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For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- Evening Slate Breakdown – Conquer tonight’s Evening Slate!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Thursday, June 27th
What’s going on Elite Mafia. I am writing this from my resort cabin in the Great Smokey Mountains in Gatlinburg, TN. Such a great place to vacation. I’d recommend it solo or as a family destination. We have yet to see a bear but besides that, the trip has been great. A few more days and we head back to West Virginia. The one downside to this trip is the phone service. Obviously, being deep in the woods, cell phones aren’t very useful. My cabin is running as slow as 56k. If you are too young to know what 56K is, then well, I guess I am old.
As Jeff mentioned yesterday, I am going to covering some MLB Cash Breakdowns. I am super excited for the chance to write and I hope to continue the success of this brand of articles the rest of the season.
This article will be focusing on the “EARLY” MLB slate that consists of 6 games. The livestream will be handled by Tommy G and DraftCheat at 11am. Tommy will also be dropping his GPP article for this slate too.
The few “top $$” arms threw yesterday and end up increasing their ERAs. Only Trevor Bauer and Mike Minor held true to their prices and dominated. The rest of the arms where letdowns. Hopefully, that doesn’t happen today.
Let’s get at it for early June 27th! Here is my FIRST DFS MLB Cash Game Breakdown!
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
- HOU -199
- MIL -178
- PHI -134
- TEX -113
Highest Run Expectancy
- MIL 5.8
- HOU 5.7
- TEX 4.9
- PHI 4.9
Lowest Run Expectancy
- PIT 3.9
- NYM 4.2
- SEA 4.3
- DET 4.7
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Brad Peacock, RHP, Astros ($7,900/$9,400) A much better value on FanDuel, Peacock has the highest K % on the slate against the Pirates. He is the highest favorite at -200. This Pirates team exploded last night; however, I am onboard with Peacock because of the K upside in CASH. The Pirates have the 2nd lowest ISO on the slate against RHPs.
2) Aaron Nola, RHP, Phillies ($8,800/$10,700) Nola holds the top price spot on DK after a 10-strikeout game, which was his best of the season. Today, he faces the Mets, who rank 2nd worst on the slate in team ISO. Nola is very familiar with this Mets roster and he has a 26.5% K rate against them. I get very concerned when a play amasses $10K on either site, but with the pitching today, I am good with Nola despite the price tag.
3) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Mets ($9,000/$10,000) Just like Nola, Wheeler is the highest priced arm on a site today. He too is very familiar with the opposing bats. He has a 31% K rate against this Phillies roster. This season, he has 2QS, 16Ks and 1 win against the Phillies. He has the lowest hard contact rate at 33% and ranks 3rd in K%, after Peacock/Nola, at 24.8%.
4) Martin Perez, LHP, Twins ($7,000/$7,900) Perez steps on the mound against a very strikeout heavy Rays team. They sit at 26% against LHPs. They also hold the lowest ISO on the slate at .149 v LHPs. Perez has a 21% K rate and this matchup can very well be a great value play if you can’t trust the high price arms.
5) Ariel Jurado, RHP, Rangers ($6,800/$6,700) The next value play Ariel Jurado. The Tiger’s opposing pitchers are always setup for success on paper. The Tigers still own a 26% K rate and dreadful team ISO of .159. Jurado has had his string of solid outings and today he gets a nice ballpark upgrade. His K% isn’t spectacular but this matchup should provide enough floor for CASH.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Comerica Park –13.5% above average for runs, 2% above average in HRs, 88.5% above average in triples.
2) Miller Park – 6.6% above average for runs, 22.7% above average in HRs.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Bryse Wilson, RHP, Braves – called up from Triple-A, this 21 y/o has started one game this year allowing 1 HR and 4ERs, back on 3/30/19. Has been hit hard at a 66% rate, in his small sample.
2) Mike Leake, RHP, Mariners – 39.3% hard contact rate with a 7.8% swinging strike rate. 41% of hits are 95mph plus. RHHs have a .257 ISO and LHHs have a .217 ISO against him.
3) Spencer Turnbull, RHP, Tigers – Allows a slate high .352 xwOBA. He has allowed 1.42HR/9 with a 45% hard contact rate to LHHs in Comerica.
