For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
- The Opening Line
Tuesday, June 25th
Hey hey!! This is my first Tuesday Cash Game Breakdown in a while, but I’m pretty damn pumped up as we have a full 15 game slate to breakdown here. What’s better is that we’re just scorching the earth these days as last night was once against on point. Those Phillies bats at sub 8% owned across the board really helped differentiate our lineups last night.
Last night I made two lineups, one with Eduardo Rodriguez that generated 146.7 FD points and another lineup with CC Sabathia that crushed and racked up 173.5 FD points. Luckily, I played each lineup in the right contests as E-Rod was cash and CC GPP. When you’re running hotm, you’re running hot.
On today’s SiriusXM show I am going to breakdown my new DFS metric that I announced here last month called 6+. What I like about this stat is that it really pulls us toward those players that put up the most big point generators. I’ve been tinkering with a 6+ rate and have been using this behind the scenes for a couple of weeks now too. We all know that the studs like Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger are going to grade out highly on any stats you roll out but what 6+ does is reward those players who just do the events we covet most.
Here is a quick rundown of the top 6+Point and Ratio generators for 2019 so far:
1. Christian Yelich 64
2. Adalberto Mondesi 57
3. Cody Bellinger 51
Josh Bell 51
Trevor Story 51
6. Mike Trout 49
Whit Merrifield 49
8. Pete Alonso 46
9. Freddie Freeman 45
Ketel Marte 45
Javier Baez 45
12. Elvis Andrus 44
Charlie Blackmon 44
14. Xander Bogaerts 43
Jonathan Villar 43
Byron Buxton 43
17. Mookie Betts 42
18. Mike Moustakas 41
Eduardo Escobar 41
Marcell Ozuna 41
Top-10 in 6+Rate
1. Christian Yelich .203
2. Byron Buxton .189
3. Adalberto Mondesi .183
4. Hunter Renfroe .160
5. Cody Bellinger .157
6. Josh Bell .155
Trevor Story .155
8. Charlie Blackmon .152
9. Elvis Andrus .147
Anthony Rendon .147
The goal of this stat is to identify the players who on any given day, even at their worst can cause an event that generates more than just the minimum point total. If you notice that BB, HBP, 1B, R & RBI are all worth just 3.5 of less points on FD. On DK they are all worth 3 or less points as well. We want to load up our lineups with the players who are doing the things that create the most points. I have really enjoyed putting this metric together and believe its been helping us quite a bit identifying the right hitters to target night after night.
Alright, on to this evening. We have a full 15 game slate upon us which is quite exciting to me. The pitching is pretty wild here as we have three or maybe four absolute studs at the top of the spectrum tonight. The problem in breaking down these pitchers was that the mid-tier and value options are how should we say…dog shit? Yeah that would be the best term that I can think of for it. But don’t worry, folks. I went deep on this slate and feel like we do have a couple solid options for us on the mound.
The hitters are amazing when you compare it to last night. When you have every team in MLB going, the amount of options is limitless. The interesting thing about hitters here is that most of the most hitter friendly ballparks are not in play today or tomorrow. When this happens, Vegas lowers totals and leaves lazy ass DFS analysts plum out of ideas. This is where we strike.
I won’t waste anymore of your time. We have 15 games, weather issues, marginal at best value pitchers and about 400 hitters to go through.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Chicago White Sox at Boston Red Sox –There will be rain throughout the afternoon and early evening in Boston. Teams are getting pretty weak when it comes to actually playing through rain these days so this one could be in some trouble. I’d think they can play through some light rain and find a large enough window to get it in but you need to keep an eye out this afternoon.
- HOU -270
- CLE -230
- NYY -220
- WAS -215
- MIL -170
- BOS -170
Highest Run Expectancy
- NYY 6.02
- CLE 5.80
- BOS 5.75
- HOU 5.62
- PHI 5.59
- MIL 5.57
Lowest Run Expectancy
- MIA 2.73
- PIT 2.88
- ARI 3.40
- KC 3.70
- COL 3.72
- OAK 3.96
Today's Pitchers Grid
|Name||Team||IP||ERA||BABIP||FIP||xFIP||SIERA||GB%||LD%||FB%||F-Strike%||Zone%||K%||SwStr%||Swing%||BB%||Contact%||O-Swing%||LOB%||Soft%||Med%||Hard%||HR/9||FA% (pfx)||vFA (pfx)||FA-Z (pfx)|
1)Max Scherzer, RHP, Nationals ($12,200/$12,400) –Here we are again. Max Scherzer, perhaps the best pitcher in baseball going up against the Miami Marlins, the perhaps worst hitting team in MLB. Scherzer has been sensational this season and even better recently. But his worst two games of the season have both come against the Marlins. The silver lining here is that he has struck out 15 Marlins in just 11.1 innings over those two outings. I dove into why exactly Miami has gotten to Scherzer and came out with two items. For starters, they hit his slider the second time through the lineup both times. The Marlins are second worst in MLB against the slider so this is just random really. The second reason was the other thing that nips Scherzer and that is lefty power. The first time it was a HR by Curtis Granderson and the second time a clutch double by Garrett Cooper. I have no problem going back to Scherzer here if that is your thing. I don’t like the idea of paying up unless we can find some amazing value options with the sticks and I just don’t quite see that value tonight.
