For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Wednesday, July 3rd
Let’s face it, Monday was a complete disaster. A five game slate with weather issues, zero pitching and surprisingly little hitting was likely never going to go well unless we happened to hit the nuts. Which thanks to me, I doubt any of us did.
But then right as we were going live on the DFS MLB Now Livestream we received the news about Angels LHP Tyler Skaggs passing away in Arlington Texas. That was a gut punch to all of us I am sure. The Angels/Rangers game being cancelled just confirmed that the Monday slate of DFS was just not going to go well and it certainly did not. I think I texted DC that I was done before the first inning of the Pirates/Cubs game was over.
Yesterday I left the complete writeup to Ted. Usually I will be flying around, texting him my thoughts about this or that and trying to get him to change his favorite pitcher for one reason or another. But I stayed away from baseball last night. I watched the beginning of the Angels/Rangers game, had tears roll down my face as they took the moment of silence then turned off the games in favor of a Survivor rerun that my family wanted to watch. I needed to clear my mind in order to properly absorb this 14-game Wednesday slate.
What I did tonight was let the numbers speak for me. I’ve built this cash game model after almost a decade of DFS play and I did so in order to always have a crutch to lean on when I get my legs taken out. Monday truly took me out and I needed to step away for a moment in order to jump back in.
But I am feeling better heading into Wednesday. This is a strange slate to have mostly night games considering the Fourth of July is tomorrow and most of the games are taking place during the day. By the way, we will have all day content for you guy tomorrow including a Livestream at 11am ET.
Tonight, we have some real funky pricing on Fanduel. John Fricking Means (legal name) is the fourth highest pitcher at $8400 while Astros bats in Coors Field are shockingly affordable. If you recall, the last time I paid up for a pitcher it was Chris Sale against…the Blue Jays. Tonight he draws them once again and I am sure that he’ll smash this time around. But with this many games being played, there are a lot of “unknown” pitchers that I have dug into while the family was watching Survivor so I have a pretty good feeling on these arms.
Coors Field in July with the current state of major league baseballs is just unfair. Last week we saw the Yankees and Red Sox tear up London with 50 runs being scored over just two games. Now we have warm weather in Colorado and the balls are flying all over the joint. With Wade Miley and Peter Lambert on the mound, we almost have to invest in this game somehow.
It’s been a roller coaster couple of days in and around MLB. Are we over it? Nah. Will we ever be? Who knows? But we have a job to do and that is to diagnose the advantages we own in DFS MLB tonight and going forward then hammer it to better our situation. I’ve faced a lot of adversity in my life including the loss of both my parents, Grandparents and one of my best friends. The one thing you learn is to keep moving forward and that is what we are going to do tonight.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (early game) –There is some light to moderate rain moving in later in the evening. Given the Nats infatuation with cancelling games, we need to at least monitor this situation closely.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates –Pop up storms in the greater Pittsburgh area right before game time so possibly a short delay here but there isn’t much risk for anything significant.
- BOS -265
- LAD -260
- CLE -160
- ATL -140
- SD -140
Highest Run Expectancy
- HOU 6.93
- COL 6.57
- BOS 5.67
- LAA 5.65
- ATL 5.58
- CIN 5.54
Lowest Run Expectancy
- ARI 2.71
- TOR 3.33
- SF 3.95
- KC 4.12
- BAL 4.20
- DET 4.38
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Name||Team||IP||ERA||BABIP||FIP||xFIP||SIERA||GB%||LD%||FB%||F-Strike%||Zone%||K%||SwStr%||Swing%||BB%||Contact%||O-Swing%||LOB%||Soft%||Med%||Hard%||HR/9||FA% (pfx)||vFA (pfx)||FA-Z (pfx)|
1) Chris Sale, LHP, Red Sox ($11,200/$11,800) –Sale has been a strikeout machine this season. Over his last 11 starts, he’s averaging 49.3 FD points per game which includes a whopping 10.5 strikeouts per game. His last outing against the Blue Jays didn’t go well but he did strikeout 8 in five innings while only giving up three runs. The Blue Jays own the second worst BA in MLB at .232, the fourth worst wOBA at .301 and sixth worst strikeout rate at 24.4% this season. Randal Grichuk has owned Sale somehow throughout his career but the rest of this Blue Jays team has hit just .227 with a .297 wOBA over his career. It’s very likely that Sale racks up the most raw points of any pitcher here tonight. But at $11K, it’ll be hard to fit any of these Coors Field bats in with him.
