[responsivevoice_button voice=”UK English Female” buttontext=”Stuck in traffic? Boss looking over your shoulder? Just lazy and don’t want to read?
Click here to LISTEN!”]
For the time being, we will post our MLB Content Schedule here at the top of the article. It’ll be updated with links when each article is posted, so check back throughout the day!
Today’s Coaching Sessions
All sessions take place in the MLB chat room.
- Bullpen Coach (Phil Backert) – 9am ET
- Pitching Coach (DraftCheat) – 12pm ET
- Hitting Coach (Vlad Sedler) – 4pm ET
- Cash Game Breakdown – You’re reading it!
- The Early Bird – Conquer today’s Early Slates!
- Bullpen Coach – Everything you need to know about each team’s bullpen.
- Hitting Coach – A deep dive into the top hitters (& fades) on today’s slate.
- Pitching Coach – An in-depth breakdown of today’s starting pitchers.
- Cheat Sheet – A snapshot of the top plays at each position & salary level.
- GPP Breakdown – We use game theory, & advanced stats to uncover tonight’s low-owned studs.
- MLB NOW Livestream – A daily video show breaking down tonight’s entire slate.
- MLB Summary – A summary of what we discussed in today’s Coaching Sessions & on the livestream.
- Ownership Projections
- Fantasy Baseball Elite Podcasts (Mans/Flowers/DraftCheat/Vlad)
- MLB Chat Room
- Daily Projections & Optimizer
- Splits Hub
- Umpire Factors
Wednesday, May 8th
Two days into this week and I think it is safe to say that we are back on track in terms of choosing starting pitching. Martin Perez on Monday and Griffin Canning yesterday both produced at a high level while not costing us top end salary. But I have to say, we need to see more big wins across the Elite Mafia. I know this is a cash game breakdown but there’s no reason we cannot use this information and smash some single entry GPPs.
Today we have a full 15 games going on across MLB but such is the case these days, they have fracture the games into early, late afternoon and evening affairs. By now you all should know the drill with me though. We’ve got Scott Bondar locking down the five-game early slate while I focus on the eight late games this evening. Those two late afternoon games can go straight to hell as nobody should ever pay attention to them.
One of the biggest questions we have in fantasy baseball right now is whether or not to believe in the recent Chris Sale turnaround. I am not really a believer but he keeps drawing premium matchups lately and his price keeps going up. Needless to say, I will not be using Sale in my cash game lineups here tonight.
The next step is deciding whether or not we believe in Matthew Boyd. This one is a lot more tricky cause there are sound reasons to believe in this breakout and even more so to believe in his matchup tonight. As much as I want to pay down on the hill tonight, I cannot rule out Boyd just yet.
What about Clayton Kershaw you ask? No fricking way am I going to use the fading superstar against the best hitting team Vs LHP at this price. Hard pass.
The San Francisco Giants scored 14 runs against the Rockies last night at Coors Field. If that doesn’t make you a believer in the power of Coors, I don’t know what will. Tonight we have the soft tossing Derek Holland and the wildly ineffective Jon Gray on the hill. Nevertheless, we will be targeting Coors bats here tonight.
We also have the red-hot Astros and Cubs with home games against well below average pitchers. Oh, and the Red Sox get gas can Andrew Cashner at Camden Yards. There are a lot of great spots to go with the bats so narrowing it down will take some work.
So, what is the final verdict? Dare we break out rule and pay up for Matt Boyd against the Angels? Which of these red hot offenses are we going to invest in for cash games tonight? How many Coors bats are too many? Dare we stack some Braves against the shell of what used to be Clayton Kershaw? Ooohhhh…that is what we call a tease ladies and gentlemen.
Now let’s skip the foreplay and get down to action. Here is the DFS MLB Cash Game Breakdown for Wednesday May 8th.
For more info and updated forecast, please check out our MLB Weather Center.
Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs –There is rain moving into Chicago late in the evening so there is a small chance for a delay. But it will be windy all night with gusts blowing in from right field at 15-20 MPH.
San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies –Oh boy. There’s a 50% chance of rain showers at Coors Field tonight with winds blowing straight in from center field. The storms really don’t seem to let up so this could be bad news for our Rockies/Giants stacks. Pay close attention to this all the way up until lineup lock.
