashner, RHP, Red Sox: 1.96hr/9 and .346 wOBA v RHHs.
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Matt Wieters
1B – Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Eric Hosmer
2B – Jose Altuve
3B – Justin Turner
SS – Paul DeJong, Manny Machado
OF – Tommy Pham, AJ Pollock, Ender Inciarte
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Brian McCann, Braves
- Willson Contreras, Cubs
- Chance Sisco, Orioles
- Christian Vasquez, Red Sox
McCann has a .358 wOBA against RHP and 54% hard-hit% the last 2 weeks. Contreras’ has a 50% hard-hit% the last 2 weeks, 2nd on team with .259 ISO. 6 homers off RHPs for Sisco, with a .302 BA at home. Vasquez has a .250 ISO and a 32% hard-hit% v LHHs.
- Freddie Freeman, Braves
- Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
- Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals
- Trey Mancini, Orioles
Freeman has a .267 ISO on the season and 14 HRs at home v RHPs. Rizzo has the team high in hard-hit% v RHP and profiles great again Flaherty’s Slider. Goldy has 7 homers in the last 8 games. Mancini has a .446 ISO and a 47% hard-hit% the last 14 days.
- Jose Altuve, Astros
- Cavan Biggio, Blue Jays
- Ozzie Albies, Braves
- Max Muncy, Dodgers
Altuve has .370 ISO the last 14 days. All 8 homers for Biggio have come off RHPs, ballpark is ideal for lefties. Albies has 10 homers and a .367 BA in Sun Trust. Muncy has 9 homers off LHPs with a .232 ISO this season.
- Rafael Devers, Red Sox
- Alex Bregman, Astros
- Jose Ramirez, Indians
- Manny Machado, Padres
Devers has increased his batted ball distance by 35ft while maintaining 46% hard-hit% and .407 ISO the last 15 days. Bregman has been getting unlucky with a .172 BABIP the last 2 weeks. However, he still has a league high 61% hard-hit% the last 2 weeks. Ramirez has 6 homers, a 50% hard-hit% and .436 ISO the last 2 weeks. Manny has had some success against Kershaw taking him deep twice in 9 at bats.
- Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
- Javy Baez, Cubs
- Bo Bichette, Blue Jays
- Carlos Correa, Astros
Bogaerts has a .287 ISO and 50% hard-hit% against LHPs. Baez has a .245 ISO against RHP this season. Bichette hit his first homer yesterday and still cheap on FanDuel. Correa has 2 homers since he’s been activated from the IL.
- JD Martinez, Red Sox
- Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
- Mookie Betts, Red Sox
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros
- Austin Meadows, Rays
- Kyle Schwarber, Cubs
- Anthony Santander, Orioles
- Teoscar Hernandez, Blue Jays
- Adam Duvall, Braves
- George Springer, Astros
Team high .478 ISO against LHPs, Martinez has 3 homers in the last 5 games. Bellinger really is starting to become matchup proof, has 11 homers and .311 ISO v LHPs. Betts as a.358 ISO and 43% hard-hit% over the last 14 days. Yordan Alvarez has 13 homers in 35 games. Meadows is starting to get out of his slump; homered yesterday and has the highest hard-hit% at 56.7% the last 2 weeks. Schwarber leads the Cubs with a .275 ISO v RHPs. Santander has been swinging a hot bat with a 1.094 OPS and .328 ISO the last 13 games. Hernandez have been on a mini tear lately; league high .465 ISO and 6 homers the last 2 weeks. Duvall will be on revenge mode this weekend against his former team; 3 homers in 2 games. Springer is always capable of a leadoff homer and sits at a 56% hard-hit% the last 2 weeks.