2) Walker Buehler, RHP, Dodgers ($10,100/$10,900) – Hey, if you’re going to pay a premium price for a high-end pitcher, you might as well do it for an exceptional arm at a discounted price because of a fluky beatdown in his last outing. Buehler got “rocked” (see what I did there?) in Coors Field against Colorado giving up 13 hits and 7 earned runs. Of course, he also dominated the Rockies over a complete game striking out 16 the outing before that. So, I am not going to punish or downgrade him for the clunker in Coors. Tonight he gets an Arizona team that has started to cool down finally. The D-Backs are hitting just .254 with a .289 wOBA and .120 ISO over the last week. Buehler has dominated Arizona in his career surrendering a .180 BA and .218 wOBA with 26.9% strikeout rate.
3) Domingo German, RHP, Yankees ($8100/$10,100) – This is a Fanduel only play because the price difference is absurd. German has missed nearly a month due to a hip strain that was more of a precautionary measure than anything. He threw a rehab outing at Scranton last Thursday where his fastball hit 96 MPH and he was allowed to throw 65 pitches. In four innings he struck out five. Going to a National League park and facing the pitcher will give him some strikeout upside and even if he is only going to throw 80 pitches that can get him through five and maybe six. I’m willing to take a chance at the $8100 FD price here tonight.
4) Griffin Canning, RHP, Angels ($8000/$8700) – Unfortunately there isn’t the ideal setup of a great arm versus a weak opponent at a mid-tier price here tonight. But Canning against the Texas Rangers is as close as we are going to get. The Angels played inspired last night scoring 9 runs against Mike Minor and I expect them to do so once again tonight. Canning dominated the Rangers in his only start against them this year striking out five in five innings. The Rangers struck out 10 times last night and are hitting just .218 with a .262 wOBA and 28.5% strikeout rate over the last week.
5) Bryse Wilson, RHP, Braves ($5700/$7300) – Man, Draftkings is going to be difficult on pitching tonight. Still, I am a big fan of Wilson’s arm and have considered him the best of the Braves young prospect arms. His fastball is really three pitches folded into one. He can run it up to 97 MPH with arm-side run, can cut it to a 91 MPH speed with crossarm movement and can make it drop like Beyonce’s booty in the ‘Drunk In Love” video. His slider is also a pretty darn good pitch that generates a lot of swings and misses itself. For a young pitcher, Wilson has great command and presence on the hill. He’s the type that is never overwhelmed and can pitch out of jams. It’s not an ideal matchup for him against the Phillies but at $5700 on FD there is little concern of him not reaching value.
6) Cal Quantrill, RHP, Padres ($5800/$5000) –There isn’t much here other than Quantrill is getting the start tonight against the lowly Giants. His price on both sites is fantastic of course but he will miss bats and put himself in line for a win tonight too.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Coors Field – 63.9% above average in runs, 38.1% above average in HR’s, 30.2% above average in 2B, 222.9% above average in 3B.
2) Great American Ballpark –18.6% above average in runs, 20.3% above average in HR’s, 6.8% above average in 2B.
3) SunTrust Park –16.3% above average in runs, 28.0% above average in HR’s, 25.2% above average in 2B.
4) Guarantee Rate Field –12.8% above average in runs, 30.9% above average in HR’s.
5) PNC Park –17.1% above average in runs, 2.7% above average in HR’s, 28.7% above average in 2B, 46.3% above average in 3B.
6) Globe Life Park –4.5% above average in runs, 10.2% above average in HR’s, 32.0% above average in 3B.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Peter Lambert, Rockies – .305 BAA, 4.61 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP,25.9% HR/FB%, 2.55 HR/9, 7.3% swinging strike rate, 44.8% hard contact rate.
2) Mike Leake, Mariners – .277 BAA, 4.64 xFIP, 35.5% FB%, 18.3% HR/FB%, 1.93 HR/9, 7.8% swinging strike rate, 40.9% hard contact rate.
3) Jhoulys Chacin, Brewers – .262 BAA, 5.54 xFIP, 1.52 WHIP, 40.0% FB%, 17.0% HR/FB%, 1.87 HR/9, 7.6% swinging strike rate, 45.1% hard contact rate.
4) Wade Miley, Astros– 4.30 xFIP, 16.5% HR/FB%, 1.32 HR/9, 36.7% hard contact rate.
5) Danny Duffy, Royals – .256 BAA, 5.10 xFIP, 41.1% FB%, 12.9% HR/FB%, 1.43 HR/9, 35.6% hard contact rate.