2) Gerrit Cole, RHP, Astros ($11,500/$11,500) – Another one of the best pitchers in MLB going up against an inferior opponent. Now usually when an NL team goes to an AL park we would upgrade their bats because of the DH, but with Jung-ho Kang being the likely DH there are just as many projected strikeouts as if the pitcher were hitting for them. We get a nearly $1K discount here from Scherzer so if you are thinking of paying up, getting one extra bat while sacrificing exactly zero skills or matchup wouldn’t be a bad idea.
3) David Price, LHP, Red Sox ($8100/$8600) – The White Sox got to my boy Eduardo Rodriguez last night but in fairness, he shouldn’t have come back out for that seventh inning. Nevertheless, everything we discussed yesterday about the White Sox lack of power against LHP holds true tonight. What we like about Price here is that he’ll be starting on seven days rest something our pitching model absolutely loves. The numbers back this up of course as Price is 22-8, 2.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 9.0 K/9 over 38 career starts on extended rest. This season alone, Price is averaging 37.3 FD points per game when pitching on 6+ days of rest compared to 26.5 FD points per game on 5 days rest.
4) Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Giants ($8300/$8200) – I missed out on Drew Pomeranz who struck out 11 Rockies hitters in just five innings last night but kudos to those of you including our own Draftcheat and Benny Ricciardi who took the plunge. Bumgarner has handled the Rockies twice already this season which includes a 43 FD point performance in Coors Field and another 46 FD point effort back on April 13thin Oracle Park. Without Trevor Story, this Rockies team is basically Nolan Arenado and that is it against LHP.
5) Chris Bassitt, RHP, A’s ($6900/$9300) – Obviously this is a FD only play as DK has priced Bassitt outrageously tonight. Though in fairness, he should be closer to the $9300 price given the way he has thrown the ball and the matchup at hand. Hence, why he grades out so well tonight at $6900. Bassitt has pitched real well this season and is averaging 31.3 FD points per game. He’s given up more than 3 ER once this season and that was 5 to the Angels back on May 27th. What I love most here is Bassitt’s curveball against this Cardinals lineup. I’ve been targeting these Cardinals against strong curves and changeups for the last few weeks and its literally worked every time. It actually makes me a little nervous because of how well its worked but at this price we cannot pass it up. He gets to face the pitcher here too which means an extra strikeout or two off of his regular projected total which gives us even more room on FD tonight.
6) Adbert Alzolay, RHP, Cubs ($7000/$6800) –To be clear, Braves starter Max Fried graded out a bit ahead of Alzolay here but I am projecting the rookie higher than Fried in this spot. The Cubs are super high on Alzolay with good reason. He is a super coachable kid that takes to guidance very well. He features a high velocity fourseam fastball that has good inside run to RHH and a wicked 12-6 curveball that is a complete put-away pitch. His changeup is a work in progress but has shown improvements this year. The Braves were set up well last night against Jon Lester and did absolutely nothing. I wouldn’t expect more than five innings out of him, six at the max but he is going to rack up the strikeouts tonight.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Camden Yards – 11.6% above average for runs, 33.6% above average in HR’s, 60.1% above average in 3B.
2) Comerica Park –13.5% above average for runs, 2% above average in HR’s, 88.5% above average in 3B.
3) Miller Park –6.6% above average for runs, 22.7% above average in HR’s.
4) Angels Stadium –9.3% above average for runs, 27.3% above average in HR’s, 8.4% above average in 2B.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Clayton Richard, Blue Jays – .290 BAA, 5.62 xFIP, 1.74 WHIP, 25.0% HR/FB%, 1.78 HR/9, 6.0% swinging strike rate, 41.9% hard contact rate.
2) Jordan Zimmermann, Tigers – .261 BAA, 5.46 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, 42.2% FB%, 13.0% HR/FB%, 1.57 HR/9, 8.5% swinging strike rate
3) Jesse Chavez, Rangers – .250 BAA, 4.38 xFIP, 15.9% HR/FB%, 1.39 HR/9, 6.2% swinging strike rate, 38.9% hard contact rate.
4) Andrew Heaney, Angels – 5.02 xFIP, 62.5% FB%, 17.5% HR/FB%, 2.49 HR/9, 46.9% hard contact rate.
5) Glenn Sparkman, Royals – .254 BAA, 5.26 xFIP, 12.1% HR/FB%, 1.37 HR/9, 6.8% swinging strike rate, 40.6% hard contact rate.