- BOS -280
- HOU -240
- CHC -230
- LAD -180
- COL -150
Highest Run Expectancy
- HOU 5.63
- COL 5.41
- CHC 5.40
- BOS 5.38
- SF 4.59
Lowest Run Expectancy
- ATL 3.10
- BAL 3.12
- KC 3.37
- MIA 3.42
- LAA 3.98
Today's Pitchers Grid
1) Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers ($10,300/$9500) –I pretty much gave it away in the opening (you do read those, right?) but it’s really hard to escape Boyd here tonight. Boyd has the seventh most strikeouts in MLB with 57 and fourth highest K/9 with 11.57 this season. He’s also given up the least amount of HR’s (2) of any pitcher with at least 40 innings pitched this season. I’ve been saying all season that the Tigers pitchers, specifically Boyd are likely doing something to the baseballs. Boyd’s numbers are fantastic across the board despite throwing a similar pitch mix, for less velocity and the same amount of horizontal and vertical movement as he has in the past. Nevertheless, Boyd is lights out right now and has a fantastic matchup here tonight. The Angels don’t strikeout, so that is less than ideal but stay with me. The Angels also own the worst batting average (.204), fourth worst wOBA (.277) and eighth worst ISO (.134) against LHP. I feel really comfortable with Boyd here tonight specifically on DK where he is just $9500. But I am not going to commit to him until I can run through lineup scenarios with him at the helm. There are A LOT of bats to pay up for here tonight and spending this much on the mound isn’t an ideal spend. Let’s see what else is on the table for us.
2) Kyle Hendricks, RHP, Cubs ($8200/$8400) – There we go! An upper echelon pitcher with a fantastic matchup for a well below average price. Hendricks is a front of the rotation starter that throws four pitches at any time in the count, has plus control of them all, generates a ton of ground balls and limits the longball. He’s had an uneven start to the season though allowing more contact and generating less swings and misses than usual. But that changed in his last outing where he threw a complete game shutout against the Cardinals. A deeper look at that outing shows that Hendricks used his sinker less and both four seam fastball and curveball more. It’s the curve that interests me as he generated 25% swings and misses with it in that outing which is missing ingredient in his game so far in 2019. The Marlins have the third worst BA (.220), worst wOBA (.267) and the worst ISO (0.98) in MLB this season. It’s a very safe matchup with some strikeout upside potential and all for a very affordable price.
3) Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Angels ($8900/$8800) – I’ve had a very rocky relationship with Tyler Skaggs over the years. I was a big fan of him as a prospect in the Diamondbacks organization writing that “his curveball is a wicked bender rivaling the best in the minor leagues.” Well a fascinating thing about that is that after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2014, he never has the same whip, spin or drop on the pitch as he had previously. Well, he’s got that drop back here in 2019 with it grading out with the fourth most vertical drop of any curve in baseball. When you factor in horizontal movement also, only the no-hit king Mike Fiers has a better curveball than Skaggs. Skaggs has been getting a ton of swings (43.45%) on the pitch too but a disappointing 23.81% whiffs. But a 42.86% foul ball per swing rate and 60% groundball rate means the pitch is still crazy effective. The Tigers own the third worst strikeout rate 29.3% against LHP this season.
4) Sonny Gray, RHP, Reds ($7400/$8200) – Sonny Gray is the bottom of the pitching spectrum tonight as I really wouldn’t recommend anybody who is less expensive outside of maybe Jon Gray in a GPP setting. I had Gray in my writeup last time out and he did not do well striking out just two Giants in five innings of work. Despite the let down, Gray still has a 27.0% strikeout percentage on the season which is third highest on the slate. There will be some extra incentive as he pitches against his former team in his former park. Gray has done real well against the A’s bats allowing just a .218 BAA & .300 wOBA while striking out 25.4% of them. I’m always nervous throwing a pitcher out against the A’s but this is a special case.
(2018 Data) (Click here for more park factors!)
1) Coors Field – 46.5% above average for runs scored, 19.1% above average in HR, 17.6% above average in 2B, 216.7% above average in 3B.
2) Camden Yards – 30.8% above average for runs scored, 52.7% above average in HR, 42.5% above average in 3B.
Things To Target (Against)
1) Derek Holland, Giants – 4.19 xFIP, 44.4% FB%, 21.9% HR/FB%, 1.97 HR/9, 41.6% hard contact rate.
2) Andrew Cashner, Orioles – .266 BAA, 4.94 xFIP, 1.46 WHIP, 35.7% FB%, 14.6% HR/FB%, 1.49 HR/9, 46.1% hard contact rate.
3) Jose Urena, Marlins – .301 BAA, 4.64 xFIP, 1.54 WHIP, 16.7% HR/FB%, 1.59 HR/9, 7.5% swinging strike rate, 47.8% hard contact rate.
4) Tyler Skaggs, Angels – 4.08 xFIP, 36.6% FB%, 15.4% HR/FB%, 1.38 HR/9, 8.3% swinging strike rate, 42.5% hard contact rate.
5) Jorge Lopez, Royals – .260 BAA, 4.46 xFIP, 1.35 WHIP, 17.1% HR/FB%, 1.55 HR/9, 9.2% swinging strike rate, 38.5% hard contact rate.
Click here for our Stolen Base Target Tool. I strongly recommend checking it out to find a value play or to properly assess how likely a player on tonight’s slate is to steal.