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|10||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||161||698||48||123||111||4||12.3||15.80||0.290||0.313||0.311||0.401||0.601||0.419||166|
|13||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|16||Frank Schwindel||- - -||64||259||14||44||43||2||6.2||15.80||0.264||0.348||0.326||0.371||0.591||0.403||152|
|17||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||130||546||42||99||97||25||11.4||28.00||0.328||0.324||0.282||0.364||0.611||0.403||156|
|22||Kyle Schwarber||- - -||113||471||32||76||71||1||13.6||27.00||0.288||0.306||0.266||0.374||0.554||0.392||145|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Mike Zunino, J.T. Realmuto, Brian McCann, Robinson Chirinos
1B – Eric Thames, Freddie Freeman
2B – Cesar Hernandez,
3B – Maikel Franco
SS – Jorge Polanco
OF – Tommy Pham, Guillermo Heredia, Lorenzo Cain, Ryan Braun
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Yasmani Grandal, Brewers
- J.T. Realmuto, Phillies
- Brian McCann, Braves
- Mike Zunino, Rays
If Grandal is leading off against Mike Leake today, I am very much interested in him. Grandal over the last 14 days has a .350 ISO. Realmuto and McCann are the BVP plays. McCann sits at a 50% hard hit % and a .231 the last 2 weeks. Zunino has taken Perez deep 3 times, let’s hope he is behind the plate.
- Rhys Hoskins, Phillies
- Josh Bell, Pirates
- Freddie Freeman, Braves
- C. J. Cron, Twins
First base is always loaded and today features some of the hottest hitters. Hoskins has been an absolute tear. He owns a .285 ISO against RHPs and currently is hitting 73% flyballs with a 44% hard-hit. #1 Dong Detector call. Josh Bell has continued to hold a 50% hard-hit% and he has double dong upside. Freddie Freeman is well Freddie Freeman and is always right there with those two above. C. J. Cron is a bat that is heating up. He has 2 homers his last 4 games and with LHP Beeks expected to long relief for Rays, Cron is very much in play. He has a .313 ISO against LHP.
- Jose Altuve, Astros
- Mike Moustakas, Brewers
- Rougned Odor, Rangers
- Ozzie Albies, Braves
Jose Altuve is back and he has a .222 ISO the last 2 weeks. He also has a 50% hard-hit% since his return from IL. Moustakas’ matchup against Leake is prefect and adding to his 22 homers is a strong possibility. Odor faces another “pitcher to attack” and has a 34% hard-hit% and an increase in flyballs by 9%.
- Josh Donaldson, Braves
- Kris Bryant, Cubs
- Yuli Gurriel, Astros
- Travis Shaw, Brewers
Donaldson hasn’t returned to MVP form yet, but this month he has started to heat up with 5 homers the last 2 weeks along with a 43% hard-hit%. Bryant homered last night and should be in line for another against a weak starter and overused bullpen. Shaw is a value bat that can help round out a stack and/or get you some more exposure against Leake.
- Alex Bregman, Astros
- Javy Baez, Cubs
- Jorge Polanco, Twins
- Gordon Beckham, Tigers
Bregman sits atop the SS list today easily, with his .295 ISO the last 2 weeks. Baez owns a .245 ISO the last 14 days and the winds in Wrigley should boost this flyball hitter. Jorge Polanco should be leading off with a few injuries. He has .252 ISO against RHPs and 47% flyball rate. Finally, Gordon Beckham is a stat cast monster and a near min salary should be a great punt if he is in the lineup.
- Joey Gallo, Rangers
- Christian Yelich, Brewers
- Nomar Mazara, Rangers
- Shin-Soo Choo, Rangers
- Ronald Acuna, Braves
- Domingo Santana, Mariners
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros
- Bryce Harper, Phillies
- Nick Markakis, Braves
- Ryan Braun, Brewers
Rangers lead the way! Yes, that’s right, I will be loading up on the LHHs for Texas. Gallo is back and has yet to do deep but he’s my #2 Dong Detector bat. Mazara, Choo and him all have a .450 plus wOBA against sinkers, a pitch Turnbull throws 25% to LHHs. Yelich smashes cutters and that Leake’s 2nd most pitch to LHHs. Domingo has his last chance this series to get his revenge with a homer.