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Wilson Ramos, Russell Martin, Chris Iannetta
1B – Logan Forsythe, Lucas Duda, Mark Reynolds, Miguel Cabrera
2B – Rougned Odor, Mike Moustakas, Cesar Hernandez, Starlin Castro, Dee Gordon, Kike Hernandez
3B – DJ LeMahieu, Todd Frazier, Anthony Rendon, Nolan Arenado
SS – Nick Ahmed, Miguel Rojas, Trea Turner, Jorge Polanco, Chris Taylor
OF – Nick Castellanos, Giancarlo Stanton, Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, Nelson Cruz, Kevin Kiermaier, David Peralta, Charlie Blackmon
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Gary Sanchez, Yankees
- Willson Contreras, Cubs
- Omar Narvaez, Mariners
- JT Realmuto, Phillies
- Pedro Severino, Orioles
Sanchez went 0-4 last night against the Blue Jays but faces the gas can lefty known as Clayton Richard tonight. Richard is surrendering a 41.9% hard contact rate this season. Contreras went deep and almost ignited a brawl while rounding the bases against the Braves so there is a chance he gets hit tonight. Narvaez is just shredding this season and even better lately as he’s posting a .391/.444/.609 slash over the last week. Severino has hit 5 of his 8 HR’s and is hitting .328/.380/.609 against LHP this season.
- Pete Alonso, Mets
- Freddie Freeman, Braves
- Edwin Encarnacion, Yankees
- Christian Walker, Diamondbacks
- Ronald Guzman, Rangers
There isn’t a hotter hitter in the land than Pete Alonso. Do you realize that this dude is averaging 20.4 FD points per game since June 11th? Tonight he gets control conscience Jake Arrieta which means a lot of slow moving pitches peppering the strike zone. Edwin Encarnacion got the day off yesterday but will likely be back in the Yankees lineup tonight against Clayton Richard. The Yankees have the highest total on the board tonight and both E5 and Luke Voit would be a viable cash game option tonight. Christian Walker is heating up again and took Kershaw deep last night. Walker owns a .469 wOBA with 2 HR’s over his last six games.
- Jason Kipnis, Indians
- Cesar Hernandez, Phillies
- Rougned Odor, Rangers
- Ketel Marte, Diamondbacks
- Jose Altuve, Astros
Boom. We have a full on pay down position tonight. Jason Kipnis gets the top nod and he isn’t the only Indians player on our radar tonight against Glenn Sparkman and the Royals bullpen. Cesar Hernandez is locked in right now having 2+ hits in each of his last four games and going 13-28 (.464) over his last seven games. Odor hits an insane .348/.377/.667 with 4 HR’s and 11 XBH in 17 career games at Comerica Park. Altuve is significantly underpriced on DK at under $4K which is where I would ideally play him tonight.
- Manny Machado, Padres
- Jose Ramirez, Indians
- Todd Frazier, Mets
- Eugenio Suarez, Reds
- Rafael Devers, Red Sox
Machado should be 100% owned tonight for so many reasons. He’s been on fire over the last two weeks hitting .435/.458/.826, he’s returning to Camden Yards for the first time since being traded to the Dodgers last year and he’s facing the awful Orioles pitching staff led by Jimmy Yacabonis. Todd Frazier went yard last night, his third over the last five games. Suarez is hitting 40 points higher with 140 points higher OPS against lefties than righties this season.
- Javier Baez, Cubs
- Fernando Tatis Jr, Padres
- Elvis Andrus, Rangers
- Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox
- Chris Taylor, Dodgers
I don’t know if there is a player that I feel better using right now than Javier Baez. Of course, feeling good about it is one thing and justifying why is another. So, how about his .390 wOBA, .400 ISO and average of 19.4 FD points per game over his last five games. Baez is also hitting .327/.379/.731 against LHP this season. Tatis makes a great mini-stack with Manny Machado tonight against an Orioles staff that is terrible and employing a bullpen game. Be sure that Chris Taylor is in the lineup tonight. He was taken out of the game late and there wasn’t any reason given but we would love to get his hot bat against the southpaw in Robbie Ray.
- Bryce Harper, Phillies
- Yordan Alvarez, Astros
- Ryan Braun, Brewers
- Giancarlo Stanton, Yankees
- Nomar Mazara, Rangers
- Hunter Renfroe, Padres
- Mookie Betts, Red Sox
- Domingo Santana, Mariners
- Michael Conforto, Mets
- Ronald Acuna, Braves
- David Peralta, Diamondbacks
- Yasiel Puig, Reds
Boy there are a lot of ways to go in the outfield tonight. At the top the best are Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, Giancarlo Stanton and Ronald Acuna. Harper is in his zone right now and guaranteed to face all RHP tonight. In the mid-tier there is Yordan Alvarez who won’t be priced here much longer. Nomar Mazara has been en fuego and these Rangers bats are going to be significantly underowned tonight against the awful Jordan Zimmermann. The best values on the board in the outfield tonight are Domingo Santana who is returning to Milwaukee for the first time, Yasiel Puig who returns to LA for the first time and Ryan Braun who smashes LHP.