The hottest hitters at each position.
|9||Vladimir Guerrero Jr.||TOR||150||650||46||119||105||4||12.6||16.00||0.294||0.324||0.321||0.411||0.615||0.428||172|
|10||Frank Schwindel||- - -||53||209||14||34||40||1||6.7||16.70||0.297||0.356||0.338||0.383||0.636||0.425||167|
|14||Ronald Acuna Jr.||ATL||82||360||24||72||52||17||13.6||23.60||0.313||0.311||0.283||0.394||0.596||0.412||157|
|15||Fernando Tatis Jr.||SDP||119||503||39||95||93||25||11.5||27.00||0.330||0.321||0.285||0.368||0.615||0.406||159|
Batter v Pitcher
For more, visit our BvP Matchup Page!
C – Chris Iannetta
1B – Justin Smoak, Miguel Cabrera, Anthony Rizzo, Mark Reynolds, Brandon Belt, Joey Votto
2B – Eric Sogard, Starlin Castro
3B – Nolan Arenado
SS – Xander Bogaerts, Andrelton Simmons, Brandon Crawford, Marcus Semien
OF – Ian Desmond, Chris Taylor, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Curtis Granderson, Charlie Blackmon, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte
Overall Hitter Rankings
- Jason Castro, Twins
- Jorge Alfaro, Marlins
- Willson Contreras, Cubs
- Buster Posey, Giants
- Mitch Garver, Twins
He wasn’t in our target against portion of this writeup, but Trent Thornton sucks and Jason Castro is really crushing the ball lately. Castro has two home runs, a .619 wOBA and an incredible 85.7% hard contact rate over his last four games. Alfaro is cheap and is third out of all MLB catchers in hard contact rate this season. Contreras wouldn’t be my first Cubs target tonight but he’s obviously as good as any other catcher in DFS tonight. If Posey can ever hit the ball in the air he can have a huge night at Coors Field tonight.
- Anthony Rizzo, Cubs
- Brandon Belt, Giants
- Rowdy Tellez, Blue Jays
- Mitch Moreland, Red Sox
- Mark Reynolds, Rockies
Rizzo is academic and shouldn’t need any explanation as to why h is our #1 first baseman tonight. Belt laced two doubles last night and always feasts at Coors Field so this is one of few times he will grade out this highly on my board. I really love Tellez matchup against Kyle Gibson. Tellez has nine hits over his last six games (.391 BA) and has tremendous power in the lower half of the zone where Gibson lives. Moreland will be popular as a part of many, many Red Sox stacks we are likely to see this evening.
- Whit Merrifield, Royals
- Jurickson Profar, A’s
- Joe Panik, Giants
- Ozzie Albies, Braves
Two-hit Whit single handedly destroyed the Astros last night and is in one of his locked in phases right now. Best of all is that his price isn’t reflective of this hot streak yet so we get one more day to enjoy the discount. Profar is another hot/cold player who has reached base 10 times over his last six games including going yard last night. Joe Panik is a “thing Jeff Mans discovered” after I wrote about his bending his knees to stop from topping the ball. Now he is in Coors Field facing a right hander in Jon Gray. If Albies was going up against just about any other lefty in major league baseball, he’d be our #1 2B tonight.
- Nolan Arenado, Rockies
- Kris Bryant, Cubs
- Eugenio Suarez, Reds
- Alex Bregman, Astros
- Rafael Devers, Red Sox
Count on spending up at 3B tonight no matter which way you go. I’m very curious as to which third baseman will be the heaviest owned after Arenado. Suarez crushes LHP while both Bryant and Bregman are on fire right now. Devers is the one guy here that will go unnoticed with all of these other sluggers on the bill. But he does have a .368 wOBA over his last seven games and has started to elevate his contact as well which means a power surge could be approaching.
- Corey Seager, Dodgers
- Brandon Crawford, Giants
- Trevor Story, Rockies
- Carlos Correa, Astros
Seager has found his groove finally but is still quite a value on both sites tonight. Foltynewicz has long has issue against left handed bats so Seager gets top billing in my shortstop list here. Crawford is yet another cheaper Coors bat for us to balance out our lineup builds. Correa has a 42.9% hard contact rate over his last five games to go along with a .388 wOBA.
- Cody Bellinger, Dodgers
- Mookie Betts, Red Sox
- Nick Senzel, Reds
- Kyle Schwarber, Cubs
- Max Kepler, Twins
- Ian Desmond, Rockies
- Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox
- Michael Brantley, Astros
- Jorge Soler, Royals
- JD Martinez, Red Sox
The outfield is very centrally located and quite expensive here today. We are going to want to target the Dodgers, Red Sox, Astros and Rockies outfielders. Senzel has shown an unnatural skill of barreling off-speed pitches which is a tremendous thing for his matchup against Brett Anderson tonight. Schwarber is about to go gangbusters soon and I know this because he is one of the most predictable hitters in MLB. When his pitches per plate appearance rises significantly, he is once again waiting for the pitcher to make a mistake and not trying to get every pitch he sees out of the ballpark. Make fun of Ian Desmond all that you want but he’s averaging 13.68 FD points over his last eight starts.