6) Adam Wainwright, Cardinals –.256 BAA, 4.28 xFIP, 16.9% HR/FB%, 1.20 HR/9, 7.2% swinging strike rate, 42.5% hard contact rate.
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Brian McCann, Chris Iannetta, Buster Posey
1B – Edwin Encarnacion, Anthony Rizzo, Joey Votto, Freddie Freeman, Carlos Santana, Paul Goldschmidt
2B – DJ LeMahieu, Derek Dietrich, Jason Kipnis, Dee Gordon, Kolten Wong
3B – Eugenio Suarez, David Fletcher, Nolan Arenado, Jose Ramirez, Evan Longoria
SS – Javier Baez, Freddy Galvis, Didi Gregorius, Francisco Lindor, Brandon Crawford
OF – Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, Corey Dickerson, Jason Heyward, Randal Grichuk, Yasiel Puig, Lorenzo Cain, Kole Calhoun, Jorge Soler
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Gary Sanchez, Yankees
- Brian McCann, Braves
- Chris Iannetta, Rockies
- James McCann, White Sox
- Stephen Vogt, Giants
Quick reminder that when you are profiling hitters tonight or any night, be sure to also factor in the bullpens they are facing. Catcher is still a shitty position tonight but it helps knowing Gary Sanchez will face Jason Vargas and a terrible Mets bullpen. Same goes for Brian McCann who is solid against Nick Pivetta’s curveball but also against the Phillies bullpen. Robinson Chirinos grades out almost identically with Stephen Vogt but since he is in Coors tonight it is pretty easy to identify him.
- Freddie Freeman, Braves
- Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
- Eric Hosmer, Padres
- Carlos Santana, Indians
- Jose Abreu, White Sox
Freeman is 7-23 (.304) lifetime against Nick Pivetta with a 2B, 3B & HR. Rizzo hasn’t gone off yet at PNC Park this week but very well could tonight against Chris Archer. Rizzo owns a 1.010 OPS in his career at PNC Park. Hosmer is one of the hottest hitters in baseball right now pulling a .545 BA and .605 wOBA over his last six games.
- Jose Altuve, Astros
- Max Muncy, Dodgers
- Keston Hiura, Brewers
- Gleyber Torres, Yankees
- Rougned Odor, Rangers
Jose Altuve having seven hits over his last 10 AB’s while heading into Coors Field is a better setup than the pizza deliver guy ringing the doorbell at a College dorm at the beginning of a porno. Muncy has been on fire hitting 3 HRs and posting a .476 ISO over the last week. Hiura offers us some price relief here and has picked right up where he left off upon his recall for AAA.
- Nolan Arenado, Rockies
- Matt Chapman, A’s
- Manny Machado, Padres
- Eugenio Suarez, Reds
- Jeimer Candelario, Tigers
Arenado at home against a lefty is just an autoplay so he gets the top spot here tonight. Third base is pretty much a spot you will pay up for tonight. Matt Chapman is slashing a .333/.429/1.000 with 3 HR and 9 RBI over his last five games. Machado sat out yesterday with a one game suspension but should be back in the lineup against the gas can Shaun Anderson tonight. I am including Jeimer Candelario as the lone value option at 3B tonight. Candelario is taking more pitches (4.7 P/PA) and is hitting .444 over the last week. He is much better from the right side too owning a career slash line of .282/.347/.455 against LHP.
- Trevor Story, Rockies
- Alex Bregman, Astros
- Fernando Tatis Jr., Padres
- Francisco Lindor, Indians
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers
The Trevor Story/Nolan Arenado stack is going to be the most popular of the slate right in front of the Jose Altuve/Alex Bregman one. Fernando Tatis is pure fire right now hitting .450 with a .569 wOBA, .450 ISO and 260 wRC+ over the last week. Chris Taylor has also been on fire and should be back in the starting lineup tonight. As you should be noticing, there aren’t a lot of quality value options for hitters tonight which is why using Chris Sale or Walker Buehler would be a challenge.
- Ian Desmond, Rockies
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros
- Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
- Franmil Reyes, Padres
- JD Martinez, Red Sox
- Joey Gallo, Rangers
- Tommy Pham, Rays
- Yasiel Puig, Reds
- Eloy Jimenez, White Sox
- Aaron Judge, Yankees
- George Springer, Astros
- Kyle Schwarber, Cubs
Obviously we need to get some Coors exposure and the outfield is bustling with opportunity this evening. Desmond is severely underpriced and Alvarez is also a flyball machine. There are some real good value OF’ers with multiple HR opportunity like Puig, Eloy and Schwarber who have been making hard contact and are each facing pitchers who surrender the longball.